How UK basketball matches up vs. Tennessee in NCAA tourney — with a game prediction
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Preview: Kentucky vs. Tennessee in NCAA Tournament
Click below to read more coverage from the Lexington Herald-Leader and Kentucky.com ahead of Kentucky’s men’s NCAA Tournament game against Tennessee in Indianapolis on Friday.
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How the men’s NCAA Tournament Midwest Regional No. 3 seed Kentucky Wildcats (24-11) and the No. 2 seed Tennessee Volunteers (29-7) match up at each position for Friday’s round-of-16 game at Lucas Oil Stadium — with a game prediction:
Small forward
▪ Kentucky super-senior Koby Brea (11.8 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 47.7% FGs, 43.2% treys) has been terrific in the NCAA Tournament. The 6-foot-7, 215-pound Brea made a combined 15 of 25 shots and averaged 18 points, four rebounds and 2.5 assists in UK’s Big Dance victories over Troy (76-57) and Illinois (84-75). A product of Washington Heights, New York, Brea has played well against Tennessee. In UK’s two regular season victories over the Volunteers — 78-73 in Knoxville on Jan. 28 and 75-64 in Lexington on Feb. 11 — Brea made a combined 9 of 14 field goals, 6 of 9 3-pointers, and averaged 14.5 ppg.
▪ Tennessee’s Jahmai Mashack (6.1 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 57 steals, 45.8% FGs, 36.4% treys) is averaging 7.5 points and four rebounds in the NCAA Tournament. A 6-4, 202-pound senior from Fontana, California, Mashack has struggled to make shots this season against Kentucky. In the Volunteers’ two losses to the Wildcats, Mashack has made only 1 of 6 shots and has averaged three points and three rebounds a game vs. the Cats.
Advantage: Kentucky.
Power forward
▪ Because of a back injury, Kentucky super-senior Andrew Carr ( 10.4 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 54.8% FGs, 33.8% treys) played only one minute in UK’s win at UT and played only 19 minutes in the Cats’ victory over the Vols in Lexington. As a result, Carr averaged only 1.5 points and 1 rebound vs. the Volunteers. In the NCAA Tournament, Carr, a 6-11, 235-pound product of West Chester, Pennsylvania, is averaging 8.5 points and 4 rebounds.
▪ In the two previous games vs. Kentucky, Tennessee’s Igor Milicic Jr. (9.7 ppg, 6.8 rpg, 46.9% FGs, 32.2% treys) has been UT’s best player. A 6-10, 225-pound senior from Rovinj, Croatia, Milicic has made 12 of 21 field goal tries, 7 of 12 3-pointers, and averaged 17.5 ppg against the Cats. A transfer from Charlotte, Milicic has not played well in the NCAA tourney. In UT’s wins over Wofford (77-62) and UCLA (67-58), Milicic averaged 4.5 ppg and 5 rpg.
Advantage: Even.
Center
▪ Kentucky’s Amari Williams (10.8 ppg, 8.6 rpg, 55.7% FGs, 62.6% free throws) has one of the most unique stat lines in college hoops. The 7-foot, 262-pound super-senior leads Kentucky in both assists (112, tied with Lamont Butler) and blocked shots (44). In Milwaukee for the NCAA tourney opening rounds, the Nottingham, England, product struggled to finish at the rim and made only 6 of 19 shots. Against Tennessee this season, Williams has averaged eight points, nine rebounds and three assists a game.
▪ Tennessee’s Felix Okpara (7.2 ppg, 6.2 rpg, team-high 61 blocked shots, 58.2% FGs) has gone six straight games without scoring in double figures. The 6-11, 235-pound junior is averaging 5.5 points and six rebounds in the NCAA tourney. Against Kentucky, Okpara, a native of Lagos, Nigeria, has averaged six points and 5.5 rebounds a game.
Advantage: Kentucky.
Shooting guard
▪ Kentucky’s Otega Oweh (16.3 ppg, 4.7 rpg, team-high 55 steals, 49.4% FGs, 36% treys) has scored 20 points or more in 10 of UK’s past 18 games. The 6-4, 215-pound product of Newark, New Jersey, averaged 17.5 points, six rebounds and 3.5 assists in the Wildcats’ two NCAA tourney wins. In the two prior wins over Tennessee, Oweh averaged 13.5 ppg and made 8 of 22 shots.
▪ Tennessee leading scorer Chaz Lanier (18.1 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 43.8% FGs, 41% treys, 74.2% FTs) has been on fire in the NCAA tourney. The 6-5, 207-pound super-senior had 29 points in the win over Wofford and came back with 20 vs. UCLA. In the NCAAs, Lanier, a Nashville product, has made 17 of 36 shots and 10 of 18 3-pointers. A transfer from North Florida, Lanier has not fared well to date against UK. In the Volunteers’ two losses to the Wildcats, Lanier has made only 8 of 27 shots, 3 of 17 treys. He is averaging 12.5 points a contest vs. the Cats.
