How UK basketball matches up against Illinois in NCAA Tournament — with a game prediction
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Preview: Kentucky vs. Illinois in NCAA Tournament
Click below to read more coverage from the Lexington Herald-Leader and Kentucky.com ahead of Kentucky’s men’s NCAA Tournament game against Illinois in Milwaukee on Sunday.
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How the men’s NCAA Tournament Midwest Regional No. 3 seed Kentucky Wildcats (23-11) and the No. 6 seed Illinois Fighting Illini (22-12) match up at each position for Sunday’s game — with a prediction:
Small forward
▪ Kentucky super-senior Koby Brea (11.5 points, 3.1 rebounds, 46.9% FGs, 44.1% treys) has played in three career NCAA Tournament games — two for Dayton and one for UK — and has shot 5-for-9 from the field in all three. A 6-foot-7, 215-pound product of Washington Heights, New York, Brea had 13 points, two rebounds and four assists in the Wildcats’ 76-57 win against Troy in Friday’s round of 64. Brea has scored in double figures in nine of Kentucky’s past 13 games.
▪ Illinois junior Tre White (10.5 points, 5.4 rebounds, 50.9% FGs, 34.3% treys) began his college career at Southern Cal and played last season at Louisville for Kenny Payne. A 6-7, 215-pound junior from Dallas, White had 11 points, two rebounds and two assists last season in the Cardinals’ 95-76 loss to the Wildcats. In the Fighting Illini’s 86-73 win against Xavier in Friday’s round of 64, White had seven points and seven rebounds. White played big for Illinois in the Big Ten Tournament, scoring 20 points in a win against Purdue and 22 in a loss to Maryland.
Advantage: Even.
Power forward
▪ The NCAA Tournament seems to agree with Kentucky super-senior Andrew Carr (10.5 points, 4.7 rebounds, 55.9% FGs, 34.3% treys). In two career games in the tournament, one for Delaware in 2021-22 and Friday night for UK, Carr has made a combined 10 of 12 field-goal attempts. A 6-11, 235-pound super-senior from West Chester, Pennsylvania, Carr finished the Troy game with 13 points, two rebounds, three assists and three blocked shots. Carr enters the Illinois contest having scored in double figures in five of Kentucky’s past six games — and had eight points in the sixth contest.
▪ Illinois freshman Will Riley (12.8 points, 4.1 rebounds, 43.8% FGs, 37.3% treys) had a banner NCAA Tournament debut against Xavier. The 6-8, 195-pound product of Kitchener, Ontario, Canada, had a team-high 22 points against the Musketeers and hit eight of 12 shots, three of four 3-pointers and both of his free throws. Down the stretch of the season, Riley’s play has been on an upward arc — he is averaging 18.0 points over the previous six games.
Advantage: Illinois.
Center
▪ In the win against Troy, Kentucky’s Amari Williams (10.9 points, 8.6 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 56.6% FGs) had a spectacular, coast-to-coast dunk — and three missed layups and four missed free throws. The 7-foot, 262-pound super-senior finished the game with five points, 13 rebounds, four assists and a blocked shot. Against an Illinois roster stacked with length and athleticism, Williams is an important player to UK’s chances of victory.
▪ Illinois sophomore Tomislav Ivisic (12.8 ppg, 7.7 rpg, 1.1 blocks, 49.7% FGs, 35.2% treys) is the brother of former Kentucky and current Arkansas big man Zvonimir Ivisic. In the win against Xavier, the 7-1, 255-pound Tomislav Ivisic had a double-double — 20 points and 10 rebounds. In four games against SEC teams this season — wins over Arkansas and Missouri, losses to Alabama and Tennessee — Ivisic averaged 12.5 points and 10.5 rebounds and had three double-doubles. Ivisic has not been shooting well from behind the 3-point arc down the stretch. He has made only 10 of 43 treys over the past eight games.
Advantage: Illinois.
Shooting guard
▪ Kentucky leading scorer Otega Oweh (16.4 points, 4.7 rebounds, team-high 1.6 steals, 49.4% FGs, 36.5% treys) made a smashing NCAA Tournament debut in the win against Troy. The 6-4, 215-pound junior had 20 points on 8-for-13 shooting versus the Trojans and also had eight rebounds, six assists and two steals. That performance was a continuation of Oweh’s strong late-season play — he has scored 20 points or more in seven of UK’s last 10 games.
