Two backup quarterbacks beat Missouri last week. Can Kentucky make it happen again?
If Kentucky’s offense against Missouri can play to a level similar to what it did against Arkansas, the Wildcats have a solid opportunity to play spoiler at home.
That’s a big “if,” however: UK this season lags all but 16 of the nation’s 130 Football Bowl Subdivision teams in points per game (20.1). It averages 355.1 yards an outing, ahead of only Tennessee and Vanderbilt in the Southeastern Conference. That’s not an ideal combination as a 9.5-point underdog.
The Cats might look to the Commodores — a 34-10 loser to a 2-5 UNLV squad just two weeks ago — for inspiration: Vandy was held to 315 total yards, below its season average, but managed to upset Missouri last week despite a.) starting third-string quarterback Mo Hasan for the first time and b.) losing Hasan to a head injury, prompting the return of ex-starter Riley Neal, who sealed the deal with a game-winning touchdown throw in the final period.
Vanderbilt, which through seven games has allowed a league-worst 456 yards per game, was able to hold Missouri to 293 total yards, its worst showing of the season. Kentucky’s defense is allowing almost 100 fewer yards than the ‘Dores each outing and has trended upward since the bye, giving up 287.5 yards over the last two games. Particularly impressive at Georgia was how capable the front seven looked against a top-10 team for most of a nasty night on the road.
Wildcats head coach Mark Stoops is pleased with the progress of his defense.
“There were some inconsistencies at times this year with our standards as far as how hard we play, and I think these guys are understanding that and playing very hard and playing more and more confident,” Stoops said Monday. “ ... If we keep that mentality for the second part of the season here and continue to improve, then I like our chances.”
Still, there’s that pesky offense thing. Missouri is much, much closer to Georgia than it is Arkansas, defensively; the Tigers rank second to the Bulldogs in total yards allowed (270.1 per game) and fourth in points allowed (16.6) among SEC teams.
Kentucky has won its last four meetings against the Tigers, but if it’s going to make it five straight it will need either a wide receiver or a hobbled transfer to rise to the occasion.
Sawyer Smith showed promise in the loss to Florida, completing 23 of 35 passes for 267 yards and two TDs with three interceptions (the last, it should be noted, on a Hail Mary attempt as the game ended). In his next two starts he was 26-of-73 for 322 yards and two picks, the effects of two arm injuries proving to be much more detrimental than he and Kentucky’s coaches contended leading up to those games.
Lynn Bowden looked other-worldly against an Arkansas team that’s now up to 14 straight losses to SEC foes, but fell back to Earth in Saturday’s 21-0 loss at Georgia. He was effective as a runner — 99 yards on 17 carries — but not so much as a passer (though neither was Georgia counterpart Jake Fromm), going 2-for-15. Bowden threw only 11 times against the Razorbacks but completed seven attempts, one for a TD.
During its win streak over Missouri, Kentucky has won with three different quarterbacks — Patrick Towles, Stephen Johnson and Terry Wilson — who’ve completed at least half of their passes in each contest. Only once during the streak did a quarterback complete fewer than 20 passes (Johnson was 14-of-23 for 208 yards and two TDs in a 35-21 win in 2016; Benny Snell rushed for 192 yards and two scores in that one).
Recent outings suggest that in order to take down the Tigers, in particular, Kentucky will need to get something going through the air. Bowden tore Arkansas up on the ground — 196 yards and two TDs on 24 carries — but over the course of its win streak UK quarterbacks have combined for 76 yards and a single TD on 32 carries. He’s the purest athlete of the quintet, but is it realistic to think Bowden can buck that trend against a unit like the one UK has faced the last four years?
“They’re very similar to the way they have been,” Stoops said. “And one thing I think, you really look at them and they play hard. They really have some guys up front that I really respect the way they play, they play tough, they play physical, doesn’t surprise me.”
A completely healthy Smith would be a potential cure-all, or at least afford UK a bigger buffet of offensive options. Whether that’s a player who will exist by this weekend or at all through the remainder of 2019 remains to be seen.
Only two things are certain: Kentucky needs to actually score this weekend to win the game, and who might lead it to the promised land is anybody’s guess.
“We’ll see what direction the game plan goes this week with who is playing quarterback,” Stoops said.
Next game
Missouri at Kentucky
7:30 p.m. Saturday (SEC Network)
