Who will win the SEC Tournament? And how will Kentucky do? We asked some experts.
For this Kentucky team, the Southeastern Conference Tournament begins Thursday afternoon, and John Calipari’s Wildcats know exactly what they have to do to keep their season alive.
With a 9-15 overall record, UK will need to win out — four victories in four days — to make this year’s NCAA Tournament as the SEC’s automatic qualifier. Any stumble along the way will result in the Cats being left out of the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2013 and just the second time in Calipari’s tenure as Kentucky’s coach.
The road won’t be easy.
If the Cats defeat Mississippi State in Thursday’s opener, they’ll face top-seeded Alabama, which beat Kentucky twice in the regular season, in the quarterfinals. After that would probably be a matchup with either Tennessee or Florida, and — if the Cats made it past that round — a team like Arkansas or Louisiana State could await in Sunday’s league title game.
We asked college basketball reporters from inside and outside Kentucky to handicap the Cats’ chances in the tournament. These are their predictions for how UK will do this week, along with their picks for SEC Tournament champion.
SEC Tournament champion: Arkansas
Parrish Alford, Northeast Mississippi Daily Journal: Kentucky loses in the second round to Alabama. I like the Cats to beat an MSU team that can be physical in the post but inconsistent with guard play. The Cats will put forth a decent effort of running Alabama off the three-point line, but it will be hard to hold the Tide to 30 percent three-point shooting as it did in Tuscaloosa in January.
Brian Bennett, The Athletic: Kentucky wins its first game but then loses to Alabama. If the Wildcats could get past the Tide, then a run to the championship game becomes a realistic possibility. But Alabama, a team that actually understands how to space the floor and take efficient shots, is a bad matchup in a lot of ways for Kentucky — witness the two regular-season losses by a combined 31 points. The Cats just aren’t consistent enough to win four games in a row. It hasn’t happened all year.
Mark Bradley, Atlanta Journal-Constitution: I see Kentucky beating Mississippi State, which would be no big deal, and upsetting Alabama, which would be. I’m not sure Bama will have much interest in this tournament, whereas this is it for UK. The end will come in the semis against Florida because water eventually seeks its own level, and Kentucky’s level is as low as it has been in 32 years.
Michael Casagrande, AL.com: Kentucky is an interesting team because it has clearly underperformed, but they have only one way into the NCAA Tournament. I’ve heard from a fair number of Alabama fans who are not excited about the possibility of facing Kentucky again in Nashville, and the Wildcats have flashed potential. That said, I see one win and an exit for Kentucky.
Mike DeCourcy, The Sporting News: I would have Kentucky losing in the quarterfinals to Alabama. I thought a couple of weeks ago that they would have a chance to win it, but that was based on the team continuing to improve over the remainder of the regular season. That hasn’t happened, and it resulted in them having a more difficult bracket that I expect will stop them short of their goal.
Jeff Drummond, Cats Illustrated: I’m typically a complete optimist when it comes to sports, but I find it difficult to envision a scenario in which Kentucky can win four straight games in Nashville after failing to produce a four-game winning streak all season. I think the Cats can play with anyone in the field, but doing it several days in a row is a tall order. I think Alabama will probably make it a hat trick and knock them out Friday. The Crimson Tide have too much offensive firepower for UK.
Dick Gabriel, Big Blue Insider: Like most people, I see Kentucky winning a game before falling again to Alabama, probably the same way it’s lost all year — fighting hard until the final four minutes and then letting it slip away (thus giving a sinister connotation to the term “Final Four” for UK fans in 2021).
Jon Hale, Courier Journal: An embarrassing season ends in the most heartbreaking way possible for Kentucky, which pulls off the massive upset of Alabama in the quarterfinal only to post another in a long line of clunkers against Arkansas, just one win away from the NCAA Tournament automatic bid.
Brian Kennedy, WTVQ: A part of me thinks Kentucky can make a run, but if they beat Mississippi State they then have a date with Alabama, and I’m just not sure they can beat the Tide.
Blair Kerkhoff, Kansas City Star: I like Kentucky to go 1-1 and am influenced by regular-season results. Kentucky pulled out a gritty victory at Mississippi State and fell twice to Alabama. I liked how the Wildcats played Bama the second time and looked ready to win that game. The failures of Kentucky in the final minutes of games doesn’t seem solved.
Myron Medcalf, ESPN: Kentucky’s 44.5 percent clip inside the arc in SEC play (last in the league) is the program’s worst mark of the KenPom era, and those struggles have created offensive droughts for a squad I expect to hit another wall when it meets Alabama in the quarterfinals.
