How Kentucky men’s basketball matches up against Tennessee — with a game prediction

How the No. 15 Kentucky Wildcats (16-7, 5-5 SEC) and the No. 5 Tennessee Volunteers (20-4, 7-4 SEC) match up at each position for Tuesday’s men’s college basketball game at Rupp Arena — with a game prediction:

Small forward

▪ According to Kentucky’s Monday night injury report, the injured right wrist Jaxson Robinson (13.3 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 40 assists vs. 22 turnovers) suffered in UK’s Friday practice will keep him out of Tuesday’s game. In Kentucky’s 78-73 upset of Tennessee in Knoxville on Jan. 28, Robinson played a huge role. Forced to play point guard in place of an injured Lamont Butler. Robinson responded with 17 points and only two turnovers in 35 minutes. In Robinson’s absence, super-senior Koby Brea (10.8 ppg, 3.2rpg, 45.1% treys) figures to start vs. UT. The transfer from Dayton played his best all-around game as a Wildcat in Saturday’s 80-57 win over South Carolina. The 6-7, 215-pound wing from Washington Heights, New York, had 10 points, six rebounds, five assists and a steal. In UK’s earlier victory at Tennessee, Brea also started and had 18 points on 5-of-5 shooting, 3-of-3 on treys.

▪ Tennessee’s Jahmai Mashack (5.8 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 44 steals, 46.7% FGs, 33.3% treys) had two points, two rebounds and two assists in UT’s 70-52 win at Oklahoma on Saturday. Over the past four games, Mashack, a 6-4, 202-pound senior from Fontana, California, has made only 9 of 23 field goal attempts. In the Vols’ loss to the Cats in Knoxville, Mashack had six points, three rebounds and two steals. In seven career games vs. UK, Mashack has scored more than six points only once — a 16-point showing in UT’s 66-54 loss to Kentucky at Rupp Arena in 2022-23.

Advantage: Kentucky.

Power forward

▪ Kentucky senior Ansley Almonor (5.8 ppg, 1.8 rpg, 50% FGs, 43.3% treys) has started the past five games for UK as Andrew Carr has dealt with a back injury. The 6-7, 244-pound product of Spring Valley, New York, has gone scoreless in the past two games, ending a streak of four straight contests in which he had scored in double figures and seven straight games in which he had scored six points or more. In UK’s win at UT last month, Almonor, a transfer from Fairleigh Dickinson, had 12 points, two rebounds and three assists in a season-high 30 minutes.

▪ Since last month’s game with UK, Tennessee’s Igor Milicic Jr. (10.7 ppg, 8 rpg, 48.4% FGs, 30.4% treys) has been on an offensive tear. The 6-10, 225-pound senior, a transfer from Charlotte, has made 17 of 25 shots in his prior three games and has averaged 16 points and 7.7 rebounds in that span. A native of Pula, Croatia, Milicic had 19 points, nine rebounds and four assists vs. UK in the prior meeting.

Advantage: Tennessee.

Center

▪ Kentucky’s Amari Williams (10.4 ppg, 9 rpg, 69 assists vs. 53 turnovers, team-high 30 blocked shots) has been the Wildcats’ best player over the past four games. The 7-foot, 262-pound super-senior from Nottingham, England, has averaged 13.5 points, 10.8 rebounds and 4.9 assists in that run. Included in Williams’ big stretch was only the fourth triple-double — 12 points, 11 rebounds, 10 assists in UK’s 98-84 loss at Mississippi — in Kentucky men’s hoops history. A transfer from Drexel, Williams had 10 points, 15 rebounds and four assists in UK’s win at UT.

▪ Tennessee’s Felix Okpara (7.6 ppg, 6.4 rpg, 60% FGs, team-high 45 blocked shots) had eight points, three rebounds and four blocked shots in the win at Oklahoma. One of the SEC’s best rim protectors, the 6-11, 235-pound junior has blocked multiple shots in nine of the past 10 games and has had at least three blocks in six of those contests. In the loss to Kentucky, Okpara, a transfer from Ohio State, had four points, seven rebounds and two blocks.

Advantage: Kentucky.

Shooting guard

▪ Kentucky’s Otega Oweh (team-high 16 ppg, 4.5 rpg, team-high 35 steals, 49.6% FGs, 33.3% treys) has scored 21 points or more in three of UK’s past six games. The 6-4, 215-pound junior from Newark, New Jersey, has been Kentucky’s most reliable offensive option, having scored in double figures in all 23 Wildcats games to date. In the Cats’ win at Tennessee last month, Oweh had 14 points and six rebounds and sank four cold-blooded free throws in the last 25 seconds to seal the UK victory.

