How Kentucky and Michigan State match up — with a game prediction
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Champions Classic preview: No. 4 Kentucky vs. Michigan State
Click below to read more of the Herald-Leader’s and Kentucky.com’s preview coverage ahead of Tuesday night’s Kentucky-Michigan State men’s basketball game scheduled for 7 p.m. at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis.
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How the No. 4 Kentucky Wildcats (2-0) and the Michigan State Spartans (1-1) match up at each position for Tuesday’s Champions Classic contest in Indianapolis — with a game prediction:
Small forward
▪ Kentucky freshman Chris Livingston (7 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 46.2% FGs, 50% treys) was the No. 12 ranked prospect in the 24/7 Sports Composite Rankings for the class of 2022. A 6-foot-6, 220-pound product of Akron, Ohio, Livingston brings Kentucky some needed physicality — a trait that figures to be important going against a Tom Izzo-coached team that starts four players who weigh in excess of 210 pounds.
▪ Michigan State’s Malik Hall (8 ppg, 7 rpg, 50% FGs) is a 6-8, 220-pound senior who has shifted to the three position after splitting time at the four spot for most of his college career. A career 39.6% three-point shooter entering this season, Hall is off to a slow start (1-of-5 in two games) from beyond the arc in 2022-23. In MSU’s agonizing 64-63 loss to No. 2 Gonzaga on Friday night, Hall, an Aurora, Ill., product, played well — 11 points, seven rebounds, two steals, 5-of-10 field-goal shooting.
Advantage: Michigan State.
Power forward
▪ The summer “buzz” around UK’s Jacob Toppin (11.5 ppg, 9.5 rpg, 2.0 steals) was that the 6-9, 205-pound Brooklyn, N.Y., product was sitting on a big senior season. Through Kentucky’s two season-opening wins over Howard and Duquesne, Toppin may be pressing in trying to live up to his preseason hype — he has made only nine of 24 shots, one of three three-pointers. As the Cats take a big step up in competition vs. MSU, John Calipari and Co. will need a more efficient offensive showing from Toppin.
▪ Michigan State senior Joey Hauser (10 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 35.3% FGs) had a nightmare in MSU’s loss to Gonzaga. The 6-9, 220-pound graduate student from Stevens Point, Wis., fouled out in 19 minutes after missing all five of his shot attempts, turning the ball over three times and finishing with two points and one rebound. The Marquette transfer’s performance in Michigan State’s season-opening 73-55 victory over Northern Arizona was more aligned with expectations for his play this season — 18 points and 10 rebounds.
Advantage: Even.
Center
▪ With reigning national player of the year Oscar Tshiebwe sidelined while recovering from a surgical procedure on a knee, Kentucky junior Lance Ware (4 ppg, 3 rpg, team-high five steals) has gotten two starts. The 6-9, 235-pound product of Camden, N.J., brings energy but is not much of an offensive threat. Ware is shooting 33.3 percent from the field and has made only four of the team-high 10 foul shots he has attempted.
▪ Michigan State junior Mady Sissoko (9 ppg, 7.5 rpg, 85.7% FGs) is a 6-9, 240-pound wide body. A native of Bafoulabe, Mali, West Africa, Sissoko had a big game in the Spartans’ loss to Gonzaga, scoring 14 points, grabbing nine rebounds and making four of five field-goal tries. Where Sissoko struggled against the Zags was at the foul line, where he went 6-of-11.
Advantage: Michigan State.
Shooting guard
▪ As expected, former Covington Catholic star CJ Fredrick (17 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 3 apg, 61.1% FGs, 50% treys) has given Kentucky a polished, high-efficiency offensive presence. Through two games, the 6-3, 185-pound redshirt senior is averaging 17 points while having attempted only 18 total shots. The Iowa transfer played against Michigan State only once in his Big Ten days. In an 84-78 Hawkeyes victory over the Spartans in 2020-21, Fredrick played 12 minutes and had two points, a rebound and an assist.