Advantage: Kentucky.
Point guard
▪ Kentucky super-senior Lamont Butler (11.1 ppg, 2.7 rpg, 4.3 apg, 1.6 steals, 48.7% FGs, 35.9% treys) was stellar in UK’s round-of-32 victory over Illinois. The 6-2, 208-pound product of Moreno Valley, California, hit 4 of 5 shots, 2 of 3 treys and finished with 14 points, five assists and three steals. A transfer from San Diego State, Butler has now played in 13 NCAA Tournament games, and has been on the winning side in nine of them. Butler missed the first UK win over UT due to a shoulder injury. He played in the second Kentucky-Tennessee meeting and had six points, three rebounds, four assists and three steals before re-aggravating his shoulder injury and exiting after 22 minutes of game time.
▪ Tennessee senior Zakai Zeigler (13.7 ppg, 3 rpg, 7.4 apg, 2.0 steals, 41.3% FGs, 32.6% treys) has scored in double figures in all five of UT’s postseason tourney games — three in the SEC Tournament, two in the NCAA tourney. In a close game, Zeigler, a 5-9, 172-pound product of Long Island, New York, is not the person you want to send to the foul line. He has made 25 of his last 26 free throw attempts. Zeigler did not shoot well, 5-of-18 overall, 1-of-11 on 3-point tries, in UT’s loss to UK in Knoxville. He was far more accurate, making 7 of 11 shots and scoring 17 points, in the Vols’ loss to the Cats in Lexington.
Advantage: Tennessee.
Bench
▪ A transfer from Fairleigh Dickinson, Kentucky senior forward Ansley Almonor (5.4 ppg, 50.8% FGs, 42.9% treys) has crushed the Orange this season. In the two UK wins over UT, Almonor has hit 8 of 12 shots, 6 of 10 3-pointers, and averaged 12.5 points a game. ... Sophomore center Brandon Garrison (5.9 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 50.9% FGs) came up big in the NCAA tourney win over Troy, going for 13 points, six rebounds, two assists and two steals. Against Tennessee, Garrison has averaged 3.5 points and 3.5 rebounds. ... Freshman guard Collin Chandler (2.7 ppg, 35.2% FGs, 33.3% treys) has made 4 of 8 shots in the NCAA tourney and is averaging 7.5 ppg. ... Harlan County product Trent Noah (2.8 ppg, 2 rpg, 45.1% FGs) has tormented UT — he has made a combined 5 of 6 shots, 4 of 5 3-pointers, and averaged 8 ppg vs. the Rocky Toppers. ... Lyon County product Travis Perry (2.7 ppg, 31.3% Fgs, 32.1% treys) had eight points in the win over Tennessee at Rupp Arena.
▪ Tennessee sixth man Jordan Gainey (11.3 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 39.8% FGs, 30.3% treys) is averaging 13.6 points in UT’s five postseason tourney games. A 6-4, 190-pound senior, Gainey has not shot well this season against Kentucky. In the two UT losses to UK, Gainey went 6-of-21 overall, 2-of-12 on 3-point shots. ... Sophomore forward Cade Phillips (4.8 ppg, 3.6 rpg, 63.2% FGs) played well in the round-of-32 win over UCLA. The 6-9, 210-pound sophomore had five points, six rebounds, two assists and a blocked shot vs. the Bruins. ... Darlinstone Dubar (3.4 ppg, 1.8 rpg, 39.4% FGs) had seven points and four rebounds vs. UK in Knoxville.
Advantage: Kentucky.
Trends and history
▪ Kentucky leads the all-time series with Tennessee 163-78. This will be the first meeting between the ancient border rivals in the NCAA Tournament.
▪ As UK head man, Mark Pope is 2-0 vs. Tennessee.
▪ Volunteers coach Rick Barnes is 12-14 overall against Kentucky, 11-12 as Tennessee coach.
▪ In 62 all-time NCAA Tournament trips, Kentucky is 132-55. A UK victory Friday would move the Cats past North Carolina (132) for the most all-time NCAA Tournament wins.
▪ Tennessee is making its 27th men’s NCAA tourney appearance. The Volunteers are 30-27 all-time in the NCAA Tournament and are 11-6 under Rick Barnes.
▪ For the third meeting of the season between the Wildcats and Volunteers, is it advantageous to have the confidence of having won the previous two meetings? Or is it better to have the motivational edge that comes from seeking revenge for the two earlier losses?
Advantage: Even.
Prediction
Kentucky 74, Tennessee 72.
This story was originally published March 27, 2025 at 6:45 AM.
