Nearly all Kentucky counties at COVID-19 ‘tipping point’ before Thanksgiving, data show

Daily COVID-19 cases in more than 90% of Kentucky counties have reached a “tipping point” ahead of Thanksgiving, according to data released by Harvard University.

Harvard’s tool charts coronavirus risks by state and county according to the number of daily new cases per 100,000 people over the past seven days.

The map shows four colors to represent the COVID-19 risk level in each county. Green means the county is on track for containment of the virus, yellow shows community spread, orange represents accelerated spread and red means the county has reached a tipping point where stay-at-home orders would be necessary to stop the spread.

As of Friday, 110 counties are at the red level and the remaining 10 are in the orange level.

Where is it the worst in Kentucky?

Lee County, situated about 70 miles southeast of Lexington, has by far the most daily new cases per 100,000 residents in the state, Harvard data show. Its 544.2 average over the most recent seven-day span is more than three times that of the next county.

It is averaging 40.3 daily new cases per day, which is 13th most in the state despite having only 7,000 residents.

Elliott County, 70 miles east of Lexington, is averaging 176.7 daily new cases per 100,000 people, while Monroe County is averaging 140.8.

The 10 counties not in the red level, but rather the orange “accelerated speed” level, are scattered throughout the state.

Gov. Andy Beshear announced a “staggeringly high” 3,649 new COVID-19 cases in Kentucky on Thursday, which is the second-most since the pandemic began.

He announced new restrictions Wednesday to limit attendance of private gatherings and eliminate indoor seating at restaurants and bars.

What about Kentucky’s larger cities?

Lexington announced 212 new cases Friday and there are 14,763 cases since the pandemic began. November represents the first month the city has reported 3,000 new cases.

Per 100,000 residents, Fayette County is averaging 67.9 daily new cases in the most recent seven-day span. This average is the 28th highest in Kentucky, according to Harvard’s data.

Jefferson County, the state’s most populous county, is seeing 60.7 people per 100,000 residents get COVID-19, data show. There have been more than 33,000 COVID-19 cases in Louisville.

And Hardin County, despite it being the sixth-largest city by population in Kentucky, has the third-most daily new cases with an average of 80.9 per day.

Thanksgiving risk

The Georgia Institute of Technology released a map that helps assess the risk of at least one person having COVID-19 at your Thanksgiving celebrations.

A gathering of 50 people in Fayette County poses a 78% chance at least one person having COVID-19, the Georgia Tech data show. An event size of 10 people will pose a 26% chance.

In Lee and Elliott counties, there is more than a 99% chance someone in a gathering of 50 people has the virus, according to the university’s data.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommended Thursday that people should not travel for Thanksgiving but rather only celebrate with people in your own household.

There was a surge in coronavirus cases in Canada after its Thanksgiving on Oct. 12, McClatchy News reported.

This story was originally published November 20, 2020 at 2:34 PM.