UK basketball projected to play close SEC games. How does this compare to recent seasons?
When the final buzzer sounded on Kentucky basketball’s first road SEC contest of the season — Tuesday night’s disappointing 82-69 loss at Georgia — there wasn’t a dramatic final possession or sequence that sealed the result.
The Wildcats trailed the Bulldogs by at least 10 points for the final six minutes of the game, and the game’s outcome felt determined even longer before that.
While there have been some outliers during the early stages of the SEC men’s basketball season, the final margins of games have been larger than expected.
Of the 16 SEC games contested, only one — Texas A&M’s two-point win at Oklahoma on Wednesday night — had a final score decided by four points or fewer. Of course, end-of-game events such as fouling or a late scoring run can skew these numbers, but the overarching point remains that there haven’t been many SEC contests decided in the final possessions.
Neither of Kentucky’s SEC games — Saturday’s six-point home win over Florida and Tuesday’s 13-point road loss at Georgia — have been decided within a four-point margin.
But, the analytics still say that Kentucky and head coach Mark Pope should expect to play plenty of close contests over the final 16 games of league play.
Per KenPom, eight of UK’s remaining 16 SEC games are expected to be decided by four points or less.
Those games are:
▪ Jan. 14 home game against Texas A&M: KenPom calls for a 79-77 UK win.
▪ Jan. 18 home game against Alabama: KenPom calls for a 90-89 Alabama win.
▪ Jan. 25 road game at Vanderbilt: KenPom calls for an 86-84 UK win.
▪ Feb. 4 road game at Ole Miss: KenPom calls for an 81-79 Ole Miss win.
▪ Feb. 11 home game against Tennessee: KenPom calls for a 75-73 Tennessee win.
▪ Feb. 15 road game at Texas: KenPom calls for an 80-79 Texas win.
▪ Feb. 26 road game at Oklahoma: KenPom calls for an 83-82 Oklahoma win.
▪ March 8 road game at Missouri: KenPom calls for an 83-82 UK win.
While these predictive metrics are exactly that, predictions, KenPom’s projections are nonetheless calling for Kentucky basketball to play a plethora of close games during the stretch run of the season.
And it’s not just KenPom, either.
The Torvik numbers also call for Kentucky to play a rash of close games over the rest of the SEC season. Torvik’s prediction model says seven of UK’s remaining 16 SEC contests will be decided by four or fewer points.
History of Kentucky basketball’s recent close games in SEC play
The 2017-18 college basketball season is when the SEC — as a league — truly arrived on the national stage. The SEC sent eight teams to the NCAA Tournament that season. It hasn’t sent fewer than six teams to any subsequent edition of March Madness. Eight teams from the SEC made the field of 68 in each of the last two seasons.
Over this same time frame — the last seven college basketball seasons — UK hasn’t played more than six league games in one season that were decided by four or fewer points.
The models are calling for this to change in 2025.
Since SEC men’s basketball rocketed to national prominence with that 2017-18 season, Kentucky has played 30 league games that were decided by a four-point margin. The Cats have gone 17-13 (56.7%) across those contests.
Among the notable wins in this group?
A home triumph in overtime over Vanderbilt on Jan. 30, 2018, that saw Quade Green make a winning layup with five seconds to go. A 29-point outing by Tyler Herro on Feb. 26, 2019, that spearheaded a 15-point comeback win for UK over Arkansas at Rupp Arena. Another classic comeback that saw UK rally from 18 points down to win at Florida on March 7, 2020. And Reed Sheppard’s masterful 32-point performance last season — which included a game-winning runner with less than a second left — as Kentucky won, again, at Mississippi State on Feb. 27, 2024.
And the notable defeats?
A home loss to LSU on Feb. 12, 2019, that saw Tigers’ forward Kavell Bigby-Williams controversially tip in a shot to win at the buzzer. A loss at South Carolina on Jan. 15, 2020, in which Gamecocks’ guard Jermaine Couisnard hit a 3-pointer at the buzzer. A last-second layup by Georgia’s P.J. Horne that gave the Bulldogs a home win over the Wildcats on Jan. 20, 2021, which also snapped a 14-game losing streak for UGA against UK. And last season’s buzzer-beating loss at LSU, when guard Tyrell Ward scored on a putback for the Tigers as time expired.
Over this same period, Pope oversaw 15 conference games — across three different leagues — between his time at Utah Valley and BYU that had a final score decided by four or fewer points. Pope’s teams went 6-9 (40%) in those games.
The Wildcats have already played two games this season — the Dec. 3 road loss to Clemson and the Dec. 7 overtime win over Gonzaga in Seattle — that had a final score margin of four or fewer points.
While this hasn’t been a feature of SEC play this season, yet, it seems like a safe bet that the SEC will have plenty of games that come down to the wire over the next two months.
Saturday
No. 6 Kentucky at No. 14 Mississippi State
When: 8:30 p.m. EST
TV: SEC Network
Radio: WLAP-AM 630, WBUL-FM 98.1
Records: Kentucky 12-3 (1-1 SEC), Mississippi State 14-1 (2-0)
Series: Kentucky leads 103-21
Last meeting: Kentucky won 91-89 on Feb. 27, 2024, in Starkville, Mississippi
