NCAA Tournament picks: An SEC team will win the title. Will UK or Louisville go farther?
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NCAA Selection Sunday 2025: Brackets, analysis, predictions and more
Click below for more of the Herald-Leader’s and Kentucky.com’s coverage of Selection Sunday 2025 as brackets are revealed for the men’s and women’s NCAA basketball tournaments.
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Predicting the 2025 NCAA men’s basketball tournament:
Final Four
▪ Auburn. Bruce Pearl’s Tigers appeared to be the best team in the country for 75% of the season. Entering the NCAA Tournament off of three losses in four games should get Auburn its edge back.
▪ Duke. The East Regional could come down to which player injured in their conference tournaments — Duke’s Cooper Flagg or Alabama’s Grant Nelson — gets healthy quicker.
▪ Houston. The Cougars’ journey to last season’s Final Four was derailed when star guard Jamal Shead suffered a right ankle injury in what became a Sweet 16 loss to Duke. Kelvin Sampson’s crew will use that disappointment as fuel in 2025.
▪ Florida. Coming out of an SEC whose perceived strength earned the league 14 bids, Todd Golden’s Gators appear to be the most well-rounded of all the Southeastern Conference teams.
(Yes, I picked all the No. 1 seeds. Sue me.)
National champion
▪ Florida defeats Houston. In a season that has been all about the strength of the SEC, the Gators will ensure the league brings home the ultimate prize.
Kentucky teams
▪ Kentucky. The No. 3 seed in the Midwest Regional, Kentucky will defeat No. 14 seed Troy in the round of 64, beat No. 11 seed Texas in the round of 32 but fall to No. 2 seed Tennessee in the Sweet 16.
▪ Louisville. The No. 8 seed in the South Regional, Louisville will get a boost from a “home” crowd that travels east down I-64 to support the Cardinals at Rupp Arena and outlast No. 9 seed Creighton. U of L will then fall to No. 1 overall seed Auburn in the round of 32.
Upset specials
▪ No. 12 seed UC San Diego will oust No. 5 Michigan in the South Regional.
▪ No. 10 seed New Mexico will bounce No. 7 Marquette in the South.
▪ No. 13 seed Akron will eliminate No. 4 Arizona in the East.
▪ No. 13 seed Grand Canyon will beat No. 4 Maryland in the West.
▪ No. 13 seed High Point will defeat No. 4 Purdue in the Midwest.
Bracket breakdown
1. If you average the NET rankings for the top four seeds in each regional, the East ranks as the toughest, followed by the West, South and Midwest.
2. It has become accepted wisdom that the teams most likely to win the national championship can be found from among those ranked in the top 20 in both adjusted offensive efficiency and adjusted defensive efficiency in the Pomeroy Ratings.
This season, there are six such teams — Duke (No. 3 adjusted offensive efficiency, No. 4 adjusted defensive efficiency), Florida (No. 1, No. 10), Houston (No. 10, No. 2), Auburn (No. 2, No. 12), Tennessee (No. 18, No. 3) and Iowa State (No. 20, No. 9).
(The Cyclones, however, are a team of which to be wary. Iowa State coach T.J. Otzelberger announced Sunday that standout guard Keshon Gilbert will be out for the NCAA Tourney. Gilbert is averaging 13.4 points and 4.1 assists.)
3. The SEC set a men’s NCAA Tournament record by having 14 teams selected. That broke the old mark of 11 set by the Big East in 2011.
As recently as 2016, the SEC put only three teams in the NCAA Tournament.
In 2011, a Big East team, Connecticut, went on to win the NCAA title — but the league got only two of its 11 entrants through to the Sweet 16.
4. This year is the first since 2015 in which Kentucky and Louisville are the only two instate teams in the men’s NCAA Tournament. That year, UK went to the Final Four and U of L the Elite Eight.
The last time there was not at least one team from the commonwealth of Kentucky in a men’s NCAA Tournament was 1963.
5. A No. 1 seed has won six of the past seven NCAA tournaments.
This story was originally published March 16, 2025 at 8:03 PM.
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