Ten questions facing the 2021-22 Kentucky men’s basketball team

Ten questions and 10 answers that could dictate the fate of the 2021-22 University of Kentucky men’s basketball team:

1. Will Sahvir Wheeler be the point guard presence that Kentucky lacked last season?

The point guard position was unsettled last season going into February. Kentucky finally — and reluctantly — moved shooting guard Davion Mintz to point guard. The concern was possibly robbing Peter (Kentucky also shot poorly) to pay Paul (find consistent point guard play). UK had more turnovers (349) than assists (313) last season (only the second time that’s happened since 2008-09). That was a factor in losing so many games that came down to the final four minutes.

Wheeler led the Southeastern Conference in assists last season and is a point guard/floor leader in the classic sense. His average of 7.4 assists per game came on a Georgia team that shot three-pointers more poorly than UK (32.4 percent to UK’s 33.5).

2. Can Kellan Grady and CJ Fredrick give Kentucky a viable three-point shooting threat that can spread defenses and open up driving lanes to the basket?

UK’s deficiencies in perimeter shooting and finishes in the paint last season are reflected in its 41.7-percent shooting (the program’s poorest since 1962-63).

UK’s average of 6.4 three-point baskets per game last season ranked 255th nationally. Five in-state schools (Eastern Kentucky, Murray State, Northern Kentucky, Morehead State and Bellarmine) averaged more three-point baskets. So, the bar for improvement is not set high.

The track record suggests better shooting. Grady, a 2,000-point scorer for Davidson, made 36.6 percent of his three-point shots in four seasons. Fredrick was even better, making 46.1 percent of his threes as a freshman for Iowa and 47.4 percent as a sophomore.

3. Will Dontaie Allen benefit from not having the almost sole responsibility to make three-point shots?

Allen was hot and cold last season. He made two shots in the first seven games, had a starburst at Mississippi State (7-of-11 on three-pointers), then made only two shots in the regular season’s final nine games.

Maybe he felt the pressure of being the personification of the longed for homegrown star (scoring 3,255 points for Pendleton County High School). Other than Mintz (37.8 percent), Allen was a solo act as a shooter.

Grady and Fredrick are expected to ease the weight on Allen’s shoulders.

It would also help if Allen diversified his game. Opponents could concentrate on defending the outside shot for a player who had only six assists and 14 free-throw attempts last season.

4. What should we think of Oscar Tshiebwe being less productive last season than he was in 2019-20?

As a sophomore for West Virginia, Tshiebwe averaged fewer points (8.5 versus 11.2), rebounds (7.8 vs. 9.3), blocks (0.4 vs. 1.0) and free-throw attempts (2.8 vs. 4.6) than he did as a freshman. He also shot free throws less accurately (60.7 percent vs. 70.8).

Several factors have been cited to explain the less impactful season. A subpar workout routine in the summer of 2020 left him out of shape. He and fellow “big” Derek Culver had similar games predicated on low-post strength, and thus got in each other’s way.

That Tshiebwe transferred suggests waning interest in playing for West Virginia.

In April, Tshiebwe sounded eager to play for Kentucky. “Kentucky was my school,” he said. “My favorite school. I chose West Virginia, but look what God did. He sent me to the place I always prayed for and meant to be.”

5. What does not adding Kofi Cockburn mean?

One memory from last season was John Calipari lamenting Kentucky’s lack of an imposing presence around the basket. This was never more vivid than when he said Georgia Tech “manhandled” UK.

The overall rebound advantage over opponents of 38.0-36.2 was Kentucky’s smallest since the Billy Gillespie season of 2007-08.

Cockburn, a 7-footer with bulk (285 pounds), manhandled some opponents in his two seasons for Illinois. In 2019-20, he averaged 13.3 points and 8.8 rebounds. He was named Big Ten Freshman of the Year. As a sophomore, he nearly averaged a double-double (17.7 points, 9.5 rebounds).

That Cockburn ultimately decided not to follow coaches Orlando Antigua and Ron ”Chin” Coleman to UK leaves Tshiebwe (6-9, 255) as the lone “big” with height and width. His tallest teammates are a slender threesome: Lance Ware (6-9, 225), Jacob Toppin (6-9, 200) and freshman Daimion Collins (6-9, 202).

6. What should we expect from the three freshmen?

This season’s freshmen should enjoy a significant advantage over their many one-and-done predecessors. They will not shoulder make-or-break responsibility for team success.

In Calipari’s first 12 seasons as UK coach, a freshman led the team in scoring nine times. And seven times three or more freshmen were among the top five scorers.

TyTy Washington, Daimion Collins and Bryce Hopkins join a Kentucky team blessed with returnees (Keion Brooks, Mintz, Allen, Toppin and Ware) and imports from the transfer portal (Grady, Fredrick, Tshiebwe and Wheeler).

With Washington, Collins and Hopkins, star turns seem likely, but not imperative.

7. How might a return to the normal bonding experience help?

Calipari made the preseason of 2020 sound like something approaching solitary confinement. No roommates. Meals brought to each player’s room. A reduction to near zero for the customary group activities at the coach’s home.

“We were separated,” Calipari recalled during an October appearance at the Lexington Rotary Club. “And I feel we never became a team.”