▪ A transfer from Northeastern, Tyson Walker (9 ppg, 3 rpg, 4 apg) is one of two point guards MSU starts. The 6-1, 180-pound senior from Westbury, N.Y., has not shot the ball well this season from distance, having made only one of six three-point tries. Walker played well vs. Gonzaga, making five of seven shots and finishing with 12 points and three assists.
Advantage: Kentucky.
Point guard
▪ Through two games, the college career of Kentucky freshman Cason Wallace is off to about as good a start as is imaginable. The 6-4, 193-pound Dallas product is averaging 11.5 points, 5.5 rebounds, 6.5 assists, 2 steals and shooting 58.8% from the field and 66.7% on three-pointers. The No. 8 prospect in the 24/7 Composite Rankings for the class of 2022, Wallace appears to have the physical maturity that will be required vs. a rugged MSU defense.
▪ Over the past two years, Michigan State’s A.J. Hoggard (10.5 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 7 apg, 33.3% FGs) has dropped some 30 pounds. The weight loss has seemed to turbo-charge the career of the 6-4, 210-pound junior from Coatesville, Pa. The lack of a consistent shot has been the drawback for Hoggard, a 40.2% shooter over his career. Hoggard did not shoot well vs. Gonzaga (2-of-8 field goals, 0-of-2 treys) but compensated by making eight of 10 free throws. He finished with 12 points, four rebounds, six assists and three steals vs. the Zags.
Advantage: Even.
Bench
▪ A 6-5, 205-pound transfer from Illinois State, Kentucky’s Antonio Reeves (20 ppg, 13-of-25 FGs, 10-of-18 treys) is UK’s leading scorer. … A 6-11, 225-pound Nigeria product, Ugonna Onyenso (7.5 ppg, 7 rpg, team-high seven blocked shots) is another UK freshman off to a strong start. … After missing Kentucky’s opener due to injury, All-SEC point guard Sahvir Wheeler returned with aplomb vs. Duquesne with 11 points, six rebounds, 11 assists and only two turnovers. … Obviously, the return from injury of Oscar Tshiebwe (17.4 ppg, 15.2 rpg, 60.6% FGs in 2021-22) would give the Cats a whole other dimension.
▪ Michigan’s 2021 Mr. Basketball, Pierre Brooks (9.5 ppg, 45.5% treys), a 6-6, 220-pound sophomore wing, had 14 points in 17 minutes vs. Northern Arizona. … A 6-4, 190-pound sophomore, Jaden Akins (5.5 ppg, 1.5 rpg, 29.4% FGs), had five points, two rebounds and two steals vs. Gonzaga. … Freshman Jaxon Kohler (3 ppg, 5.5 rpg), a 6-9 240-pound product of American Fork, Utah, was the No. 59-ranked prospect for 2022 in the 24/7 Sports Composite Rankings. … Frosh Tre Holloman (3 ppg, 1.5 rpg), a 6-2, 180-pound Minneapolis native, was rated No. 79 for 2022 in 24/7’s composite rankings.
Advantage: Kentucky.
Intangibles and history
▪ Kentucky leads the all-time series with Michigan State 14-11 and the Wildcats have won the past two meetings.
▪ This will be the fourth meeting between UK and MSU in the Champions Classic with Kentucky holding a 2-1 advantage.
▪ Kentucky has lost four of its last five games in the Champions Classic. UK’s sole victory in that stretch came over Michigan State in the 2019-20 event, a 69-62 Cats victory in a game in which MSU was ranked No. 1 and UK No. 2 in the country.
▪ As UK head man, John Calipari is 2-1 vs. Michigan State.
▪ MSU Coach Tom Izzo is 5-4 against Kentucky.
Advantage: Kentucky.
Prediction
Kentucky 71, Michigan State 67.
This story was originally published November 14, 2022 at 7:53 AM.
