Mark Story

How Kentucky football and No. 3 Texas match up — with a game prediction

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Preview: Kentucky at No. 3 Texas

Click below to read more of the Herald-Leader’s and Kentucky.com’s preview coverage ahead of Saturday’s Kentucky-Texas football game at Austin, Texas.

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How the Kentucky Wildcats (4-6, 1-6 SEC) and the No. 3 Texas Longhorns (9-1, 5-1 SEC) match up at each position for Saturday’s SEC football game — with a game prediction:

Quarterbacks

After being knocked from the game in Kentucky’s 28-18 loss at then-No. 7 Tennessee with an apparent head injury, Brock Vandagriff (57.8% completions, 1,542 passing yards, nine touchdowns, seven interceptions) returned to start in UK’s 48-6 win over FCS foe Murray State last week. The 6-foot-3, 217-pound junior played only the first half, completing 12 of 19 throws for 183 yards with two touchdowns and an interception. True freshman Cutter Boley, the former Lexington Christian Academy star, played the second half vs. Murray State and looked good. The 6-5, 214-pound Boley completed 10 of 14 passes for 130 yards and two TDs and ran twice for 21 yards. Mark Stoops said this week that Vandagriff remains the UK starter.

Quinn Ewers (68.4% completions, 1,898 yards, 21 TDs, six picks) has a 23-7 record as the Texas starting QB and has thrown for at least one touchdown in 21 straight games. In the Longhorns’ 20-10 win at Arkansas last week, Ewers completed 20 of 32 passes for 176 yards and two touchdowns. Backup Arch Manning (67.8% completions, 939 yards, nine TDs, two interceptions) has started twice this season. The redshirt freshman completed 15 of 29 passes for 258 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions in a 51-3 win over Louisiana Monroe on Sept. 21. The following week, Manning went 26-of-31 for 325 yards and two TDs in a 35-13 SEC victory at Mississippi State.

Advantage: Texas.

In Kentucky’s 48-6 win over Murray State last week, true freshman quarterback Cutter Boley (8) played the entire second half and completed 10 of 14 passes for 130 yards and two touchdowns and ran twice for 21 yards.
In Kentucky’s 48-6 win over Murray State last week, true freshman quarterback Cutter Boley (8) played the entire second half and completed 10 of 14 passes for 130 yards and two touchdowns and ran twice for 21 yards. Ryan C. Hermens rhermens@herald-leader.com

Running backs

Kentucky redshirt freshman Jamarion Wilcox (474 rushing yards, two touchdowns, 6.9 yards a carry) ran for 123 yards and a TD in the win over Murray State. The 5-10, 197-pound product of Douglasville, Georgia, has now gone over 100 yards rushing in UK’s past two games. Senior Demie Sumo-Karngbaye (505 rushing yards, five TDs, 4.6 yards a carry; 18 receptions for 142 yards) ran 11 times for 48 yards and a TD last week vs. Murray State.

Texas uses a three-headed running back rotation. Quintrevion Wisner (468 rushing yards, two touchdowns, 4.8 yards a carry) was one of the stars of the Longhorns’ 34-3 win over archrival Oklahoma on Oct. 12, running for 118 yards and a touchdown and catching four passes for 12 yards. In the win at Arkansas, Jaydon Blue (459, five, 5.1) carried 14 times for 83 yards and a touchdown and caught three passes for 19 yards. A freshman from Gainesville, Florida, Jerrick Gibson (332, four, 5.0) ran for 100 yards and a touchdown vs. his hometown Gators in the Longhorns’ 49-17 strafing of Florida.

Advantage: Texas.

Texas running back Quintrevion Wisner (26) leads the Longhorns in rushing with 468 yards.
Texas running back Quintrevion Wisner (26) leads the Longhorns in rushing with 468 yards. Mikala Compton USA TODAY NETWORK

Wide receivers

Since returning from injury three games back, Kentucky true freshman Hardley Gilmore (four receptions, 119 receiving yards, one touchdown) has caught at least one pass in each game in which he has appeared. The 6-1, 178-pound product of Belle Glade, Florida, caught two passes for a team high 72 yards and his first college touchdown last week vs. Murray State. Sophomore Anthony Brown-Stephens (five, 77, two) also had a big game vs. the Racers, catching three passes for 51 yards and two TDs.

