How Kentucky football and No. 20 Mississippi match up — with a game prediction

How the Kentucky Wildcats (1-0, 0-0 SEC) and the No. 20 Mississippi Rebels (1-0, 0-0 SEC) match up at each position for Saturday’s college football SEC opener — with a game prediction:

Quarterbacks

• New Kentucky starter Zach Calzada had a rough go in his UK debut. The 6-foot-4, 230-pound super-senior completed only 10 of 23 passes for 85 yards with one interception. A transfer from Incarnate Word who began his college career at Texas A&M, Calzada did run for a touchdown on a QB sneak. “I think Zach was really pressing,” UK coach Mark Stoops said. For Kentucky to upset a ranked Ole Miss team for a second consecutive season, Calzada will need to play far better in week two.

•Mississippi’s Austin Simmons had a smashing debut in his first career college start last week. The 6-4, 215-pound redshirt sophomore, a left-hander, completed 20 of 31 passes for 341 yards with three touchdown passes vs. two interceptions in a 63-7 rout of Georgia State. Kentucky will hope to exploit the fact that Simmons will be making his first college road start at Kroger Field.

Advantage: Ole Miss

Running backs

• Kentucky transfers Dante Dowdell and Seth McGowan had productive UK debuts vs. Toledo. Dowdell, a 6-2, 227-pound junior who transferred to Kentucky from Nebraska, ran for a team-high 129 yards on 14 carries and ripped off a 79-yard touchdown run. McGowan, a 6-1, 215-pound senior who transferred to UK from New Mexico State after beginning his career at Oklahoma, ran 18 times for 78 yards and had a 6-yard TD run.

• A transfer from Missouri, Mississippi’s Kewan Lacy ran for 108 yards and three touchdowns against Georgia State. A 5-9, 195-pound sophomore, Lacy never gained more than 42 yards in a game last season at Mizzou. A transfer from Notre Dame, Logan Diggs also gashed the Georgia State run defense. The 6-1, 215-pound senior ran for 91 yards on seven carries with a touchdown.

Advantage: Even

Wide receivers

• Only three Kentucky wide receivers caught passes in the win over Toledo. Sophomore Hardley Gilmore IV led the wideouts in receptions with two, but those plays produced a combined minus-5 yards. Ja’Mori Maclin led the wide receivers in receiving yardage, catching one pass for 11 yards. Former Franklin County star Fred Farrier II was the only other Kentucky wideout to catch a pass vs. the Rockets, hauling in one catch for six yards.

• Mississippi’s Harrison Wallace III had five catches for a career-high 130 yards and a touchdown vs. Georgia State. A 6-1, 190-pound redshirt senior, Wallace transferred to Ole Miss from Penn State, where he caught 46 passes for 720 yards and four TDs last season. A transfer from Oklahoma State, De’Zhaun Stribling made three catches for 55 yards vs. Georgia State. The 6-2, 210-pound redshirt senior caught 52 passes for 882 yards and six touchdowns last season for OSU. A 5-11, 180-pound junior, Cayden Lee had two catches for 13 yards vs. Georgia State. Last season, in UK’s 20-17 upset of No. 6 Ole Miss in Oxford, Lee caught two passes for 19 yards. Lee finished last year with 57 catches for 874 yards and two TDs.

Advantage: Ole Miss

Tight ends

• Kentucky senior Josh Kattus led the Wildcats in receiving vs. Toledo. The 6-4, 247-pound senior from Cincinnati caught three passes for 47 yards. In UK’s upset of Ole Miss last season, Kattus scored the game-winning touchdown by recovering a fumble and falling into the end zone with 2:25 left in the game. Sophomore Willie Rodriguez made two receptions for 31 yards vs. Toledo. The 6-4, 252-pound Covington Catholic product lost a fumble at the end of a 23-yard reception, however.

• Ole Miss senior tight end Dae’Quan Wright caught four passes for 78 yards and a touchdown vs. Georgia State. The 6-4, 255-pound senior, who began his college career at Virginia Tech, did not play against UK last season. Caleb Odom, a 6-5, 235-pound sophomore who played last season for Alabama, had four catches for 57 yards and a TD vs. Georgia State.

Advantage: Ole Miss

Offensive line

• Attempting to make the transition from guard to center for the second time in three seasons, Kentucky’s Jager Burton drew praise from Mark Stoops for his play against Toledo. “Jager, in general, played very good,” Stoops said. According to Stoops, UK’s new tackles, left tackle Shiyazh Pete (transfer from New Mexico State) and right tackle Alex Wollschlaeger (Bowling Green State) “didn’t give up a sack, probably gave up a few pressures, (and) can be stronger in the run game.”

