Mark Story

First Scouting Report: Can UK earn a signature win with an upset at No. 7 Alabama?

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Game day: Kentucky 74, LSU 71

Click below for more of the Herald-Leader’s and Kentucky.com’s coverage of Tuesday night’s men’s basketball game between Kentucky and LSU in Rupp Arena.

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A look ahead to the Kentucky Wildcats’ next men’s basketball game:

The opponent

Kentucky (10-4, 1-1 SEC) will face No. 7 Alabama (12-2, 2-0 SEC) on Saturday, Jan. 7, at Coleman Coliseum (capacity 15,383) on the campus of the University of Alabama in Tuscaloosa:

The game will tip off at 1 p.m. (EST) and be telecast by ESPN.

Coach Nate Oats and the Crimson Tide improved to 2-0 in SEC play late Tuesday night with an 84-62 win over Ole Miss at Tuscaloosa.

Series history

Kentucky leads the all-time series with Alabama 116-40 and has won 14 of the past 17 meetings.

As UK head man, John Calipari is 18-5 vs. the Crimson Tide.

As Alabama head man, Nate Oats is 2-3 vs. Kentucky. Oats is 2-4 against the Wildcats overall.

Alabama head coach Nate Oats, left, is 2-3 vs. Kentucky head coach John Calipari, right, since becoming Crimson Tide head man before the 2019-20 season. Overall, Oats is 2-4 vs. UK as a college head coach.
Alabama head coach Nate Oats, left, is 2-3 vs. Kentucky head coach John Calipari, right, since becoming Crimson Tide head man before the 2019-20 season. Overall, Oats is 2-4 vs. UK as a college head coach. Mark Mahan

Most recent meeting

With point guards Sahvir Wheeler and TyTy Washington both nursing injuries, Kellan Grady played 39 minutes, mostly with the ball in his hands, and scored 25 points on 7-of-9 three-point shooting to spark Kentucky to a 90-81 victory over Alabama on Feb . 19, 2022, in Rupp Arena.

With injuries sidelining point guards Sahvir Wheeler and TyTy Washington, Kellan Grady (31) shifted to the “one position” and led UK to a 90-81 win over Alabama while also scoring 25 points.
With injuries sidelining point guards Sahvir Wheeler and TyTy Washington, Kellan Grady (31) shifted to the “one position” and led UK to a 90-81 win over Alabama while also scoring 25 points. Silas Walker swalker@herald-leader.com

Power rankings

The NCAA NET Rankings have Alabama No. 8, Kentucky No. 41.

In the Pomeroy Ratings, Alabama is No. 9, Kentucky No. 14.

The Sagarin Ratings have Alabama No. 12, Kentucky No. 29.

Know your foe

1. Unlike Kentucky, Alabama has stacked together some impressive non-league wins. The Crimson Tide have two victories over teams that were ranked No. 1, beating North Carolina 104-103 in four overtimes on Nov. 27 in the Phil Knight Invitational in Portland, Oregon, and winning at then-top-ranked Houston 71-65 on Dec. 10.

Alabama also has victories over then-No. 12 Michigan State, 81-70, on Nov. 24 in the PKI; over Memphis, 91-88, on Dec. 13; and a road win over then-No. 21 Mississippi State, 78-67, on Dec. 28.

2. Turnovers played a big role in the two games Alabama lost in the pre-conference season. In an 82-67 loss to then-No. 20 Connecticut on Nov. 25 in the PKI, Alabama turned the ball over 21 times to UConn’s 12. The Huskies outscored Bama 23-11 on points off of turnovers.

In a 100-90 defeat at the hands of then-No. 15 Gonzaga on Dec. 15 in Birmingham, Alabama turned the ball over 21 times, compared to nine by the Zags. Gonzaga’s advantage in points off of turnovers, 23-11, was decisive in the game’s outcome.

3. Alabama Coach Nate Oats is one of the SEC’s foremost adherents of analytics-driven, “modern” offense with its emphasis on heavy utilization of the three-point arc and not taking two-point shot attempts anywhere but near the rim.

Through games of Monday night, Alabama was taking more three-point shots, 29.4 a game, than all but six teams in the country. The Crimson Tide was averaging 10.1 made treys a game, 12th-best in men’s college hoops.

Interestingly, Alabama’s three-point percentage, 34.29 going into Tuesday night’s game with Ole Miss, stood only 153rd in the nation.

Nevertheless, a Crimson Tide roster fortified with multiple incoming transfers has so far shot the trey far-more accurately than the 30.9-percent success rate from behind the arc that last year’s Alabama team managed.

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This story was originally published January 3, 2023 at 10:19 PM.

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Mark Story
Lexington Herald-Leader
Mark Story has worked in the Lexington Herald-Leader sports department since Aug. 27, 1990, and has been a Herald-Leader sports columnist since 2001. I have covered every Kentucky-Louisville football game since 1994, every UK-U of L basketball game but three since 1996-97 and every Kentucky Derby since 1994. Support my work with a digital subscription
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Game day: Kentucky 74, LSU 71

Click below for more of the Herald-Leader’s and Kentucky.com’s coverage of Tuesday night’s men’s basketball game between Kentucky and LSU in Rupp Arena.