Alabama transfer Isaiah Bond (30 catches, 483 yards, five touchdowns) had four catches for 48 yards last week at Arkansas. The 5-11, 180-pound junior from Buford, Georgia, has caught at least one pass in all nine games in which he has played in 2024. Matthew Golden (29, 417, eight), a 6-foot, 195-pound junior from Houston, has caught a combined five touchdowns in the past three games. True freshman Ryan Wingo (20, 332, two) and sophomore DeAndre Moore (20, 263, five) are also highly capable.

Advantage: Texas.

Kentucky true freshman wide receiver Hardley Gilmore (17) celebrates after catching a 52-yard touchdown pass from Brock Vandagriff for his first college TD during UK’s 48-6 win over Murray State last week.
Kentucky true freshman wide receiver Hardley Gilmore (17) celebrates after catching a 52-yard touchdown pass from Brock Vandagriff for his first college TD during UK’s 48-6 win over Murray State last week. Ryan C. Hermens rhermens@herald-leader.com

Tight ends

Four different Kentucky tight ends caught passes in the win over Murray State. Junior Jordan Dingle (nine receptions, 71 yards, one TD) returned vs. MSU after missing three games due to injury and caught two passes for 17 yards. True freshman Willie Rodriguez (two, 41) had a 16-yard reception vs. the Racers.

Gunnar Helm is the leading receiver on the season for Texas. The 6-5, 250-pound senior from Englewood, Colorado, has caught 37 passes for 493 yards and three touchdowns. Helm has made at least three receptions in each of the Longhorns’ past six games.

Advantage: Texas.

Texas tight end Gunnar Helm (85) scored a touchdown during the Longhorns’ 49-17 beatdown of Florida on Nov. 9 in Austin.
Texas tight end Gunnar Helm (85) scored a touchdown during the Longhorns’ 49-17 beatdown of Florida on Nov. 9 in Austin. Mikala Compton USA TODAY NETWORK

Offensive line

Kentucky coach Mark Stoops confirmed this week that UK starting right tackle Gerald Mincey is “out for an extended period of time” with a knee injury. As a result, this week’s UK depth chart at last reflected the on-the-field reality of the past two games: Redshirt freshman Malachi Wood, the former Madison Central standout, is now the Wildcats’ starter at right tackle.

Texas center Jake Majors is the anchor of the Longhorns’ offensive front. The 6-3, 315-pound senior from Prosper, Texas, has started 51 games in his Texas career, only the eighth Longhorns player to reach 50 career starts. Major was named the Outland Trophy National Player of the Week following Texas’ 31-12 road win at Michigan in Week 2.

Advantage: Texas.

Texas center Jake Majors (65) has made 51 career starts, only the eighth Longhorns player ever to pass the 50-start threshold.
Texas center Jake Majors (65) has made 51 career starts, only the eighth Longhorns player ever to pass the 50-start threshold. Aaron E. Martinez USA TODAY NETWORK

Defensive line

Kentucky senior nose guard Josaih Hayes made his season debut vs. Murray State after recuperating from a torn Achilles tendon suffered in spring practice. The 6-3, 322-pound product of Horn Lake, Mississippi, made an impact, too, making four tackles, two of them solo. Rush end J.J. Weaver, who has not played since suffering an injury in UK’s 24-10 loss to Auburn on Oct. 26, is listed as “probable” to play at Texas on Kentucky’s initial injury report of the week.

In what is not good news for a Kentucky offense that has struggled to pass protect on its flanks, Texas plays downhill from the edges. Rush end Barryn Sorrell, a 6-4, 260-pound senior from New Orleans, leads the Longhorns with 11 quarterback hurries. A 6-3, 245-pound freshman from Dallas, edge Colin Simmons leads Texas with six QB sacks.

