UK-Virginia Tech predictions: Lynn Bowden and the Big Blue Wall dominate Belk Bowl
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UK in the 2019 Belk Bowl
The University of Kentucky will play Virginia Tech in the 2019 Belk Bowl on Dec. 31. Read more about the Wildcats’ opponent and destination.
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It’s almost football time in the Queen City! Here are some final thoughts on how Kentucky’s game against Virginia Tech in the Belk Bowl might play out on Tuesday.
The wall
Virginia Tech through the weekend ranked 27th overall with 123.4 rushing yards allowed per game. As far as that particular metric goes, Tech is the second-best run defense UK will face this season — only Georgia is better (the Bulldogs were third nationally at 76 yards per game through Sunday). Optimists will recall that UK in a deluge at Georgia accumulated 163 rushing yards, more than any team the SEC East Division winner played this year. Pessimists will point to Kentucky’s 17 passing yards in that contest — the fewest allowed by Georgia’s defense — and convince themselves that a Bud Foster-led defense will have its way with a one-dimensional approach.
The most crucial difference between Georgia and Virginia Tech is the size of their defensive lines. Kentucky has a decisive advantage as far as both lines are concerned but the contrast is particularly notable in how the Wildcats’ “Big Blue Wall” matches up against the Hokies’ first line of defense. Kentucky boasts four starting linemen who stand 6-foot-5 or taller while center Drake Jackson is 6-2, the same height as Tech’s tallest lineman on the other side (right defensive end Emmanuel Belmar, a 6-2, 245-pound junior). The Hokies’ heaviest defensive lineman is backup nose tackle Mario Kendricks, a 6-foot, 293-pound freshman; Kentucky’s leanest “bigs” in the o-line rotation are Naasir Watkins and Quintin Wilson, reserves who are listed at 302.
Scheme matters, but size will matter more. I don’t expect Kentucky to deviate too much from what got it here — when you average 353.3 rushing yards per game with a receiver playing quarterback, there’s little justification to force throws — but it may air it out a little more than usual to keep the Hokies’ defense honest, and to collect additional game film of its pass plays with spring camp right around the corner.
See Sawyer?
Sawyer Smith, a transfer from Troy University who started in Kentucky’s first three games against SEC foes, was purportedly healthy enough to start for the Wildcats down the stretch but the staff opted to stick with Lynn Bowden because of how well things were going. It’s hard to find fault with that line of thinking when wins are on the line, but what about the future?
Offensive coordinator Eddie Gran has said he’ll take lessons learned throughout this season and apply them to UK’s offense in 2020 and beyond, but the Wildcats as a whole wish to get back to the more balanced attack they deployed early in the season. UK over its first five games threw 173 passes, about 65 percent of the total 268 that Terry Wilson threw in 13 games in 2018; since Bowden took over, UK has thrown 71 passes.
Smith this year accounted for 125 of UK’s throws, the bulk of them coming after he suffered wrist and shoulder injuries that limited his effectiveness and ultimately led to the installment of Bowden at quarterback. Wilson will not be available in the spring and Bowden will be waiting to hear his name called by an NFL team, leaving Smith as the presumptive No. 1 option at quarterback. Why not get him some run?
It’d be unfair to Bowden and the team that’s rallied around him to move him back to his original position at this point, but this would be a good opportunity to mix in Smith for a series or some plays to see what he can do at full strength with a game on the line. It’s nowhere near as pressure-packed an outing as his debut against Florida was, and he fared pretty well before hurting his wrist in that one. His limited appearances since the South Carolina loss have been in runaway time or as a QB sneak specialist (he’s still arguably UK’s best option in fourth-and-1 scenarios) — what’s he capable of against a Power Five program in front of a national TV audience?
Breakout candidates
Three (relatively) unknown names who could make a statement in UK’s final showcase of the 2019 season ...
Clevan Thomas, wide receiver (5-11, 209): Thomas has the distinction of being one of just six UK players to catch a touchdown this season. One of them is Bowden, and another is Ahmad Wagner, a 6-5 senior who will look to make an NFL roster this offseason. Thomas started six of UK’s final seven regular-season games, including the last three, and is one of only two receivers who’s caught a TD from Bowden (junior Josh Ali is the other). Thomas is as personable as they come, too — he could quickly become a fan favorite next year in a more balanced offense.
J.J. Weaver, defensive end (6-5, 237): The former Moore High School star played against Missouri, Vanderbilt and Louisville — leaving him off the field against Tennessee and Tennessee-Martin was purposeful, as UK aimed to redshirt all its true freshmen and will get its wish with, in Weaver’s case, one more big game to see what he can achieve. The former four-star recruit was considered a top-15 player at his position in high school and has come up with six tackles (five unassisted) and two pass breakups.
Kenneth Horsey, left tackle (6-3, 321): A redshirt freshman who played in three games this season, including two of the last three, he’s likely only to get on the field in the event of a rout but he’s the immediate backup to Logan Stenberg, who’s gone after this season. Horsey had to have open-heart surgery to address an issue with his kidneys before coming to UK, so that he’s even still playing football is something of a miracle; he could blossom into a standout in the coming years.
Final score
Kentucky 28, Virginia Tech 17: Bud Foster, the Hokies’ defensive coordinator, won’t go down without a fight but Bowden and Co. will spoil the Somerset native’s final college football outing. Much like Louisville, Virginia Tech is at its best when it connects on big plays, and UK in its last outing proved it can handle that type of explosiveness. Virginia Tech won two of its three games against teams who allowed fewer total yards this season than Kentucky (it defeated Miami and Pittsburgh but lost, by a point, at Notre Dame), so points will need to go up for the defense to rest easy.
Belk Bowl
Kentucky vs. Virginia Tech
When: Noon Tuesday
Where: Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, N.C.
Records: UK 7-5; Virginia Tech 8-4
TV: ESPN
This story was originally published December 30, 2019 at 7:14 AM.