Ben Roberts, Herald-Leader: Kentucky beats Mississippi State convincingly, and — coming off Saturday’s rout of South Carolina — raises hopes even more before falling for the third time to Alabama, which just isn’t a good matchup for these Cats. Even if UK beats Bama — and that wouldn’t be a huge surprise — winning four games in four days is too much to ask for a team plagued by inconsistency all season.
Derek Terry, The Cats’ Pause: Kentucky beats Mississippi State but falls to top-seed Alabama in the SEC quarterfinals. I think it will be a close game, but Alabama shoots the ball more effectively than UK in the end and advances on.
Kyle Tucker, The Athletic: Kentucky advances to the championship game. I just think this team will make it interesting, then run out of gas.
SEC Tournament champion: Alabama
Josh Berrian, WLEX: Kentucky won’t make it past the quarterfinals because I don’t think they would be able to keep up with the Tide offensively, despite being one of the better defensive teams in the league. UK is bound to revert back to one of their bad habits (poor shooting, turnovers, falling short in the final 4 minutes, etc). If UK beats Bama they certainly have a shot of going all the way.
Jeff Borzello, ESPN: I’m picking Alabama to win it, so I guess that means I’ve got Kentucky getting bounced in the quarterfinals. The Crimson Tide beat them twice this season and where Kentucky excels defensively — defending the rim, blocking shots — isn’t much of a factor against Alabama because of their shooting ability. Bama also really guards the arc effectively, so it will be up to Kentucky’s bigs to be difference-makers.
Giana Han, AL.com: I think Kentucky will handle Mississippi State but fall in round two to the Tide. Kentucky has struggled all season, and while it may catch fire, that won’t stand up to an Alabama team that has a stronger foundation for success. Kentucky’s solid game in the post won’t do much if Alabama is hitting threes like it has all season.
Drake Hills, The Tennessean: Kentucky will reach the quarterfinals and bow out of the SEC Tournament to Alabama, despite Isaiah Jackson and Davion Mintz cohesively putting together a slew of efficient offensive performances at the end of the regular season. Starting with Herb Jones, Jaden Shackelford and John Petty Jr., Alabama has too many weapons for the Wildcats to stop, and Kentucky being seed No. 8 — rather than No. 7 — hands John Calipari’s men an unfortunate side of the tournament bracket.
Lee K. Howard, WKYT: The conference tournament takes on a whole new meaning this season for the Wildcats, and I think the task of winning four games in four days will be too large of a hill to climb. I’ll predict the Wildcats win the opener against Mississippi State and then come up short in a shootout with top-seeded Alabama.
Mark Story, Herald-Leader: Mississippi State, with its physicality and ability to play at a “Ben Howland pace” is not a great matchup for the Cats. Nevertheless, my guess is UK finds a way to record its 16th straight win over MSU, then succumbs to Alabama in the quarterfinals.
Marc Weiszer, Athens Banner-Herald: I have Kentucky not getting to the weekend. I think there’s tons of pressure on the Wildcats to make a run, and they won’t have the typical Big Blue Nation crowd behind them. UK hasn’t won back-to-back games away from Rupp since early January, and Alabama beat the Wildcats by double-digits in each of their games.
SEC Tournament champion: Tennessee
John Clay, Herald-Leader: The third time will not be the charm for Kentucky, which will lose in the quarterfinals to Alabama. My pick to click is Tennessee, the preseason favorite that will finally hit the right notes in Nashville.
Larry Vaught, Vaught’s Views: Kentucky winning the SEC Tournament would make a great story, but it is not one I am buying. The Cats are playing better, but not well enough to win four straight. There’s a reason Kentucky is not even one of the top five picks by the oddsmakers and didn’t have a single player on the All-SEC teams. I see Kentucky beating Mississippi State, but not Alabama.
SEC Tournament champion: Kentucky
Darrell Bird, The Cats’ Pause: On paper, it’s preposterous to suggest a team that never won more than three games in a row during the regular season can suddenly win four games in four days to claim the SEC Tournament championship, particularly with the added pressure of knowing they must succeed or be left out of the NCAA Tournament. But this week’s SEC Tourney is all the March Madness guaranteed for Kentucky, which should make them the most desperate team in town. While No. 1 seed Alabama and others can await the NCAA before knowing it’s one-and-done season, Kentucky must now play as if a Final Four berth is at stake. Desperation plus a boost from Saturday’s rout of South Carolina might be enough to push UK over the top. But it all comes down to Friday afternoon. Beat Alabama and there may not be any stopping the miracle.
