How No. 8 Kentucky matches up against No. 4 Alabama — with a game prediction
How the No. 8 Kentucky Wildcats (14-3, 3-1 SEC) and the No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide (14-3, 3-1 SEC) match up at each position for Saturday’s men’s college basketball game at Rupp Arena — with a game prediction:
Small forward
▪ After an uneven start to the season, Kentucky’s Jaxson Robinson (13.1 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 43% FGs, 33.9% treys) is on a tear. The 6-foot-6, 192-pound super-senior has put up back-to-back games of 27 and 22 points to lead UK to wins at then-No. 14 Mississippi State (95-90) and over No. 11 Texas A&M (81-69). A product of Ada, Oklahoma, Robinson has made 17 of 29 shots, 12 of 23 3-pointers over those past two games. Though Robinson spent his first two college seasons playing for Texas A&M (2020-21) and Arkansas (2021-22), respectively, he has never appeared in a game vs. Alabama.
▪ Alabama’s Grant Nelson (12 ppg, 8.6 rpg, 22 blocks, 53.2% FGs, 25% treys, 62.9% FTs) comes to Lexington in a scoring funk. The 6-11, 230-pound super-senior has failed to score in double figures in three straight games. In that span, Nelson, a product of Devils Lake, North Dakota, has made only 8 of 21 shots and has missed all six of his 3-point attempts. A transfer from North Dakota State, Nelson is capable of big performances on big stages. He had 24 points, 12 rebounds and five blocked shots in Alabama’s 89-87 win over North Carolina in last season’s NCAA Tournament round of 16. In UK’s 117-95 win over Bama last season in Lexington, Nelson had 13 points and seven boards.
Advantage: Even.
Power forward
▪ Though playing with a balky back, Kentucky super-senior Andrew Carr (11.4 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 41 assists vs. 14 turnovers, 54.8% FGs) continues to produce. The 6-11, 225-pound super-senior has scored in double figures in eight of UK’s past nine games and 10 of its last 12. In the win over Texas A&M on Tuesday night, Carr, a product of West Chester, Pennsylvania, made 6 of 9 shots and had 13 points and four rebounds in 25 minutes.
▪ Alabama’s Jarin Stevenson (4.9 ppg, 3.6 rpg) has struggled with his shot in 2024-25. The 6-11, 215-pound sophomore is making only 35.6 percent of his field goal attempts, 22 percent of his 3-point tries and 55.3 percent of his foul shots. A product of Chapel Hill, North Carolina, Stevenson was productive in the Crimson Tide’s 74-64 upset loss to Mississippi on Tuesday night, scoring nine points and claiming seven rebounds. Stevenson had five points and two rebounds vs. Kentucky last season.
Advantage: Kentucky.
Center
▪ Kentucky super-senior Amari Williams (9.8 ppg, 8.6 rpg, 45 assists vs. 37 turnovers, team-high 26 blocked shots) played big for the Wildcats in the win over Texas A&M. The 7-foot, 262-pound product of Nottingham, England, had eight points, 12 rebounds, four assists, a steal and a block vs. the Aggies. A transfer from Drexel, Williams has made 17 of 26 shots over UK’s past five games.
▪ After a standout four-season career at Rutgers, Clifford Omoruyi transferred to Alabama for his super-senior season. The 6-11, 250-pound native of Benin City, Nigeria, is averaging 7.1 ppg and 6.1 rpg while shooting a robust 74.6% for the Tide. Recruited largely to provide Alabama with defensive rim protection, Omoruyi has blocked 18 shots this season and 239 in his college career.
Advantage: Even.
Shooting guard
▪ Against Texas A&M, Kentucky leading scorer Otega Oweh (team-high 15.4 ppg, 4 rpg, team-high 29 steals, 49.7% FGs) continued his streak of having scored in double figures in every game this season by cashing in four free throws in the final minute to reach 11 points. A 6-4, 215-pound product of Newark, New Jersey, Oweh tied his season high with four assists vs. the Aggies. While a freshman at Oklahoma in 2022-23, Oweh played against Alabama in the SEC/Big 12 Challenge. He scored three points in 10 minutes in a 93-69 Sooners’ rout of the Crimson Tide.
▪ Though not the most-hyped member of a lauded 2024 Alabama recruiting class, Labaron Philon (11.4 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 65 assists vs. 27 turnovers, team-high 21 steals) has had the most productive freshman season. The 6-4, 177-pound product of Mobile, Alabama, was the No. 40 ranked prospect in the 2024 Rivals 150, behind fellow Bama recruits Derrion Reid (No. 16) and Aiden Sherrell (No. 20). However, Philon is the Crimson Tide frosh who has carved out a starting role.
