How UK matches up vs. Iowa State in the NCAA tourney — with a game prediction
AI-generated summary reviewed by our newsroom.
- Iowa State’s elite 3-point shooting and depth challenge Kentucky.
- Oweh and Kentucky's bench boost upset chances despite ISU favorite.
- Jefferson's ankle injury could matter; prediction still favors Iowa State.
How No. 7 seed Kentucky (22-13, 10-8 SEC) and No. 2 seed Iowa State (28-7, 12-6 Big 12) match up at each position for Sunday’s men’s NCAA Tournament Midwest Region round of 32 contest in St. Louis — with a game prediction:
Small forward
• Kentucky’s Collin Chandler (9.8 points, 2.8 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 41% 3-pointers) had a rough shooting day in UK’s 89-84 overtime win over Santa Clara in Friday’s round of 64, making only 1 of his 9 3-point tries en route to five points. Chandler did contribute five assists and two steals. The 6-foot-5, 205-pound sophomore from Farmington, Utah, is in a shooting slump. Over Kentucky’s past six games, Chandler has made only 6 of 28 3-point attempts. UK’s chances of upsetting the Cyclones would receive a substantial boost if Chandler could find his shot.
• Iowa State’s Milan Momcilovic (17.1 points, 3.1 rebounds, 88.3% free throws) had 17 points, four rebounds, two assists and two blocks in the Cyclones’ 108-74 bludgeoning of Tennessee State Friday in the round of 64. A 6-8, 225-pound junior from Pewaukee, Wisconsin, Momcilovic is shooting a torrid 49.4% (130 of 263) from behind the 3-point arc, the best figure among qualified players in NCAA Division I. He hit 8 of 14 treys and had 28 points in Iowa State’s 82-80 loss to Arizona in the Big 12 Tournament semifinals.
Advantage: Iowa State
Power forward
• Kentucky sophomore Andrija Jelavic (5.6 points, 4 rebounds, 47.7% FGs) took only one shot and did not score in the win over Santa Clara. However, the 6-11, 225-pound sophomore from Zagreb, Croatia, pulled down seven rebounds and doled out three assists in 13 minutes of playing time. After hitting 6 of 10 shots in UK’s first two games of the SEC Tournament, Jelavic has shot a combined 1 of 7 in the Cats’ past two games.
• Iowa State’s Joshua Jefferson (16.4 points, 7.4 rebounds, 4.8 assists, 1.6 steals) is one of the most versatile frontcourt players in men’s college basketball. However, the 6-9, 240-pound senior, who began his college career at St. Mary’s, suffered a sprained left ankle only minutes into the Cyclones’ Friday victory over Tennessee State. He left the game and did not return. Iowa State coach T.J. Otzelberger said after the TSU contest that X-rays of Jefferson’s ankle had come back negative. “We’ll continue to reevaluate over the next day or two and just see where things are on Sunday,” Otzelberger said.
Advantage: Iowa State
Center
• Kentucky freshman Malachi Moreno (7.9 points, 6.3 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 1.5 blocks, 58.2% FGs) had three points, six rebounds, an assist and three turnovers in the win over Santa Clara. The 7-foot, 250-pound product of Great Crossing High School in Georgetown has hit a late-season lull, having gone six straight games without scoring in double figures.
• Iowa State junior Blake Buchanan (8.5 points, 5.7 rebounds, team-high 34 blocked shots) had a terrific game in the win over Tennessee State. The 6-10, 235-pound junior from Coeur d’Alene, Idaho, had 11 points, seven rebounds, eight assists, three steals and two blocks. Buchanan has scored eight points or more in seven of the past eight games. Buchanan struggles to make free throws (47.9%).
Advantage: Iowa State
Shooting guard
• Kentucky senior star Otega Oweh (18.7 points, 4.7 rebounds, 2.7 assists, 1.2 steals, 46.3% FGs) had the signature game of his college career vs. Santa Clara. The 6-4, 220-pound product of Newark, New Jersey, hit a 40-foot shot just ahead of the final horn to send the game into overtime, then scored six points in the extra period. Oweh had a career-high 35 points plus eight rebounds and seven assists vs. the Broncos. According to CBS Sports Research, Oweh joined Oscar Robertson (1959), Bill Bradley (1965) and Larry Bird (1979) as the only players “ever documented with at least 35 points, eight rebounds and seven assists in an NCAA (Tournament) game.”
