Where will Kentucky go in the NCAA Tournament? The bracketologists are now in agreement
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SEC Tournament game day: Alabama 99, Kentucky 70
Click below for more of the Herald-Leader and Kentucky.com’s coverage of Friday night’s men’s basketball game between Kentucky and Alabama in the Southeastern Conference Tournament at Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, Tennessee.
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A wild day of college basketball — in Kentucky’s neck of the woods at the SEC Tournament and elsewhere — has set the stage for what should be another exciting weekend leading up to Selection Sunday.
The NCAA Tournament brackets are being updated accordingly.
Kentucky defeated Oklahoma 85-84 late Thursday night — the game actually ended Friday morning — on Otega Oweh’s stunning basket with less than a second on the clock, but the Wildcats once again lost Lamont Butler to injury, and there are fears that he might not be able to return to the court again this season.
UK will play Alabama in the SEC Tournament quarterfinals at around 9:30 p.m. EDT Friday on the SEC Network.
Meanwhile, over at the ACC Tournament, the Duke Blue Devils — ranked No. 1 in the country — advanced to play North Carolina in Friday’s semifinals, but their victory over Georgia Tech in the postseason opener might have come at a great cost.
Duke freshman Cooper Flagg — favorite for national player of the year honors — suffered an ankle injury in Thursday’s game, throwing his status into question at the most important time on the sport’s calendar.
Back to the SEC: Texas pulled off a double-overtime victory over Texas A&M on Thursday that might have clinched the Longhorns a spot in the NCAA Tournament field, which most projections now say will get a record 14 teams — every program except for LSU and South Carolina — into the field.
Kentucky basketball in bracketology
The near-unanimous sentiment among bracketologists by Friday afternoon was that Kentucky will be a 3 seed in the 2025 NCAA Tournament field, with Selection Sunday set for 6 p.m. EDT on CBS and the tournament selection committee already huddled in Indianapolis and piecing together the bracket.
As of noon Friday, here’s what some prominent outlets projected for the Wildcats:
▪ ESPN’s Joe Lunardi had UK as the No. 9 overall team — the top 3 seed — going into the win over Oklahoma, and that status has not changed. Lunardi projects the Cats will play Montana in Milwaukee before facing the winner of a UCLA-Drake game in round two.
▪ The Washington Post’s projection on Friday morning also had UK as the 3 seed in Milwaukee, playing against Utah Valley — where Mark Pope got his first head coaching job — and then a possible second-round matchup against Memphis or Drake.
▪ Longtime national bracketologist Dave Ommen — of the Bracketville website — also had the Cats as the No. 9 overall team and a 3 seed, also playing in Milwaukee, against 14-seeded Montana, with the winner of Saint Mary’s-West Virginia up next in the bracket.
▪ On3.com’s latest bracketology has Kentucky as a 3 seed — again, in Milwaukee — playing against Troy in round one, with UCLA or San Diego State up next.
▪ USA Today’s new bracket Friday morning placed Kentucky as a 3 seed, too, but that one has the Cats playing their first week in Providence — against Troy in the first round — with the winner of Louisville and Vanderbilt in round two.
▪ The CBS Sports bracketology from Jerry Palm is one of the few outliers that still has Kentucky as a 4 seed. Palm projects the Cats will play 13-seeded Yale in round one in Providence before a matchup with Michigan or Liberty in the round of 32.
Nearly all of the updates that were logged Friday morning on BracketMatrix.com — an aggregation site that posts dozens of projections — had UK as a 3 seed. Auburn, Duke, Houston and Florida are the unanimous picks as 1 seeds, with Alabama, Tennessee and Michigan State clear selections as the first three 2 seeds.
The top contenders for the final 2 seed are thought to be St. John’s and Texas Tech, and both teams won their respective conference tournament openers Thursday, a development that might have ended any chance the Cats had of nabbing the final 2 seed, no matter what happens in the SEC Tournament.
With the exception of the CBS bracket, every major projection that was updated Friday morning had Texas in the NCAA Tournament field, which would give the SEC a total of 14 teams. The record for most teams from a single conference in March Madness is 11, which the Big East achieved in 2011.
Lamont Butler, Cooper Flagg injuries
The injuries to Kentucky’s Lamont Butler and Duke’s Cooper Flagg on Thursday should not have any noticeable effect on either team’s NCAA Tournament status.
ESPN’s Joe Lunardi was asked about UK’s injury situation, specifically, earlier this week — Butler has missed eight games previously with injuries, Jaxson Robinson and Kerr Kriisa have already been ruled out for the season, and starting forward Andrew Carr has also been sidelined recently — and he didn’t think the selection committee would take that into account.
“My sense is that we talk more about player availability than the committee does,” Lunardi said. “It used to be a bigger deal, I think.”
That comment came before Butler’s latest injury, but — even if UK announces he won’t return this season — the Cats have shown they can beat NCAA Tournament-caliber teams with him on the sidelines.
Flagg’s status will be more closely watched nationally, and CBS Sports bracketologist Jerry Palm cited the precedent of Cincinnati losing a 1 seed following the season-ending injury to Kenyon Martin. But that was 25 years ago, and it was known by Selection Sunday that Martin would be unable to play any further for the Bearcats.
Duke is highly unlikely to know Flagg’s status by the end of this weekend, so the Blue Devils should remain in line for a 1 seed. Of course, if Flagg is out — or plays while significantly injured — that would severely hurt Duke’s chances of advancing through the March Madness bracket.
Before the injury, the Blue Devils were viewed by many as the favorites to win the NCAA title.
This story was originally published March 14, 2025 at 12:37 PM.
