LSU at UK predictions: Getting and stopping big plays will take Wildcats to 6-0
It’s almost football time in the Bluegrass! Here are some final thoughts and predictions about how the University of Kentucky’s game against LSU might play out at Kroger Field on Saturday night.
Wideout woes
It’s imperative — not just for a positive result this week, but with a spotlight battle at Georgia next Saturday — that Kentucky regain its footing on offense against an LSU secondary missing two of its most significant pieces in Derek Stingley, a cornerback projected as a first-round draftee, and Major Burns, a terrifically named safety who transferred from Georgia in the offseason.
Through five games, UK is averaging 6.5 yards per play, which is a few ticks higher than where it was with wide receiver Lynn Bowden running the run-only show in 2019 (6.2 yards per play) and more than a full yard better than last year’s mark (5.2). That number has dipped a bit in SEC play (5.88), but generally the Wildcats have been moving the ball well when they’re connecting; between fumbles and missed connections lately on third down, however, drives are stalling more than not and the play total is dwindling. Kentucky’s average of 61.6 plays per game ranks last in the league; nearest to it is South Carolina at 62.6. Even just a couple more third-down conversions a game would help nudge that number closer to the middle of the pack. As it stands, the play total is holding Kentucky’s offensive production back as much as any stat on the board.
It’s unfortunate that Josh Ali won’t be available against a talented but beleaguered secondary; LSU has surrendered 371 (Mississippi State) and 290 (Auburn) passing yards in its last two games. Outside of Wan’Dale Robinson, Ali is UK’s closest thing to a “sure thing” at receiver; he’s the only player at that position other than Robinson who has brought down a catch in the last two games. Isaiah Epps has eight targets on the year and is tied for third on the team with five receptions, matching tight ends Brenden Bates and Justin Rigg, and running back Chris Rodriguez.
Tae Tae Crumes, who’s listed as Ali’s backup, is healthy but hasn’t gotten on the field since the Missouri game. True freshman Chauncey Magwood has played in four games but hasn’t yet been targeted; his next game played will result in the loss of a redshirt. DeMarcus Harris was among UK’s leading returnees at the position but has just two catches this season. He was the intended target on a third-and-9 pass on UK’s first drive of the third quarter.
“Obviously we wanna try to spread the ball around and get guys included and involved, but we also gotta make sure they’re in the right spots, and open, and can win versus man coverage,” offensive coordinator Liam Coen said. “There’s a reason why Wan gets a lot of touches, because he does a lot of those things.”
X-factors
Immediate help in the receiving department is more likely to come by way of other position groups than at receiver. Sophomore JuTahn McClain is a possible “X-factor” who isn’t getting a lot of attention heading into this matchup; Saturday was his first live game back after several weeks away from the team due to a legal matter. His versatility as a play-maker was expected to get him on the field this season prior to the off-the-field disruption.
“It’s certainly upped it,” running backs coach John Settle said of his position’s competition since McClain returned. “They understand that JuTahn has a talent and an ability to help us win ball games. If there’s something that he can do to help us win this game, all the guys are on board to have him do that.”
McClain was inches shy of breaking off for a first down on a play against Florida last Saturday that instead ended in a 4-yard loss. It wasn’t due to his movement after making a catch behind the line of the scrimmage that caused UK to go backward, but his effort selling a block earlier in the play. If he’d held on for a half-second longer, it might’ve made a world of difference.
“It was very close,” Settle said. “Last week was his first week back. ... Things will slow down for him, he won’t be rushing things. That’s what it’s all about, him adjusting to the speed of the game. Practice is fast, but we all know a game is fast.”
Settle believes that quarterback Will Levis and his position group will be on the same page more this week. Levis against Florida twice tried to deal the ball to Kavosiey Smoke for what could have been substantial gains, but the pair didn’t connect.
Levis attributed most of his accuracy issues against Florida — he was 6-for-15 for 74 yards, with a touchdown and an interception — to inconsistencies between his speed in practice and games. When Mark Stoops brings up Levis being “amped up,” this seems to be what he’s getting at.