• Iowa State freshman Killyan Toure (8.5 points, 3.4 rebounds, 45.9% FGs) also had the game of his college career to date in his team’s 2026 NCAA Tournament opener. In the win over Tennessee State, the 6-3, 205 pound product of Pamiers, France, hit 8 of 12 shots and finished with 25 points, 11 rebounds and six assists. Proving no one is perfect, Toure also turned the ball over six times vs. TSU. It was only the second game this season in which Toure scored as many as 20 points.
Advantage: Kentucky
.JPG "LEX_52_260320_Kentucky_SantaClara_rh (1).JPG")
Point guard
• Without fanfare, Kentucky senior Denzel Aberdeen (13.3 points, 2.5 rebounds, 3.6 assists, 35.1% treys) was a big contributor to the win over Santa Clara. The 6-5, 195-pound product of Orlando, Florida, hit 6 of 11 shots, 4 of 8 treys, and finished with 16 points against the Broncos. Aberdeen has committed only eight total turnovers in UK’s past 10 games. Ball security will be vital against an Iowa State defense that forces 15.3 turnovers a game.
• Iowa State senior Tamin Lipsey (12.9 points, 3.9 rebounds, 4.9 assists, 2.2 steals) played only 18 minutes and scored three points on 1-of-6 shooting in the win over Tennessee State. A homegrown, 6-1, 200-pound product of Ames, Iowa, Lipsey had eight points, four rebounds, seven assists and three steals in the two-point loss to Arizona in the Big 12 tourney. If the game is close, Lipsey is not a good foul shooter (64.2%).
Advantage: Even
Bench
• Kentucky junior front-court reserves Mouhamed Dioubate (9 points, 5.6 rebounds, 54% FGs) and Brandon Garrison (4.8 points, 4 rebounds, 1.1 assists, 56.1% FGs) came up huge in the win over Santa Clara. ... A 6-7, 220-pound product of Queens, New York, Dioubate had 17 points, eight rebounds and three blocked shots vs. the Broncos. ... Garrison, a 6-10, 245-pound Oklahoma City product, had 10 points, seven boards and six blocks vs. Santa Clara. ... Sophomore wing Kam Williams (6.1 points, 2.2 rebounds, 35.5% treys) had a key steal and hit a big 3-pointer vs. Santa Clara.
• With the injury to Joshua Jefferson vs. Tennessee State, Iowa State’s Nate Heise (5.2 points, 4 rebounds, 33.8% treys) came off the bench and scored 22 points. Prior to TSU, Heise, a 6-5, 212-pound senior from Lake City, Minnesota, had scored 21 total points in Iowa State’s previous eight games. ... Freshman guard Jamarion Batemon (6.9 points, 38.4% treys) had eight points vs. Tennessee State but made only 3 of 10 shots. ... Freshman Dominykas Pleta (4.6 points, 2.3 rebounds, 71.4% FGS) had nine points, three rebounds and two assists vs. Tennessee State. A 6-11, 240-pound product of Gotha, Germany, Pleta is coming on late, as he has scored a combined 35 points over ISU’s past five games.
Advantage: Kentucky
Trends and history
• Kentucky leads the all-time series with Iowa State 3-0.
• As BYU coach in 2023-24, UK head man Mark Pope and the Cougars split two games vs. Iowa State coach T.J. Otzelberger and the Cyclones, with each team winning on its home court.
• Kentucky is making its 63rd appearance in the men’s NCAA Tournament. The Cats are 133-56 all-time in March Madness.
• Iowa State is making its 25th all-time NCAA Tournament appearance. The Cyclones are seeking to make the sweet 16 for the eighth time in school history and the Final Four for the first time since 1944.
• St. Louis has been good to Kentucky. The Wildcats have won their past eight games and 11 of their past 12 in the city.
Advantage: Kentucky
Prediction
Iowa State 83, Kentucky 77