Advantage: Texas.

Kentucky nose guard Josaih Hayes crossed his arms in celebration after sacking Louisville quarterback Jack Plummer in UK’s 38-31 defeat of U of L in last year regular season finale.
Kentucky nose guard Josaih Hayes crossed his arms in celebration after sacking Louisville quarterback Jack Plummer in UK’s 38-31 defeat of U of L in last year regular season finale. Jeff Faughender USA TODAY NETWORK

Linebackers

Kentucky MLB Jamon Dumas-Johnson (team-high 54 tackles, seven tackles for loss, three QB sacks) is expected back this week after not playing vs. Murray State. In his first season at linebacker after transitioning from safety/nickelback, SLB Alex Afari has made 45 tackles and nine tackles for loss.

Texas MLB Anthony Hill Jr. enters play this week 12th in the SEC in tackles with 68. The 6-3, 235-pound sophomore from Denton, Texas, has also made 5.5 sacks, 11 TFL and has hurried the opposing quarterback four times and forced three fumbles.

Advantage: Texas.

After moving from the secondary to strong side linebacker, Kentucky’s Alex Afari (3) has made 45 tackles and nine tackles for loss.
After moving from the secondary to strong side linebacker, Kentucky’s Alex Afari (3) has made 45 tackles and nine tackles for loss. Brian Simms bsimms@herald-leader.com

Defensive backs

Kentucky free safety Jordan Lovett picked off two Murray State passes last week. The 6-2, 205-pound junior from North Hardin is second on the UK team with 52 tackles. Star cornerback Maxwell Hairston, who had not played since Sept. 21 for medical reasons, returned vs. Murray State and logged 13 plays.

Texas stands seventh in the FBS in interceptions with 15 picks. Field cornerback Jahdae Barron (38 tackles, eight pass breakups) is tied for seventh in the country with four picks. Boundary safety Andrew Mukuba (34 tackles) has three interceptions. Field safety Michael Taaffe is second on the team with 49 tackles.

Advantage: Texas.

Kentucky free safety Jordan Lovett (25) intercepted two passes during UK’s 48-6 win over Murray State last week.
Kentucky free safety Jordan Lovett (25) intercepted two passes during UK’s 48-6 win over Murray State last week. Jordan Prather USA TODAY NETWORK

Special teams

Kentucky place-kicker Alex Raynor is perfect on the season on field-goal attempts, 15-of-15, with a long of 55 yards. Punter Aidan Laros punted only once vs. Murray State, for 53 yards. On the season, Laros is averaging 45.5 yards on 21 punts. Punt returner Ja’Mori Maclin had a good game vs. Murray State, averaging 14.5 yards on two returns.

Texas place-kicker Bert Auburn is 8-of-11 on field goal tries, but is only 3-of-6 from outside of 40 yards. Punter Michael Kern is averaging 40.2 yards a kick and has stopped seven of 24 punts inside the opponents’ 20-yard line.

Advantage: Kentucky.

Texas place-kicker Bert Auburn is 8-of-11 on field goal attempts this season with a long of 45 yards.
Texas place-kicker Bert Auburn is 8-of-11 on field goal attempts this season with a long of 45 yards. Aaron E. Martinez USA TODAY NETWORK

Prediction

Texas 34, Kentucky 13.

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Mark Story
Lexington Herald-Leader
Mark Story has worked in the Lexington Herald-Leader sports department since Aug. 27, 1990, and has been a Herald-Leader sports columnist since 2001. I have covered every Kentucky-Louisville football game since 1994, every UK-U of L basketball game but three since 1996-97 and every Kentucky Derby since 1994. Support my work with a digital subscription
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Preview: Kentucky at No. 3 Texas

Click below to read more of the Herald-Leader’s and Kentucky.com’s preview coverage ahead of Saturday’s Kentucky-Texas football game at Austin, Texas.