“When I get to games sometimes, I speed it up,” Levis said. “The defense flies around a little bit more in a game than they do in practice and I just get too quick with my footwork. I get a little antsy. I just need to get more settled in and trust my slower footwork, and trust slight pocket movements and not over move in the pocket. ... The more reps I get the more those downfield concepts are gonna start connecting.”
A contender to help Levis out on those downfield concepts in the coming weeks: tight end Izayah Cummings. Kentucky should frequently be in 12-personnel sets on Saturday, but it’s possible that Cummings could find himself more or less playing wide receiver again with Ali sidelined. He’s one of the Wildcats’ most exciting prospects as a ball-catcher and Coen wants to get him more involved.
Contain the run
LSU, like Kentucky, entered this season with hopes of balancing its offense, albeit more toward the run than with the pass. It has failed, utterly.
The Tigers averaged 36.5 rushing attempts per game last year; through five games this year they’re averaging 27.4 and have only once rushed for 100 or more yards — against McNeese State, an FCS school (that’s where former UK quarterback Walker Wood plays now, by the way). They’re averaging just 70.8 yards per game on the ground, second-worst in the league after Mississippi State, which puts them on track to be the first LSU team to finish with an average below 100 yards since 1999. That team was the first to do that since 1938.
LSU’s inability to get things going in the ground game has them near the bottom of the league in total offense despite having one of its most potent passing attacks. The Tigers rank 12th overall with an average of 373.8 yards per game, ahead of South Carolina and Vanderbilt, but fourth in passing (303 YPG). They’ll probably be able to match their average against a UK defense that’s been solid, but not stingy, against opposing quarterbacks. Max Johnson will be the best passer Kentucky has faced since Missouri’s Connor Bazelak, who was 34-of-52 on his way to four touchdown passes and 294 yards about a month ago.
Any numbers Johnson puts up might be trivial, though, if LSU is stuffed on the ground again and UK can limit big plays. It might be a little tougher for the Cats to achieve the former with two sophomore reserves, Josaih Hayes and Justin Rogers, rotating in the middle of the defensive line, but they played well in relief of Marquan McCall a week ago.
“We try to tell every backup to prepare like you’re the starter,” defensive coordinator Brad White said. “That’s got to be the mindset. But when you know going in that you’re gonna be called upon, you probably do prepare a little bit more. You maybe have a few more butterflies or nerves, but I think they don’t need to do more than they did last week. They just have to do their assignment, focus on the technique that Coach (Anwar) Stewart has taught them, and just play. Don’t let the moment get too big.”
Final predictions
Kentucky 24, LSU 17: This is unfamiliar territory for Kentucky, which is favored against a much bigger brand in the SEC. The Tigers have more raw talent on their roster than Kentucky but haven’t quite put together a game that’s made observers — their fans, especially — believe they’re close to realizing their potential. Kentucky has had its own struggles, but has much more of an identity than the Tigers; UK, at a minimum, will show up, play physically and defend its tail off. If it can limit the big plays — and with Kayshon Boutte lining up on the other side, that’s no given — then Kentucky ought to be 6-0 going into a showdown at Georgia.
MVP: Will Levis. After a below-average effort against Florida, Levis comes out and deals two touchdown passes and runs for another against the Tigers.
Good gamble: If you really want to get into the weeds, betting the first score of the game (by either team) to be anything but a touchdown is an interesting way to go (+197). LSU kicker Cade York was a Second Team All-America selection last year and is 8-for-8 on field-goal tries this season, including three from 50-plus yards. Kentucky kicker Matt Ruffolo is 4--of-5 this season and perfect on tries between 40 and 49 yards (his long this year is 45).
The last word
Sophomore defensive lineman Justin Rogers on the work ethic of senior defensive end Josh Paschal:
“That man’s superman, for real. How he plays the game, how he studies for the game, mental-wise, he’s just different. That’s all I can say. It’s hard to explain Josh. When you want to watch some real football, watch him.”
