Kentucky basketball fans should savor this squad — but there is one thing to worry about
No one has asked, but if I were offering advice to Kentucky men’s basketball fans for the remainder of the 2024-25 season, it would be basic:
Step out of the typical fixation on hanging “banner number nine” and just appreciate the fun brand of basketball and appealing cast of players that Mark Pope has brought to the commonwealth in his first season as top Cat.
Alas, since that suggestion runs contrary to the essential nature of the Kentucky basketball experience, I will offer another helpful tip. If you are the kind of Wildcats basketball fan who must have something to fret over, worry about this:
Barring substantial improvement, UK’s defensive metrics suggest it would be unprecedented for the Cats to win the 2025 NCAA title.
In the aftermath of Kentucky’s scintillating 106-100 victory against Florida on Saturday at Rupp Arena, the Wildcats stand fifth in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency in the Pomeroy Rankings.
Only one team — Alabama (91.1) — in NCAA Division I men’s hoops is averaging more points per game than is Kentucky (90.2).
However, according to the Pomeroy ratings, the high-profile power rankings produced by hoops statistical guru Ken Pomeroy, UK is 91st in defensive efficiency through games of Jan. 5.
Simply put, there is no recent precedent for a team with such a defensive efficiency mark cutting down the nets on the final Monday of the season.
Since the Pomeroy ratings began with the 1996-97 season, 27 teams have won men’s NCAA titles. (Remember, there was no champion crowned in 2019-20 due to the effort to contain the coronavirus pandemic.)
From among those 27 NCAA championship teams, the lowest defensive efficiency ranking was compiled by Baylor in 2020-21 — and Scott Drew’s Bears finished No. 22.
Every other national championship team, starting with Arizona in 1997 through Connecticut’s repeat last season, has been 18th or better in the defensive efficiency metric. Eighteen of those 27 NCAA champs have finished in the top 10 in defensive efficiency.
Interestingly, for all the contrasts that have been drawn between Pope’s first Kentucky team and the Wildcats squads fielded by John Calipari as his UK coaching tenure went stale over its final four seasons, there are significant similarities between the offensive and defensive efficiency rankings of the 2023-24 and 2024-25 Cats.
Last season, Kentucky finished seventh in the nation in offensive efficiency but 109th in defensive efficiency.
That’s not too far off the current Cats’ rankings of fifth (offensive) and 91st (defensive).
A season ago, as UK went 23-10 and failed to win either a SEC Tournament or an NCAA Tournament game, the Wildcats ranked second in the nation in scoring (an average of 89 points a game) but a dreadful 344th in scoring defense (allowing 79.7 points a game).
So far, the 2024-25 Cats are allowing 73.4 points a game, and stand No. 237 in NCAA Division I in scoring defense.
Kentucky’s current defensive efficiency ranking of 91st is worse than which any of the five BYU teams that Pope coached (2019-20 through 2023-24) concluded. With the Cougars, none of Pope’s teams finished worse than 70th (in 2021-22) in defensive efficiency.
As is much discussed annually in the run up to Selection Sunday, 25 of the 27 NCAA champions since the inception of the Pomeroy ratings have finished with both their adjusted offensive and defensive rankings in the top 20.
Let’s stipulate that there is a massive amount of basketball remaining before March Madness commences.
Nevertheless, as of Monday morning, there were eight “dual qualifying” teams in 2024-25 — Auburn (No. 1 offensive efficiency, No. 14 defensive), Duke (No. 9, No. 3), Houston (No. 14, No. 2), Tennessee (No. 20, No. 1), Iowa State (No. 8, No. 9), Gonzaga (No. 6, No. 19), Marquette (No. 15, No. 16) and Illinois (No. 19, No. 13).
If the NCAA Tournament began today, history says the 2025 national champion would all but certainly come from among those eight teams.
Still, even if it would be unprecedented for a team with Kentucky’s current defensive efficiency rating to win the national title, the good news is there are recent examples of teams making the Final Four with similar Pomeroy rating profiles to UK’s.
In 2023, Miami made it to the national semifinals in a season in which it ended the year No. 6 in offensive efficiency but No. 99 in defensive efficiency.
Last season, Alabama went to the Final Four in a campaign that concluded with the Crimson Tide ranked No. 2 in adjusted offensive efficiency but No. 111 in defensive efficiency.
So for the rest of 2024-25, Kentucky backers have three approaches from which to choose:
1.) Hope UK’s defensive metrics improve dramatically by March;
2.) Hope Kentucky’s elite offense can carry it on a March Madness run similar to Miami’s in 2023 or Bama’s last year;
3.) Not worry at all about the big picture and just relish what promises to be an entertaining ride.
For what it’s worth, I’d still recommend No. 3.