Advantage: Kentucky.
Point guard
▪ Kentucky super-senior Lamont Butler (13.4 ppg, 2.9 rpg, 71 assists vs. 28 turnovers, 28 steals) injured his left shoulder during the win over Texas A&M but returned to play. After having eight assists with no turnovers in UK’s win at Mississippi State, Butler had seven dimes but six miscues vs. Texas A&M. The point guard matchup between the 6-2, 208-pound Butler, a transfer from San Diego State, and Alabama star Mark Sears is a rematch. In the 2023 NCAA Tournament South Region round of 16, when the No. 5 seed Aztecs stunned overall No. 1 seed Alabama 71-64, Butler had four points, four rebounds, four assists and three steals. Sears had 16 points and 10 rebounds but missed all five of his 3-point shot attempts.
▪ This season, Alabama’s Mark Sears (18.6 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 77 assists vs. 42 turnovers, 20 steals) is not shooting as accurately as he did last year. In 2023-24, the 6-1, 190-pound guard made 50.8 percent of his shots overall and 43.6 percent of his 3-point tries. This season, Sears, a Muscle Shoals, Alabama, product, is making 40.8 percent overall and 35.3 percent on treys. Sears has played against Kentucky three previous times, once (2021-22) while playing for Ohio University and the past two seasons with Alabama. In those three games, Sears has averaged 15.3 points, 2.7 rebounds and 4.3 assists and his teams have gone 1-2 vs. the Wildcats.
Advantage: Alabama.
Bench
▪ Kentucky super-senior Koby Brea (11.3 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 46.7% treys) made 7 of 9 3-point shots in UK’s 106-100 win over Florida in the SEC opener. In the Wildcats’ three contests since, the 6-7, 215-pound transfer from Dayton has made only 4 of 19 treys. ... Senior forward Ansley Almonor (5.1 ppg, 1.7 rpg, 36.4% treys) scored only 10 combined points in UK’s first two SEC games. In the wins at Mississippi State and vs. Texas A&M, the 6-7, 244-pound transfer from Fairleigh Dickinson has scored 17 total points and made 4 of 6 3-pointers. ... Sophomore center Brandon Garrison (5.5 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 37 assists vs. 20 turnovers) has made 50 percent or better of his field goal tries in each of the past seven games. ... Freshman guard Travis Perry (1.8 ppg) had six points in the win over Texas A&M and has made five of his last eight 3-point attempts.
▪ A transfer from Alabama’s archrival, Auburn, Aden Holloway (11.1 ppg, 1.8 rpg, 32 assists vs. 19 turnovers) has scored in double figures in six consecutive contests. A 6-1, 180-pound sophomore, Holloway had four points on 1-of-5 shooting for Auburn last season in the Tigers’ 70-59 loss to visiting Kentucky. ... Touted true freshman Derrion Reid (see above) had 11 points in Alabama’s 94-88 win at Texas A&M last Saturday. However, the 6-8, 220-pound product of Grovetown, Georgia, did not play in the loss to Ole Miss on Tuesday night due to an undisclosed injury. The status of Reid (8.1 ppg, 3.4 rpg, 45.7% FGs) for Saturday’s game is unclear. ... A 6-7, 215-pound sophomore, Mouhamed Dioubate (4.5 ppg, 5 rpg, 51% FGs) had 12 points and made 5 of 6 shots vs. Kentucky last season. ... This season, Dioubate has gone the past 10 games without scoring in double figures. ... A 6-10, 240-pound freshman from Detroit, Aiden Sherrell is averaging 2.5 points and 2.7 rebounds.
Advantage: Even.
Trends and history
▪ Kentucky leads the all-time series with Alabama 117-41.
▪ Alabama coach Nate Oats is 3-5 vs. UK, 3-4 as Crimson Tide head man and 0-1 at Buffalo.
▪ Kentucky coach Mark Pope has yet to coach against Alabama.
▪ Alabama is 4-1 this season in true road games. Kentucky is 11-0 at home.
▪ Kentucky is 5-0 in games vs. teams ranked in the top 20 of the NET Rankings (through games of Wednesday night). Alabama is 3-2 in such games.
Advantage: Kentucky.
Prediction
Kentucky 109, Alabama 105.
This story was originally published January 16, 2025 at 11:05 AM.