• Mississippi right tackle Jayden Williams was the standout against Georgia State. The 6-4, 320-pound senior from Conway, Arkansas, had a team-high 83.1 pass block grade, according to Pro Football Focus. The interior of the Rebels’ offensive line — where the three starters have combined for only 18 career starts — is the Ole Miss question mark.

Advantage: Kentucky

Defensive line

• Kentucky nose guard David Gusta, a transfer from Washington State, was credited with one tackle for loss last week vs. Toledo. However, the 6-3, 317-pound senior anchored a UK interior defensive line that seemed to consistently penetrate the Rockets’ line. “I like the way he plays physical,” Mark Stoops said of Gusta. Starting end Mi-Quise Humphrey-Grace left the Toledo game with what the UK Sports Network said was a sprained right ankle.

• Mammoth tackle Zxavian Harris, a 6-8, 330-pound senior, had five tackles, two QB hurries, 1.5 tackles for loss and an interception against Georgia State. Harris made five tackles vs. UK last year. In his first college start, end Kam Franklin, a 6-5, 290-pound sophomore, made six tackles vs. Georgia State.

Advantage: Even

Linebackers

• Kentucky weakside linebacker Alex Afari, a 6-2, 227-pound senior from Cincinnati, finished with 13 tackles, nine of them solo, with a quarterback sack and two tackles for loss vs. Toledo. In only 19 snaps, sophomore pass rush specialist Steven “Sack’em” Soles had three tackles, two sacks and two forced fumbles. Kent State transfer Kam Olds also played well off the edge with three tackles.

• Mississippi linebacker TJ Dottery, who began his college career at Clemson, led the Rebels with nine tackles against Georgia State. The 6-2, 230-pound junior also led the Rebels in tackling in last season’s loss to Kentucky with 10. A transfer from Marshall, Jaden Yates made eight tackles vs. Georgia State.

Advantage: Kentucky

Defensive backs

• Kentucky boundary cornerback JQ Hardaway was stellar in the Wildcats’ upset of Ole Miss last season. The 6-3, 193-pound senior had a team-high 11 tackles, seven of them solo, in the victory. Last week vs. Toledo, Hardaway intercepted a pass that set up UK’s first touchdown.

• Mississippi cornerback Jaylon Braxton, a high-profile transfer from Arkansas, did not play vs. Georgia State due to injury. Lane Kiffin told reporters Monday he is “hopeful” Braxton will play vs. Kentucky. “I think he’s going to be a really good player here,” Kiffin said. A 6-foot, 190-pound sophomore, Braxton was a freshman standout at Arkansas in 2023, recording eight passes defended and picking off a pass.

Advantage: Kentucky

Special teams

• Kentucky senior punter Aidan Laros kicked five times against Toledo and averaged 43.8 yards a punt. Laros pinned the Rockets inside their 20-yard line four times. In his first game as UK place-kicker, redshirt freshman Jacob Kauwe hit a 45-yard field goal and made all three of his PAT attempts. Kendrick Law averaged 22 yards on two kickoff returns and Ty Bryant averaged minus-1.5 yards on two punt returns.

• Mississippi true freshman punter Oscar Bird, a 24-year-old former professional Australian Rules Football player, averaged 44.5 yards on two kicks in his college debut. Former Western Kentucky place-kicker Lucas Carneiro went 2 of 2 on field goals vs. Georgia State. Over his college career, Carneiro is 6 of 6 on field-goal attempts from outside 50 yards and is 14 of 15 on tries from 40-49 yards. Against Georgia State, Harrison Wallace III averaged 12.5 yards on four punt returns. Zxavian Harris blocked a Georgia State field goal try. For the 6-8, 330-pound Harris, it was the sixth blocked kick of his career, one shy of the all-time SEC record.

Advantage: Ole Miss

Prediction

Mississippi 28, Kentucky 19

This story was originally published September 3, 2025 at 6:43 AM.

Mark Story

Lexington Herald-Leader

859-444-4731

Mark Story has worked in the Lexington Herald-Leader sports department since Aug. 27, 1990, and has been a Herald-Leader sports columnist since 2001. I have covered every Kentucky-Louisville football game since 1994, every UK-U of L basketball game but three since 1996-97 and every Kentucky Derby since 1994. Support my work with a digital subscription