Kentucky basketball mailbag: Will the Cats be able to hit three-pointers next season?
The Kentucky mailbag continues this week with more questions about the UK lineup for next season and how John Calipari can overcome some possible challenges with rotations and style of play.
Click here for the first installment of this week’s mailbag — focusing largely on possible additions this offseason — and keep reading for the latest batch of answers to your questions about the Wildcats.
Does the addition of Kellan Grady take UK out of the running for Justin Powell?
There were several questions related to Powell — the Kentucky native who recently announced he was leaving Auburn after one season — and many of those questions mentioned concerns about UK’s three-point shooting, noting that Powell could be a big help in that area.
First, to answer this specific question: I don’t think the addition of Grady — the veteran guard from Davidson — takes UK out of the running for Powell, but I was also starting to get the feeling that Powell wouldn’t end up with the Wildcats even before Grady’s commitment.
Soon after Powell announced he was leaving Auburn two weeks ago, the word in recruiting circles was that Kentucky would be the team to beat. As Powell has gotten deeper into the process and UK has explored the transfer portal further, it’s just seeming less likely that there will be a match here. This could certainly be the wrong read, but — judging by conversations over the past few days — the vibe is that Powell will end up elsewhere, and he should have his pick of just about any program in the country. We’ll see what happens.
One reader question related to Powell laid out the projected roster for next season — with Devin Askew, Dontaie Allen, Nolan Hickman and Davion Mintz in the guard spots, before Grady committed to the Cats — and that question ended with this ...
We still need a shooter that can knock it down even with a hand in the face and still be able to drive. I want to know who we are looking at that can spread the floor, besides Powell. We need more than just one or two shooters. Who will it be?
The easy answer there is Kellan Grady, and he could very well be a better fit for that role.
Powell shot 44.2 percent from three-point range as a freshman. Mighty impressive, but that was a small sample size (just 43 attempts over 10 games). Grady, meanwhile, has been consistent throughout his four-year college career, shooting 37.2 percent from three as a freshman, a dip to 34.1 percent as a sophomore, then 37.0 percent as a junior and 38.2 percent this past season. The sample size there: 656 attempts over 115 games.
It’s safe to say Grady will bring a proven three-point shooting — and just plain overall scoring — ability to Lexington, where he also might not be the focal point of opposing defenses to the extent that he has been over the past few seasons.
If Mintz returns, you have another highly capable three-point shooter (37.8 percent on 148 attempts this past season), and then there’s Dontaie Allen (39.7 percent on 78 attempts as a freshman). That would be three pretty great shooters, and they shouldn’t be alone.
Incoming recruit Nolan Hickman projects as one of the best outside-shooting point guards John Calipari has had at Kentucky, and he will compete for the starting job right away. Devin Askew, judging by his history before coming to UK, is a much better three-point shooter than he showed this past season (27.8 percent on 54 attempts). He has the potential to be a plus-35-percent outside shooter in college, and perhaps that will come as he gets more comfortable here. Wing recruit Bryce Hopkins is also capable of knocking down shots.
On paper, that projects as a promising bunch beyond the arc.
Now, if Mintz decides to move on from college basketball, it’s almost certain that Kentucky will add at least one more perimeter player for next season. (And the Cats might be doing so even if Mintz is back).
A couple of names to watch — beyond Powell — would be Minnesota point guard transfer Marcus Carr (just a 31.7 percent shooter on 189 attempts this past season, but he was a 36.1 percent shooter the year before) and likely top-50 recruit Tamar “Scoop” Bates, who has backed out of his Texas commitment following a coaching change. Bates is a capable shooter — and a lefty — with high upside from beyond the arc, and he possesses plenty of burst to get past defenders on the perimeter. He’ll keep opponents honest.
Players are also continuing to flood into the NCAA transfer portal at record numbers, and there are some other intriguing names out there rumored to be considering such a move.
If Mintz leaves — or UK otherwise feels it needs more shooting for next season — there should be plenty of options, even if Powell decides to go elsewhere.
With Grady’s addition and UK seemingly on the trail for more help, do you foresee a scenario where a player assumed to be returning may rethink his decision?
I don’t think Grady’s addition alone will cause anyone to rethink a decision to return to Kentucky, but if more players come aboard, this could become an issue.
If Davion Mintz and Keion Brooks return, that’s 11 scholarship players projected for next season. And if they both return, that shouldn’t affect the decisions we think are coming from Dontaie Allen, Devin Askew, Jacob Toppin and Lance Ware to stay at Kentucky.
