How UK women match up vs Texas in NCAA tourney Sweet 16 — with a game prediction

How No. 5 seed Kentucky (25-10, 8-8 SEC) and No. 1 seed Texas (33-3, 13-3 SEC) match up at each position for Saturday’s women’s NCAA Tournament round of 16 contest in Fort Worth — with a game prediction:

Small forward

• Kentucky’s Amelia Hassett (10.6 points, 5.3 rebounds, 36.6% treys) has taken 20 shots in two NCAA Tournament games, all 3-point attempts, and has gone 6 of 20. In UK’s 74-73 win at West Virginia in the round of 32, the 6-foot-4 product of Albury, New South Wales, Australia, had nine points, six rebounds, an assist and a steal. In two career games vs. Texas, a 67-49 loss last season in Lexington and a 64-53 defeat last month in Austin, Hassett has shot a combined 2 of 8 and has averaged 2.5 points.

• Texas star Madison Booker (19.3 points, 6.7 rebounds, 3.8 assists, 2.2 steals) was voted an Associated Press First Team All-American. The 6-1 junior from Ridgeland, Mississippi, was unguardable in the Longhorns’ 100-58 strafing of Oregon in the round of 32, hitting 14 of 21 shots en route to a career-high 40 points. In two prior games vs. UK, Booker has averaged 13.5 points and 6.5 rebounds.

Advantage: Texas

Power forward

• Kentucky senior Teonni Key (11.4 points, 7.4 rebounds, 52.1% FGs) came up huge in the round of 32 win at West Virginia. The 6-5 product of Cary, North Carolina, went for 19 points and 10 rebounds. Through Kentucky’s five postseason games — three in the SEC Tourney, two in the NCAAs — Key is averaging 13.4 points and nine boards. In two career games vs. Texas, Key has averaged 10 points and 6.5 rebounds.

• Texas sophomore Justice Carlton (8.5 points, 3.9 rebounds, 53.1% FGs, 43.8% treys) had a big game vs. UK in Austin. The 6-1 product of Katy, Texas, hit 8 of 12 shots and had 17 points vs. the Cats on Feb. 9. Carlton’s scoring has slowed down in the postseason; she has scored in double figures only once in five games.

Advantage: Kentucky

Center

• Kentucky junior Clara Strack (16.9 points, 10.3 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 2.6 blocks) had a stellar all-around performance in the win at West Virginia. The 6-5 product of Buffalo, New York, had 18 points, 15 rebounds, four assists, four blocks and a steal. Strack has had a points/rebounds double-double in three of UK’s five postseason games to date. In the Cats’ loss at Texas last month, Stack had 14 points and seven rebounds. When the Cats fell to the Longhorns at Memorial Coliseum in 2024-25, Strack fouled out in 18 minutes without scoring.

• Texas junior Breya Cunningham (7.8 points, 5.6 rebounds, 58% FGs) has made 11 of 21 field-goal attempts in five postseason contests. A 6-4 product of Chula Vista, California, Cunningham had six points, four rebounds and two assists in the Longhorns’ earlier victory over Kentucky this season.

Advantage: Kentucky

Shooting guard

• Kentucky junior Asia Boone (10.1 points, 2.7 rebounds, 36.2% 3-pointers) had a big game in UK’s earlier defeat by Texas. The 5-8 San Diego product came off the bench to hit 4 of 6 3-point shots and finished with a team-high 16 points. A transfer from Liberty, Boone is 11 of 29 on 3-point shots in UK’s five contests this postseason.

• Texas sophomore Jordan Lee (13.5 points, 2.6 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 1.5 steals) is averaging 18 points a game in the NCAA tourney. A 6-foot product of Stockton, California, Lee had 13 points, four rebounds and two assists vs. UK in this season’s prior meeting but made only 4 of 13 field-goal tries. In her career to date, Lee is shooting 4 of 20 vs. Kentucky.

Advantage: Texas

Point guard

• Kentucky senior Tonie Morgan (13.9 points, 3.1 rebounds, 8 assists) leads NCAA Division I in assists with 279. The 5-9 product of Tallahassee, Florida, a transfer from Georgia Tech, had 12 points and four assists in the first game vs. Texas, but also had six turnovers. Morgan is one of five finalists for the Nancy Lieberman Award, signifying the best point guard in women’s college basketball.

• Texas redshirt senior Rori Harmon (8.4 points, 3.2 rebounds, 6.1 assists, 2.7 steals) is another of the finalists for the Nancy Lieberman Award. A 5-6 product of Houston, Harmon had nine points, two rebounds, six assists and five steals in the round of 32 win over Oregon. In two career games vs. UK, Harmon has made 3 of 12 shots and averaged 3.5 points, four rebounds and 3.5 assists.

Advantage: Even

Bench

• Kentucky super-senior Jordan Obi (9.2 points, 6 rebounds, 52% FGs) played 29 minutes in the prior game at Texas without scoring. The 6-1 product of Hartford, Connecticut, had 12 points and five rebounds in UK’s 71-56 win over James Madison in the NCAA Tournament round of 64. ... Freshman Kaelyn Carroll (3.5 points, 2.3 rebounds, 30.9% treys) logged 10 minutes in the win at West Virgina. The 6-3 product of Dedham, Massachsetts, did not score but grabbed a pair of rebounds vs. the Mountaineers. ... After playing in only 17 games during the regular season, former Sacred Heart Academy star Josie Gilvin (1.2 points, 43.5% FGs) has played in all five of UK’s postseason games to date.

•Texas senior backup center Kyla Oldacre (10.4 points, 6.1 rebounds, 62.7% FGs) has been a difficult player for Kentucky to contain. In two meetings vs. the Cats, the 6-6 product of Mason, Ohio, has made 7 of 12 shots and averaged 14 points and seven rebounds a game. ... A 6-1 senior forward, Teya Sidberry (5.3 points, 2.8 rebounds, 56.8% FGs) had 11 points, six rebounds and three assists in 24 minutes vs. Oregon in the round of 32. ... A 5-9 freshman guard, Bryanna Preston (5.2 points, 54.7% FGs, 44.4% treys) had 10 points and four assists in the Longhorns’ 87-45 destruction of Missouri State in the round of 64. ... Freshman forward Aaliyah Crump, a 6-1 product of Minnetonka, Minnesota, has shot 1 of 9 so far in the NCAA tourney.

Advantage: Texas

Trends and history

• Texas leads the all-time series with Kentucky 4-0.

• Vic Schaeffer is seeking to coach the Longhorns to the Final Four for a second consecutive year. Schaeffer also coached Mississippi State to Final Four trips in 2017 and 2018.

• Kentucky coach Kenny Brooks has also taken a team to the Final Four. Brooks coached Virginia Tech to the 2023 NCAA Tournament national semifinals.

• Texas is No. 3 in the AP Top 25. Kentucky is 6-7 this season vs. teams ranked the AP Top 25.

• This will be the 19th time Texas has advanced to the round of 16 in the NCAA Tournament. This will be the seventh trip for Kentucky to the regional semifinals.

Advantage: Texas

Prediction

Texas 74, Kentucky 69

Mark Story

Lexington Herald-Leader

859-444-4731

Mark Story has worked in the Lexington Herald-Leader sports department since Aug. 27, 1990, and has been a Herald-Leader sports columnist since 2001. I have covered every Kentucky-Louisville football game since 1994, every UK-U of L basketball game but three since 1996-97 and every Kentucky Derby since 1994. Support my work with a digital subscription