Lexington broke a rainfall record this spring. What will the summer hold for KY?
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- Lexington saw 20.23 inches of rain this spring, its fifth wettest on record.
- Eastern Kentucky faces a 33–40% chance of above-normal rain this summer.
- Statewide forecasts suggest higher temperatures, less certainty on rainfall.
Kentucky is leaning toward above-normal temperatures this summer, and the eastern half of the state, a region that already faced deadly flooding this winter, has a decent chance of above-normal precipitation, as well.
That’s the main takeaway from the latest seasonal outlooks from the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center. The CPC outlook calls for an elevated chance, about 33 to 40%, of above-normal precipitation between June and August across eastern Kentucky, with Fayette County near the edge of the affected area.
Lexington saw one of its wettest springs on record this year. Since March 1, the beginning of meteorological spring, the city has seen 20.23 inches of precipitation, which is 6.42 inches above normal levels, according to National Weather Service meteorologist Brian Neudorff, with the agency’s Louisville office.
Here’s a look at the historic amount of precipitation central Kentucky has seen this spring, as well as a general guide for what to expect this summer, though forecasters are cautious about making hard and fast predictions.
Lexington experiences fifth wettest spring on record
Meteorological summer isn’t set to officially begin until Sunday, June 1, but according to data provided by Neudorff, Lexington has already seen one of its all-time wettest springs, specifically the fifth wettest.
Neudorff reports, as of Thursday, the preliminary total for the season rests at 20.23 inches of precipitation between March 1 and May 28.
Another inch or two is likely before the end of the month, with showers expected to move through the region during the day Friday, the NWS forecast shows. If that holds, this spring could crack the top three wettest, according to historical data from Neudorff.
According to Neudorff, the current record as of May 28, stands at the following for the all-time wettest springs in Lexington:
1997: 24.56 inches
2011: 23.84 inches
1935: 22.12 inches
2015: 20.94 inches
2025: 20.23 inches
The monthly rainfall total for Lexington as of May 28 stood at 5.61 inches, which is almost an inch above normal, Neudorff wrote in a Thursday email. Despite that fact, it will likely not go down as one of the top 10 wettest Mays in Lexington.
April brought a total of 10.39 inches of rainfall to the area, making 2025 the third wettest April for Lexington, according to Neudorff.
Is more rain or drought likely for central Kentucky this summer?
It’s a difficult question to answer with certainty, and forecasters are loath to make such predictions.
As the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration points out, weather forecasts quickly lose their high degree of accuracy beyond a seven-day window.
Seasonal outlooks from the CPC offer a look at the chances for above-normal temperatures and precipitation, but they are not weather forecasts.
When it comes to the probability of above-normal temperatures this summer, virtually all of Kentucky is leaning above normal, with a 33 to 40% chance expected, according to the outlook for June, July and August.
For precipitation, eastern Kentucky is leaning toward above-normal chances, while the rest of the state has equal chances of above- or below-normal precipitation. Fayette County roughly straddles the line between the two broad zones.
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Both outlooks are current as of May 15.
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This story was originally published May 30, 2025 at 5:00 AM.