UK-Georgia predictions: What must the Cats do to stop another unsightly streak?
It’s almost game time. Here are some final thoughts about Kentucky’s game against Georgia, and how it might play out Saturday at Kroger Field.
Georgia on the mind
There’s only one familiar dragon Mark Stoops hasn’t slayed at Kentucky, and it’ll try to set Kroger Field ablaze this weekend.
Georgia has won 10 straight over Kentucky, and seven consecutive games under Stoops-led squads. Only once under Stoops has Kentucky played the Bulldogs to within a single-digit margin of defeat (27-24 in 2016), and that was in Kirby Smart’s first season (the Bulldogs finished 8-5 that year, their worst finish so far under him). If it wins Saturday, Georgia will set a school record for consecutive wins over the Wildcats (its current streak matches a stretch of 10 straight wins from 1978 to 1987).
Kentucky’s rise from the cellar, unfortunately, has coincided with Georgia’s ascension to perennial national championship challenger, and it shows. The Bulldogs’ average margin of victory in seven meetings under Stoops is 26.4 points per game, though that has dropped to a decent margin (17.5 ppg) since Stoops got through a few seasons of cleaning house. Still, when the “best” way of messing with the numbers shows that you’re a three-score underdog, on average, it’s telling.
The Wildcats have come a long way recently, and toppled many streaks along the way, but this is the only one that bloomed on Stoops’ watch. It has to be more top of mind than the others.
Quarterback doubts
By now you’ve heard Stetson Bennett’s cool story: He was a walk-on at Georgia who went off to community college and earned himself a scholarship spot on the Bulldogs’ roster.
Bennett’s been solid in his first four games for Georgia, completing 57.3 percent of his passes for 958 yards and seven touchdowns with three interceptions. If Kentucky was getting that level of production from its quarterback position, the Wildcats probably would have a winning record; at Georgia, it’s been questionable enough to raise concerns about whether he should be the starter at Kentucky — where, from their fans’ point of view, a different guy could be thrown under center to get comfortable with the offense while probably not having the overall outcome impacted greatly.
UK, meanwhile, finds itself on the verge of inserting a first-time starter when it takes the field against the Bulldogs on Saturday. Terry Wilson did not participate in Kentucky’s practices this week due to a wrist injury suffered at Missouri, but even if he hadn’t been injured his job status would not have been certain heading into the week. Joey Gatewood against the Tigers played three drives, his first opportunities that didn’t come with the game well in hand, and will make his first career start on Saturday.
Kentucky probably won’t deviate too much from what it’s done with Wilson, but Gatewood having had the No. 1 reps throughout practice this week, you’d think, would enable the coaching staff to throw in some packages that make use of his hulking frame (6-4, 220 pounds) and the cannon attached to his right shoulder. A simpler approach on offense might be on display this weekend regardless of who’s out there, depending on what they demonstrated in practice this week.
“I want to make sure, us as a staff, we give him enough looks to make sure he’s comfortable of making that read (on options), and if not I’m taking it out,” co-offensive coordinator Eddie Gran said. “If we’re not making the decisions at the end of Wednesday, the game’s over. If I’ve got seven plays to call, I’m calling seven plays. But, by God, we’re gonna do it fast and we’re gonna do it well. It’s not gonna be sloppy and it’s not gonna be something where we can’t make a read.”
The fact of the matter is that Kentucky was going to have a tough task ahead of it regardless of who started. Georgia’s defense allows fewer yards per game than any other team in the Southeastern Conference at 318.5 and gives up only 65.5 on the ground. The Wildcats’ strengths lie closer to the turf, and if they can’t get anything going with their legs, things might need to be forced in the passing game against the better wishes of the offensive play-callers.
Dominant ‘D’
Kentucky’s offense could play its best game of 2020, but it’s going to need another stellar outing from the other side or else it will be for naught.
After a rough start, UK’s defense looked other-worldly against Mississippi State and Tennessee, masking a lack of ball movement in the bulk of those eight quarters. While there were impressive feats achieved in Columbia — allowing no points on a 21-play, nine-minute drive late in the third quarter — it was also on the field for 92 snaps, in part because it surrendered more third- and fourth-down conversions at Missouri (14 of 25) than it did in its prior two games combined (10 of 36). Some of that can be pinned on exhaustion, but some of it could be chalked up to poor execution.
Mistakes must be held to a minimum, if not completely removed from the picture, for Kentucky to contain Georgia; it’s not an explosive opponent, but it’ll look that way if the Cats stay on the field the way they did last week. In reality, Kentucky probably needs another turnover buffet to have a shot. Without nabbing six interceptions against Mississippi State and three more at Tennessee (plus a fumble), it’s now fair to wonder if Kentucky might be 0-5 heading into this battle.
“We know us getting turnovers, that creates a wave on the game,” defensive back Cedric Dort Jr. said. “It helps our offense get better field position. Us not getting off the field, that don’t help the offense. Starting the ball inside the 20, that’s hard for any offense in the SEC to be honest. Creating turnovers, it gets your team hype, it gets your defense hype. For everybody, it creates confidence.”
Final predictions
Georgia 27, Kentucky 6: Perhaps they’ll surprise us, but based on what we’ve observed over the first five games, it’s hard to see this UK offense — unless Joey Gatewood puts on his best Cam Newton impression (he’s oft-compared to the former No. 1 overall pick) — accomplishing a whole lot against this Georgia defense. This one probably doesn’t get out of hand, but it could be a long Halloween at Kroger Field.
The last word
Nose guard Marquan McCall on coping with being tired on extended drives:
“It’s important that you maintain focus and keep doing everything right, ‘cause that one play you feel like, ‘Oh, I’m tired’ or ‘I just need to take this play off,’ that could be a touchdown play for 60 yards, you know? You just gotta keep going and, s--t, get water when you can.”
Saturday
No. 5 Georgia at Kentucky
When: Noon
TV: SEC Network
Records: Kentucky 2-3, Georgia 3-1
Radio: WLAP-AM 630, WBUL-FM 98.1
Series: Georgia leads 59-12-2
Last meeting: Georgia won 21-0 on Oct. 19, 2019, in Athens, Ga.
