Blue Preview: Storyline, odds and players to watch in Kentucky football at Louisville
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Preview: Kentucky at No. 10 Louisville
Click below to read more of the Herald-Leader’s and Kentucky.com’s preview coverage ahead of Saturday’s UK-U of L football game at noon in Louisville.
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Kentucky at No. 9 Louisville
When: Noon (EST) Saturday.
TV: ABC.
Announcers: Play-by-play, Joe Tessitore; analysis, Jesse Palmer; sideline, Katie George.
Radio: WLAP-AM 630, WBUL-FM 98.1.
Satellite radio: TBA.
Records: Kentucky 6-5, 3-5 SEC; Louisville 10-1, 7-1 ACC.
Series history: Kentucky leads the all-time football series with Louisville 19-15 and has won the past four meetings and five of the last six.
Most-recent meeting: Will Levis threw two touchdown passes and Matt Ruffolo went 4-for-4 on field-goal attempts to lead Kentucky to a 26-13 victory over Louisville on Nov. 26, 2022, at Kroger Field.
Line: Louisville is favored by 7.5 points.
The storyline
Coming off a dispiriting loss at South Carolina, Kentucky will seek to salvage something from a second straight disappointing season by derailing the Louisville joyride that has been Jeff Brohm’s first season as Cardinals coach. Favored U of L will be seeking to claim the Governor’s Cup trophy for the first time since 2017.
The number to watch
Defensive third-down conversion percentage. The Louisville defense is one of the best in the FBS at “getting off the field” on third down. The Cardinals are allowing foes to move the chains on third down only 29.5% of the time (43 of 146), good for 11th in the FBS. Conversely, Kentucky’s defense has been one of the worst in the FBS on third down. UK is allowing conversions on 43.4% (66 of 152) of the third downs it has defended, ranking 105th out of 130 FBS teams. It’s hard to imagine UK pulling the upset if the third-down defensive trends for both teams are not flipped.
The big threat
Jawhar Jordan. The Louisville running back is 22nd in the FBS in rushing with 1,009 yards. On the season, the 5-foot-10, 185-pound redshirt junior is averaging a robust 6.7 yards a carry and has scored 11 touchdowns. A transfer from Syracuse, Jordan ran well for U of L against Kentucky last season in Lexington, gaining 145 yards on 22 carries. If Jordan has a big day, it will also open up the play-action passing component in Jeff Brohm’s playbook.
On the spot
Devin Leary. His one season directing the Kentucky offense has not gone as expected for the ex-North Carolina State quarterback star. The 6-1, 217-pound super-senior had a rugged showing in UK’s 17-14 loss at South Carolina last week, completing only 17 of 34 passes against what had been a statistically porous Gamecocks pass defense. Leary also committed two costly turnovers. Directing a Governor’s Cup rivalry upset would allow Leary to write a happy ending to what has been a difficult season.
The mood
Is both angry and resigned. Kentucky’s mistake-filled play in the loss at South Carolina served to erupt a volcano of fan frustration that had built over what has now been two consecutive UK football seasons in which Mark Stoops’ program has fallen well short of meeting the Big Blue Nation’s expectations. Whether Kentucky is capable of a “circle the wagons” last stand at Louisville is very much an open question.
This story was originally published November 20, 2023 at 7:39 AM.