▪ Tennessee leading scorer Chaz Lanier (17.7 ppg, 3.4 rpg, 41.8% FGs, 41.3% treys) went for 21 points, five rebounds and two assists in the win at Oklahoma on Saturday. The performance in Norman was an exception to the pattern of performance that Lanier, a 6-5, 207-pound super-senior from Nashville, had demonstrated in previous SEC road games. In UT’s four Southeastern Conference away contests prior to OU, Lanier, a transfer from North Florida, had made only 15 of 49 field goal tries, seven of 27 3-pointers. In Tennessee’s loss to Kentucky last month, Lanier had 15 points on 5-of-14 shooting, 3-of-10 treys.

Advantage: Kentucky.

Point guard

▪ After missing three games due to a left shoulder injury, Kentucky super-senior Lamont Butler (12.9 ppg, 2.8 rpg, 84 assists vs. 38 turnovers, 31 steals) returned to start in the win over South Carolina on Saturday. In 23 minutes, the 6-2, 208-pound product of Moreno Valley, California, had eight points, a rebound, three assists, three turnovers and a steal. A transfer from San Diego State, Butler did not play in the previous game vs. Tennessee.

▪ Tennessee’s Zakai Zeigler (12.9 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 173 assists vs. 69 turnovers; team-high 48 steals) had 13 points in UT’s loss to UK in Knoxville but struggled mightily with his jump shot. The 5-9, 172-pound senior from Long Island, New York, made only 5 of 18 shots, 1 of 11 treys vs. UK. The last time Zeigler played in Rupp Arena, however, he very much had his shot going. In the Vols’ 103-92 win over John Calipari’s Wildcats in Lexington last season, Zeigler hit 8 of 11 shots, 3 of 6 3-pointers and 7 of 10 foul shots en route to 26 points and 13 assists. Overall, in eight previous meetings with Kentucky, Zeigler has scored in double figures five times.

Advantage: Tennessee.

Bench

▪ Kentucky super-senior power forward Andrew Carr (10 ppg, 5 rpg, 54.3% FGs) played only one minute in the win in Knoxville due to back issues. Since then, Kentucky has eased the 6-11, 235-pound product of West Chester, Pennsylvania, back into action, as Carr has logged 15, 23 and 14 minutes, respectively, in UK’s past three games. ... Sophomore center Brandon Garrison (6 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 49 assists vs. 25 turnovers) had a season-high 15 points in Saturday’s win over South Carolina. ... Freshman forward Trent Noah (2.2 ppg, 1.2 rpg, 46.2% treys) had five crucial points in the second half of UK’s win at UT last month.

▪ Tennessee sixth man Jordan Gainey (10.8 ppg, 3.4 rpg, 27 steals, 33% treys) has been struggling with his shot. Over UT”s past seven games, the 6-4, 190-pound senior has made only 18 of 57 shot attempts, 8 of 29 on 3-point tries. Gainey had six points and four rebounds in the first UK-UT matchup. ... Sophomore forward Cade Phillips (5.3 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 67.5% FGs) has made 8 of 12 shots over Tennessee’s past four games. Limited to eight minutes of action by foul trouble in the first game with Kentucky, the 6-9, 216-pound sophomore had three points and a blocked shot vs. the Cats. ... Darlinstone Dubar (3.8 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 37.8% FGs, 25.6% treys) played well against UK last month. The 6-6, 220-pound super-senior had seven points, four rebounds, an assist, two steals and a blocked shot in 17 minutes.

Advantage: Even.

Trends and history

▪ Kentucky leads the all-time series with Tennessee 162-78. In games played in Lexington, UK leads UT 94-20.

▪ Tennessee coach Rick Barnes is 12-13 all-time vs. Kentucky and is 11-11 vs. the Wildcats since becoming the Volunteers head man in 2015-16.

▪ Kentucky coach Mark Pope is 1-0 vs. UT.

▪ UK is 12-2 in home games, but is only 3-2 in SEC contests played at Rupp Arena. Tennessee is 4-3 in true road games but is only 2-3 in SEC contests played on opponents’ home courts.

▪ Tennessee presumably has the motivational advantage as it seeks to avenge its upset loss to Kentucky in Knoxville last month. Under Rick Barnes, the Vols have won over the Cats at Rupp Arena four times, including three of the past five meetings.

Advantage: Tennessee.

Prediction

Tennessee 77, Kentucky 75.

This story was originally published February 10, 2025 at 8:04 AM.

Mark Story

Lexington Herald-Leader

859-444-4731

Mark Story has worked in the Lexington Herald-Leader sports department since Aug. 27, 1990, and has been a Herald-Leader sports columnist since 2001. I have covered every Kentucky-Louisville football game since 1994, every UK-U of L basketball game but three since 1996-97 and every Kentucky Derby since 1994. Support my work with a digital subscription