In the summer, Wheeler spoke of this UK team accomplishing its bonding mission. “We’re a competitive bunch,” he said. “But you can tell we love each other already.”

8. What difference will it make to have Rupp Arena seats occupied by fans this season?

A lack of talent (by Kentucky standards) surely played a part in a 5-6 home record (UK’s only losing home record since going 2-8 in Alumni Gym in 1926-27). The 2021 NBA Draft was the first in Calipari’s time as coach in which UK had only one first-round pick (Isaiah Jackson at No. 22).

Because of coronavirus restrictions, Kentucky’s average announced home crowd was 3,075. That was the first average less than 21,000 in Rupp Arena history. More than once, Calipari and players spoke of how a large enthusiastic crowd can inspire the home team and hinder the visiting team.

Going into last season, Calipari’s record as UK coach in Rupp Arena was 183-11 (winning percentage of .943). Last season’s winning percentage was as starkly different as the attendance: .455.

Draw your own conclusions.

9. How might the schedule impact Kentucky’s chances of success?

Only one cupcake opponent early after no exhibition games hindered team development last season. Rather than coast through weeks of confidence-building games against punching-bag opponents, Kentucky played a savvy veteran team in Richmond, then Kansas, Georgia Tech, Notre Dame, North Carolina and at Louisville in the first month.

Kentucky limped into SEC play with a 1-6 record.

This season’s schedule mirrors 2018-19 when UK opened against Duke (and lost by 34 points), then came a month of home games against cupcakes: Southern Illinois, North Dakota, VMI, Winthrop, Tennessee State, Monmouth and UNC Greensboro. Winning by an average of 21.6 points surely helped the UK team mesh and come within an overtime loss to Auburn in the Elite Eight of advancing to the Final Four.

10. Final Four? National championship?

Without the benefit of seeing into the future, it seems safe to say Kentucky is equipped to reinforce the obvious: last season’s 9-16 record — the program’s second losing record since 1927 — was an aberration. While the customary Final Four-or-bust expectations might be back in place by March, keep in mind that several teams are capable of winning the national championship every year. Alas, the NCAA Tournament format dictates that only one team does. Unbeaten teams in the regular season that fell short include defending champion UNLV in 1991, Indiana in 1975 and Kentucky in 2015.

2021-22 UK men’s basketball schedule

(Home games in all capital letters)

Nov. 9: 1-Duke, 9:30 p.m. (ESPN)

Nov. 12: 2-ROBERT MORRIS, 7 p.m. (SEC Network)

Nov. 16: 2-MOUNT ST. MARY’S, 7 p.m. (SEC Network)

Nov. 19: 2-OHIO, 7 p.m. (SEC Network)

Nov. 22: ALBANY, TBA (TBA)

Nov. 26: NORTH FLORIDA, 7 p.m. (SEC Network)

Nov. 29: CENTRAL MICHIGAN, 7 p.m. (ESPN)

Dec. 7: 3-SOUTHERN, 7 p.m. (SEC Network)

Dec. 11: At Notre Dame, 5:15 p.m. (ESPN)

Dec. 18: 4-Ohio State, 5:15 p.m. (CBS)

Dec. 22: LOUISVILLE, 6 p.m. (ESPN)

Dec: 29: MISSOURI, 7 p.m. (SEC Network)

Dec. 31: HIGH POINT, Noon (SEC Network)

Jan. 4: At LSU, 7 p.m. (ESPN)

Jan. 8: GEORGIA, 6 p.m. (SEC Network)

Jan. 11: At Vanderbilt, 7 p.m. (ESPN or ESPN2)

Jan. 15: TENNESSEE, 1 p.m. (ESPN)

Jan. 19: At Texas A&M, 8:30 p.m. (SEC Network)

Jan. 22: At Auburn, 1 or 1:30 p.m. (CBS)

Jan. 25: MISSISSIPPI STATE, 9 p.m. (ESPN)

Jan. 29: 5-At Kansas, 6 p.m. (ESPN)

Feb. 2: VANDERBILT, 7 p.m. (SEC Network)

Feb. 5: At Alabama, 8 p.m. (ESPN or ESPN2)

Feb. 8: At South Carolina, 7 p.m. (ESPN or ESPN2)

Feb. 12: FLORIDA, 4 p.m. (ESPN or ESPN2)

Feb. 15: At Tennessee, 9 p.m. (ESPN or ESPN2)

Feb. 19: ALABAMA, 1 p.m. (CBS)

Feb. 23: LSU, 9 p.m. (ESPN or ESPN2)

Feb. 26: At Arkansas, 2 p.m. (CBS)

March 1: OLE MISS, 7 p.m. (ESPN or ESPN2)

March 5: At Florida, 2 p.m. (CBS)

March 9-13: SEC Tournament-6

1-Champions Classic at Madison Square Garden in New York; 2-Kentucky Classic in Rupp Arena; 3-Unity Series in Rupp Arena; 4-CBS Sports Classic at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas; 5-SEC-Big 12 Challenge. 6-At Amalie Arena in Tampa, Fla.

This story was originally published November 7, 2021 at 7:00 AM.

Jerry Tipton

Lexington Herald-Leader

859-472-4091

Jerry Tipton has covered Kentucky basketball beginning with the 1981-82 season to the present. He is a member of the United States Basketball Writers Association Hall of Fame. Support my work with a digital subscription