Kentucky football predictions: Cats will create, avoid turnovers against Chattanooga
It’s almost football time in the Bluegrass! Here are some final thoughts and predictions about how Kentucky’s matchup with Chattanooga might play out at Kroger Field on Saturday.
Secondary showdown
Much has been made of the experience UK brought back on its defense — the Wildcats in their first two games started 10 seniors, all but one (Ole Miss transfer Jacquez Jones) who’d played major snaps for UK prior to this season — but Chattanooga makes that look paltry. The Mocs brought back 72 of their team’s 76 lettermen from a year ago, including 14 players who are in the midst of either their sixth or seventh year playing college football. Chattanooga might lack the raw talent of a Power Five program, but it has grown, experienced men for days.
Three of the six-year players — Jordan Jones, Jerrell Lawson and Rashun Freeman — are in the defensive backfield, which also includes two fifth-year guys in Brandon Dowdell and D.J. Jackson. Dowdell has three interceptions already on the year, and Lawson has also come up with a pick.
Louisiana Monroe didn’t demand much of them, but the play of UK’s corners against Missouri was underwhelming. Carrington Valentine has shown a lot of promise, and had the pass break-up to end the Tigers’ rally, but Tyler Badie and Daniel Parker frequently got the better of the true sophomore last Saturday. Cedric Dort, a senior, didn’t fare much better against the Tigers. UK’s safeties have been solid, but that sub-group could be in some trouble if Davonte Robinson’s minor injury becomes something more than that. It’s clear that the absence of Andru Phillips and Vito Tisdale due to an ongoing legal matter has had a sizable impact on the Cats’ depth.
Defensive back Quandre Mosely has worn a cast in UK’s first two games after breaking his wrist over the summer. The backup corner to both Dort and Valentine will have to wear it at least a couple more weeks, but is getting healthier day by day.
“It’s more difficult (playing with a cast), ‘cause when I catch the ball it flies up in the air and everything,” Mosely said. “At first I couldn’t move my thumb in it, but now I got mobility so I can actually grip the ball a little bit. It’s getting better, slowly.”
Chattanooga threw the ball 26 and 22 times in its first two games, with four interceptions and one touchdown pass to show for its troubles. The Mocs started a different quarterback in each of their games — Cole Copeland made his first start since his freshman year in Chattanooga’s 20-0 win over North Alabama — so that could create some game-planning dilemmas for Brad White. The Mocs will lean heavy on their run game (White likes all of their running backs), so a lot of onus will be on UK’s defensive line to make some big plays now so it can be more ready for a slate of run-heavy SEC foes coming down the pike.
“We want to get turnovers, we want to get that ball,” defensive end Josh Paschal said. “We gotta stop the run this week. That’s something that we want to do and need to do, but we also want to get turnovers. We’ve only had one so far, and so we’re trying to get ball hungry.”
Ball security
Kentucky showed off its new passing attack in its opener and leaned on its run game in week two. Both have been effective, but both have also shown sloppiness with the ball.
For the receivers, hot passes from Will Levis — pointed to by offensive coordinator Liam Coen as the ultimate culprit in those exchanges — have deflected off their hands and into those of opposing defensive backs in each of the two weeks. It happened on the same play, to boot, albeit with different targets and on different sides of the field; Josh Ali to Levis’ right in game one and Izayah Cummings to his left in game two. Coen says that play’s not going anywhere — “He was wide open both times” — but that Levis needs to take a “just a little bit” of heat off those throws.
“That’s something that we gotta continue to work on with Will,” Coen said. “Because he’s so live with his arm, there are times that you need to take something off it. But the problem is, when you need to make a tight-window throw or a fast reaction, your arm speeds up. And when his arm speeds up, the dang thing really speeds up.”
Chris Rodriguez, who leads the SEC in rushing through two games, fumbled twice near the goal line last week. He lost the first but the second was recovered for a touchdown, which two days later was credited to offensive guard Eli Cox. Kavosiey Smoke, Rodriguez’s primary backup, fumbled once against ULM but came back with eight clean carries versus Missouri.
“Coming into this game, we ain’t going to lose the ball at all,” Smoke said. “I can promise you that.”
Rodriguez has become Kentucky’s bell cow and more decorated star, but he and Smoke were part of the same signing class in 2018. The two have built a strong bond over the years, off and on the field. If everything’s firing on all cylinders in the latter area, it gives the Wildcats a tandem that can go toe-to-toe with any defense in the country.
They just have to keep each other in check, especially when mistakes are made.
“Me and Chris have always been like that, just trying to pick each other up when we feel down,” Smoke said. “Never hold your head down because you’ve got brothers that are gonna pick you up and we got somebody that’s gonna back you up. We’re always gonna back each other up, from start to finish.”
Final predictions
Kentucky 56, Chattanooga 10: The Wildcats’ final leg of a three-game home stand to start the 2021 season ends with their largest win of the season. Coen this week talked up Chattanooga’s defense, and the Mocs boast an impressive resume in that department, especially for their level, but UK is far more explosive than anything that Rusty Wright’s group has seen this year. Less-robust offenses during Mark Stoops’ tenure have hung 50 points on FCS foes; it doesn’t feel like too big of an ask for this group to show up and do it in this first-time meeting. Earlier upsets of FBS teams by FCS foes this season should have the Wildcats on higher alert, even coming off a more emotionally charged game than this one figures to be. An early rout would prompt healthy looks from second- and third-string players, and could result in a half-dollar total coming off the table, but there’s nothing wrong with dreaming big this weekend.
MVP: Wan’Dale Robinson, who records the first 200-yard receiving game by a Kentucky player since Craig Yeast did it twice in 1998. Yeast racked up 206 yards on six receptions against Florida that year before breaking his own single-game record against Vanderbilt with 269 yards on 16 catches.
Good gamble: The total over/under for this game is 48.5 points. I think UK can hit the over by itself as long as it plays a clean football game. Pound it.
The last word
Kentucky’s offense is helping out the defense a lot more in 2021 than it has done recently. It’s improved the mood on the sidelines. Said cornerback Carrington Valentine:
“It gives us a spark. Like, ‘OK, the offense just scored, the offense just got a first down.’ Basically we try to one-up the offense. It’s like a game with each other, to me.”
