Vanderbilt at Kentucky predictions: Is this where a passing game finally thrives?
It’s almost game time. Here are some final thoughts about Kentucky’s game against Vanderbilt, and how it might play out Saturday at Kroger Field.
Quarterback play
Recent history suggests that Kentucky doesn’t need a lot from its passing game to overcome Vanderbilt. That doesn’t mean it should avoid efforts to create a rhythm that in six games before the bye week has mostly eluded it, particularly with Alabama and Florida on deck (unless COVID-19 intervenes).
In the last two meetings with Vanderbilt, four different Kentucky quarterbacks — Lynn Bowden, Sawyer Smith, Walker Wood and Terry Wilson — combined to throw for 147 yards and two touchdowns on 14-of-24 passing. Most of that was accumulated by Bowden, who had his best throwing day against the Commodores (8-for-10, 104 yards, one TD).
A game-tying touchdown throw in an eventual 14-7 win kept Wilson’s only encounter from being abysmal; he was 3-for-9 for 18 yards in 2018, but rushed for 91 yards to complement a big game by Benny Snell. Though both he and Joey Gatewood were separated by an “OR” at the No. 1 spot on this week’s depth chart, reading between the lines, it sounds like Wilson will return to the starting spot after one week on the sideline due to a wrist injury, giving him an opportunity for a better showing in 2020.
UK’s impotent passing game has been a bearer of criticism all year, and deservedly so — it ranks last in the SEC, by far, at 118 yards per game — but the inability to get much going in the quarterback run game has been eyebrow-raising, too. In his six losses as Kentucky’s starter, Wilson has averaged 29.8 yards rushing (it drops to 10 yards per game if you exclude the biggest outlier, this year’s 129-yard effort against Mississippi, also the only loss in which he’s rushed for any amount of touchdowns). In wins he averages 50.2 yards per game. It’s not a drastic difference, but it amounts to about two more first downs, something Kentucky certainly could use more of.
With two weeks to prepare and a lot of pride riding on this weekend, I suspect whoever’s under center to perform better than at any point this season.
Dogfight
Postponements due to COVID-19. Playing with the most minimum of players. Putting on their uniforms as a major underdog every week of the season.
Vanderbilt has dealt with a lot this season and isn’t going to be scared of a Kentucky team that’s still trying to sort out its quarterback situation in the home stretch. From the Commodores’ perspective, this is as winnable a game as they have left and they’ll be eager to snap a four-game losing streak in the series.
It’s coming off its best performance of the year. Vandy moved the ball readily against a Mississippi State defense that ranks among the league’s best (fourth in total defense entering the week), and was the latest team to hold Mike Leach’s offense in check well enough to be in a position to steal a win.
But, the Commodores are 0-5, even hungrier for a “W” than they were last week. They unexpectedly scored their only SEC win last season at a similar juncture — 21-14 over No. 22 Missouri after a 1-5 start — and should be as close to full strength, roster-wise, as they’ve been all year. They have a true freshman quarterback, Ken Seals, who’s thrown eight interceptions to only six touchdowns but could prove problematic if he’s able to get in a rhythm.
Vandy is playing with house money while UK is playing with the pressure of salvaging something of a lost season. If taken lightly, a long Saturday afternoon could be in store at Kroger Field.
Final predictions
Kentucky 24, Vanderbilt 10: The Wildcats should be able to impose their will in the trenches, but an effort to make things happen in the passing game keeps this one a little tighter than Vegas expects. If there’s a Kentucky blowout happening anywhere this year, it’s this weekend, and with two weeks to heal up it’s tempting to predict one, but with COVID-19 uncertainties abounding it’s best to stay conservative.
MVP: The offensive line. While the death of UK assistant John Schlarman will weigh heavily on the entire team, his unit may feel a stronger need to go out and win this one for their leader. They’ll meet the challenge with the same vigor Schlarman did his own.
The last word
Head coach Mark Stoops on how UK will handle taking the field so soon after the passing of Schlarman:
“One thing about John that everybody will tell you, is that he was here with a strong, positive attitude every day he could. And he essentially came in here and worked and coached until it was the bitter end for him. So we’re gonna honor him by doing what John would do. What would John want to do? John would pick up, and he’d come to work, and he’d put a smile on his face even when he was struggling. He would work, and the best way we can honor him is to go out there and play the very best we can. I know I want to coach as if John was with me, standing next to me, and if I can be a window through his eyes and for him to see the game through my eyes, it would be an honor. Our players need to think of it the same way; just envision him being there with us, watching us.”
Saturday
Vanderbilt at Kentucky
When: Noon
TV: SEC Network
Records: Kentucky 2-4, Vanderbilt 0-5
Radio: WLAP-AM 630, WBUL-FM 98.1
Series: Kentucky leads 46-42-4
Last meeting: Kentucky won 38-14 on Nov. 16, 2019, at Vanderbilt.
This story was originally published November 13, 2020 at 8:03 AM.