▪ A Champaign, Illinois, product, Illinois junior Kylan Boswell (12.0 points, 4.9 rebounds, 41.8% FGs, 23.9% treys) transferred home prior to this season from Arizona. The 6-2, 205-pound guard shot well against Xavier, making five of eight shots and three of four treys. He finished with 15 points, five rebounds and two assists against the Musketeers. Boswell has now scored in double figures in seven straight games.
Advantage: Kentucky.
Point guard
▪ The value of Kentucky’s Lamont Butler (11.0 points, 2.8 rebounds, 4.3 assists, 1.4 steals, 47.9% FGs, 34.4% treys) was on stark display in the win against Troy even as the super-senior missed all five of his shot attempts and went scoreless while continuing to play with his injured left shoulder in a brace. In spite of that, Butler was Kentucky’s plus/minus leader against the Trojans, with the Wildcats at plus-22 when he was on the court. A former San Diego State standout, Butler will be remembered as one of this era of men’s college basketball’s ultimate winners — his teams are 8-4 in NCAA Tournament games over his career and have won eight of the past 10.
▪ Illinois leading scorer Kasparas Jakucionis (15.0 points, 5.7 rebounds, 4.8 assists, 44.2% FGs, 32.3% treys, 84.9% FTs) did not shoot well, 3-for-11 overall and 1-for-6 on treys, against Xavier but nevertheless just missed logging a triple-double. The 6-6, 205-pound freshman from Vodice, Croatia, finished with 16 points, nine rebounds and 10 assists versus the Musketeers. In the Fighting Illini’s four prior contests against SEC teams, Jakucionis averaged 20.3 points. For Kentucky, a big key will be keeping Jakucionis off the foul line — he is averaging 5.2 free throw attempts a game.
Advantage: Illinois.
Bench
▪ Kentucky sophomore center Brandon Garrison (5.8 points, 3.9 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 51.3% FGs, 31.4% treys) gave the Wildcats a huge lift against Troy. The 6-10, 250-pound sophomore had 13 points, six rebounds, two assists and two steals in 16 minutes. … Freshman guard Collin Chandler (2.4 points, 33.3% FGs, 29.3% treys) also came up big for UK in the round of 64, scoring nine second half points vs. Troy. … Frosh forward Trent Noah (2.7 points, 2.1 rebounds, 43.8% FGs, 32.4% treys) hit a significant 3-pointer in the first half vs. Troy. … Senior forward Ansley Almonor (5.6 points, 1.7 rebounds, 52.2% FGs, 43.7% treys) missed his only two shots vs. Troy, but his 3-point shooting acumen could be important vs. Illinois.
▪ Illinois forward Ben Humrichous (7.8 points, 3.7 rebounds, 37.5% FGs, 34.3% treys) began his career playing at NAIA school Huntington University. He transferred from there to Evansville and is using his super-senior season at Illinois. A 6-9, 225-pound product of Tipton, Indiana, Humrichous has started 26 games this season. He did not shoot well vs. Xavier, going 0-for-5 overall and 0-for-4 on 3-pointers. … A 6-9, 225-pound freshman, Morez Johnson Jr. (7.0 points, 6.7 rebounds, 64.7% FGs, 62.8% FTs) had six points and five rebounds in 12 minutes vs. Xavier. … Sophomore guard Dra Gibbs-Lawhorn (6.1 points, 1.6 rebounds, 44.3% FGs, 25.5% treys) logged only one minute of playing time vs. Xavier and did not score.
Advantage: Even.
Intangibles and history
▪ Kentucky leads the all-time series with Illinois 11-4 and is 4-0 against the Fighting Illini in NCAA Tournament contests. However, the teams have not played since UK’s 54-51 win over Illinois in the 1984 NCAA Tournaments’ Elite Eight at Rupp Arena.
▪ In 62 all-time NCAA Tournament trips, Kentucky is 131-55. A UK victory Sunday would move the Cats into a tie with North Carolina (132) for the most all-time NCAA Tournament wins.
▪ Illinois is making its 35th NCAA appearance and is 46-35 in the tournament.
▪ Kentucky coach Mark Pope is 1-2 in his career in the NCAA Tournament and is 1-0 as UK head man.
▪ Illinois coach Brad Underwood is 8-8 all-time in the NCAA Tournament, and is 6-4 at Illinois.
▪ Fighting Illini fans dominated the stands for Friday night’s NCAA Tournament session at the Fiserv Forum and are expected to give Illinois a home-court feel for Sunday’s meeting with Kentucky.
Advantage: Illinois.
Prediction
Illinois 84, Kentucky 81.
This story was originally published March 22, 2025 at 4:11 PM.