If Mintz leaves and UK adds another guard, that might not have much of an effect either. Same thing goes for if Brooks decides to move on and Kentucky replaces him, especially with a guard or wing.
Basically, if that number of scholarship guys stays at 11 (or lower), there should be plenty of opportunity for everyone to get a fair shot to compete for playing time next season, though nothing will be guaranteed. It’s worth noting that all four of those expected returnees — Allen, Askew, Toppin and Ware — knew what they were signing up for when they came to Kentucky, and they knew that John Calipari and his staff would continue to recruit other talented players at their position. None of them were seriously projected as one-and-done players at Kentucky, and they all came here with the long-term in mind.
That said, it’s also worth noting that UK has not officially announced the return of any of those players. The program is meticulous about how it handles such announcements, and until there’s some sort of official word from Kentucky, it’s best not to lock anyone into next season’s roster.
What if an elite talent in the frontcourt emerges, wants to come to Kentucky, and Calipari feels he simply can’t turn him down? What if Mintz comes back and UK has a chance to land an instant-impact and proven veteran point guard from the transfer portal? How would that affect the projected returnees? It could have a pretty big impact on at least a couple of decisions.
These are hypotheticals, of course, but these very scenarios have been a topic of conversation in recent days, and until the transfer portal finally calms down — or UK says with 100 percent surety that a certain player is coming back — don’t count on anything just yet.
How do you see the frontcourt rotation playing out? UK has a ton of pieces up there that didn’t really fit last year. Bryce Hopkins and Daimion Collins may add more versatility to that group, but it’s still hard to see much shooting help at small forward.
Kentucky’s frontcourt looks to be loaded next season. A bit too loaded? Possibly.
Best guess, as things stand right now, would be for Collins to start at the “4” with West Virginia transfer Oscar Tshiebwe starting at the “5.”
Collins should be UK’s top NBA prospect, and he has the athleticism and shot-blocking prowess that Calipari covets in his big men. (Several recruiting observers have independently compared him to Isaiah Jackson with a better offensive game).
Tshiebwe is a proven performer at the highest college level, and you don’t add someone like that to play him in a reserve role. (If Tshiebwe buys into what Calipari wants, he also fits the mold of the tough, athletic, high-motor rebounding machine that the UK coach prizes down low).
Kentucky also has Lance Ware, Jacob Toppin, Hopkins and possibly Keion Brooks. That’s six guys who deserve to be on the court but are probably better suited to play the “4” or “5” roles at this point in their careers. It’s going to be difficult to manage those minutes.
The answer almost certainly comes in the form of playing Toppin and Hopkins (and Brooks if he’s back) in the “3” spot from time to time. They all have the potential to do so, and Toppin, especially, has proven he can defend perimeter players. As for the shooting ability from that position, don’t give up on Brooks or Toppin just yet. They can still evolve into good outside shooters. And Hopkins’ coach told me recently that outside shooting is the most underrated aspect of his game. He thinks he’ll be a consistent shooter in college.
The obvious problem with playing those guys in the “3” role is you’re limiting the amount of offensive playmaking ability you have on the court with such lineups. Unless Brooks and/or Toppin make some advances in their perimeter skills this offseason — and that’s certainly possible; it wouldn’t be a surprise if either is a star a year from now — or Hopkins comes in and shows he can can outplay wings away from the basket, such a lineup could have trouble spacing the floor, similar to what Kentucky fans saw this past season.
Bottom line: If Davion Mintz is back, UK is going to need to play a lot of three-guard lineups to be at its best offensively. If Mintz is not back, the Cats are almost certainly adding another impact guard anyway, leading to the same scenario. Kellan Grady didn’t come here to sit. At least one of Nolan Hickman or Devin Askew will play major minutes. And Dontaie Allen needs shots, too.
So, unless Calipari returns to a platoon system — he’s been adamant he’s never doing it again — someone is going to get squeezed for minutes next season. And if a starting frontcourt pair — like Tshiebwe and Collins, let’s say — are getting 25ish minutes each, and UK has all these capable guards, it seems likely that at least one player in that wing/post rotation is going to be doing a lot more sitting than playing.
There are only 200 minutes of PT to go around. Start doing the math, and it gets tricky.
This story was originally published April 1, 2021 at 7:35 AM.
