How No. 19 Kentucky and Louisville match up — with a game prediction

How the No. 19 Kentucky Wildcats (8-4, 0-1 SEC) and the Louisville Cardinals (2-11, 0-3 ACC) match up at each position for Saturday’s men’s college basketball game in Rupp Arena at Central Bank Center:

Small forward

▪ Kentucky freshman forward Chris Livingston (5.8 points per game, 3.0 rebounds, 48% FGs, 43.8% FTs, 83.3% FTs) started for the second straight time in Kentucky’s 89-75 loss at Missouri, but did not have an easy go of things in Columbia. The 6-foot-6, 220-pound freshman made only one of five shots and scored two points in 12 minutes. The Akron, Ohio, product did grab four rebounds vs. Mizzou.

▪ Louisville’s Jae’Lyn Withers (8 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 43.7% FGs, 38.2% treys, 75% FTs) had 17 and 15 points back-to-back in U of L’s first two games of the season but has scored in double figures only twice in the Cardinals 11 games since. In Louisville’s 62-59 victory over Kentucky in 2020-21 — the most recent meeting between the Cats and Cards — Withers was terrific. The 6-9, 220-pound redshirt junior had 8 points and 9 rebounds and made all of his shots, going 3-of-3 on field goals and 2-of-2 free throws.

Advantage: Even.

Power forward

▪ UK’s Lance Ware (3.8 ppg, 3 rpg, 64% FGs, 40% FTs) earned his way back into John Calipari’s starting lineup with toughness displayed during Kentucky’s 63-53 loss to UCLA two games ago. The 6-9, 225-pound junior had six points, six rebounds and three assists in the Cats’ loss at Missouri on Wednesday night. The Camden, N.J., product had four points and four rebounds in UK’s loss at U of L in 2020-21.

▪ U of L’s Brandon Huntley-Hatfield (8.1 ppg, 6.3 rpg, 44.7% FGs, 33.3% treys) had a double-double, 12 points and 12 rebounds, in the Cardinals’ 76-64 loss at North Carolina State on Dec. 22 in U of L’s most recent game. The 6-10, 250-pound sophomore from Clarksville, Tenn., played last season for Rick Barnes at Tennessee. Huntley-Hatfield played well against UK last season, making 8-of-15 shots and averaging 6.3 points and 4 rebounds in 3 games vs. the Cats.

Advantage: Louisville.

Center

▪ Kentucky star Oscar Tshiebwe (15.8 ppg, 13.6 rpg, 1.7 steals, 1.4 blocks, 57.8% FGs) had 23 points and 19 rebounds and made six of eight field-goal attempts in the loss at Missouri. In two of UK’s past three games, the 6-9, 255-pound senior has struggled from the foul line. Tshiebewe went 0-of-4 on foul shots vs. UCLA and 11-of-17 at Missouri. Since the UK-U of L game was canceled last season due to COVID-19 issues within the Cardinals program, Tshiebwe will be playing against the Cards for the first time since transferring from West Virginia.

▪ After a slow start to 2022-23 while he battled conditioning issues, Louisville’s Sydney Curry (5.1 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 57.8% FGs, 56% FTs) has now scored in double figures in four straight games. The 6-8, 270-pound senior from Fort Wayne, Ind., had 13 points and 19 rebounds in U of L’s 61-55 win over Florida A&M on Dec. 17. Curry had 16 points and five boards in the loss at N.C. State.

Advantage: Kentucky.

Shooting guard

▪ Kentucky freshman Cason Wallace (12.4 ppg, 3,6 rpg, 4.1 apg, 2.5 steals, 47.4% treys) has averaged 23 points over UK’s last two games. The 6-4, 193-pound freshman from Dallas has scored in double figures in seven of Kentucky’s 12 games. Wallace will try to continue the Calipari-era history of Kentucky star freshman guards coming up big vs. U of L.

▪ Louisville redshirt freshman guard Mike James (6.8 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 45.2% FGs) played one of his best games of the season at North Carolina State. The 6-5, 215-pound Orlando, Fla., product hit five of six shots and had 10 points, five rebounds and two steals vs. the Wolfpack. It was the first double-figure-scoring performance for James since he had 16 in the Cardinals’ season-opening 67-66 loss to Bellarmine.

Advantage: Kentucky.

Point guard

▪ Kentucky’s Sahvir Wheeler (9.1 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 6.5 apg, 41.3% FGs) has scored in double figures in four of the past five games. The 5-9, 180-pound senior from Houston had 12 points, eight assists and hit two of three treys in the loss at Missouri. Wheeler is now making 39.3% on three-point tries this season.

▪ Louisville’s El Ellis (17.1 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 4.3 apg) made only two of 11 shots at North Carolina State but scored 15 points thanks, largely, to making 10 of 11 foul shots. Though Louisville’s primary ball-handler and scorer, the 6-3, 180-pound senior from Durham, N.C., has not been an especially efficient offensive performer. Ellis has more turnovers (64) than assists (56) and is shooting 37.8% on field-goal tries.

Advantage: Louisville.

Bench

▪ Kentucky’s Jacob Toppin (9.7 ppg, 6.3 rpg, 39.5% FGs, 14.3% treys, 63.9% FTs) appears to have lost confidence since being removed from the starting lineup two games ago. The 6-9, 205-pound senior from Brooklyn, N.Y., had no points and three turnovers in the loss at Missouri. ... CJ Fredrick (7.3 ppg, 41.8% FGs, 38.8% treys) played only three minutes at Mizzou before leaving the game for good with a finger injury. ... True freshman wing Adou Thiero (4 ppg, 2.8 rpg, 50% FGs) got 17 minutes of run late in the Missouri game and produced five points, three rebounds, an assist and a steal.

▪ Louisville freshman Kamari Lands (5.6 ppg, 1.9 rpg) has struggled with his shot. The 6-8, 220-pound Indianapolis product is making 24.6% of his field-goal attempts and 24.3% of his three-point tries. ... Ex-Bardstown High School star J.J. Traynor (5.3 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 44.4% FGs, 41.7% treys) has made 6-of-11 shots over the past 3 games. ... Sophomore guard Hercy Miller (2.4 ppg, 1.2 rpg, 32% field goals) had 5 points in 6 minutes vs. N.C. State. Miller is the son of rapper Percy Miller, better known as Master P.

Advantage: Kentucky.

Intangibles and history

▪ Kentucky leads the all-time series with Louisville 37-17 and has won 17 of the last 24 meetings.

▪ As Kentucky head coach, John Calipari is 11-3 vs. U of L.

▪ This will be the first UK-U of L game for Kenny Payne as Cardinals head man. Payne was an assistant to Calipari at Kentucky from 2010 through 2020.

▪ Kentucky is 27-27 in its 54 most-recent games vs. power-conference competition dating back to the final week of the 2019-20 regular season.

▪ Louisville is 5-26 in its last 31 games.

Advantage: Kentucky.

Prediction

Kentucky 81, Louisville 69.

This story was originally published December 29, 2022 at 6:50 PM.

Mark Story

Lexington Herald-Leader

859-444-4731

Mark Story has worked in the Lexington Herald-Leader sports department since Aug. 27, 1990, and has been a Herald-Leader sports columnist since 2001. I have covered every Kentucky-Louisville football game since 1994, every UK-U of L basketball game but three since 1996-97 and every Kentucky Derby since 1994. Support my work with a digital subscription