Kentucky at Vanderbilt predictions: Commodores again could be the fix UK needs
It’s almost football time in ... Nashville. Here are some final thoughts and predictions about how the Kentucky Wildcats’ game might play out at Vanderbilt Stadium on Saturday night.
Gas pedal
Amid a hellish defensive effort, Kentucky displayed a level of offensive preparedness more than good enough to win any football game, let alone one against a Tennessee team coming off consecutive losses. Alas, 42 points wasn’t the right number last Saturday.
If Kentucky can come anywhere close to matching that effort at Vanderbilt, it should cruise to win No. 7 and head back home with a winning Southeastern Conference record for the second time under Mark Stoops. Meeting that challenge shouldn’t be too difficult; the Commodores rank 118th (of 130 FBS teams) in points allowed per game at 35.6 and 121st in total yards allowed each time out (464).
Believe it or not, one SEC team — Missouri — is actually worse than Vanderbilt in both categories, but the Tigers at least have a top-50 offense to make up for some of their woes on the other side. Vandy lacks that luxury; it’s ahead of only New Mexico and Southern Miss, among all FBS teams, scoring 14.9 points per game, and is one of three Power Five programs (along with Colorado and Iowa) in the bottom 10 nationally in total yardage per game (301.2). The Commodores didn’t get to 2-7 by accident.
UK needs to come out with a “crush-their-spirit” mentality from the jump in Nashville. I thought Stoops should have taken the ball first against Tennessee, and if the option presents itself, he should do the same against the Commodores. Put a touchdown on the board in the first three minutes and don’t let the notion of an upset linger beyond the lead-up to kickoff.
“As far as team morale and where we’re at, things of that nature, I’m very optimistic,” Stoops said this week. “I know our team, I know our leaders, I’ve seen a lot of them, I’ve talked to a lot of them after the game. They’re highly motivated to finish the season so we got to get back on track.”
Antidote
UK was a much different team the last time it traveled to Vanderbilt. Running back Chris Rodriguez was on it, though, and had 129 yards and two touchdowns in a game that saw the Wildcats rush for 402 yards in a 38-14 win.
That result followed a tightly contested loss to the Volunteers that, like last Saturday, ended after UK failed to score on its final possession. Kentucky won its last four games that season, a streak that this edition could match; it starts by extending its win streak over Vanderbilt to six games. None of Stoops’ bowl-eligible teams have lost to the Commodores, who during that stretch have been a cure for Kentucky’s ills; UK since starting its win streak in 2016 was coming off at least one loss when it played Vanderbilt.
If history repeats itself, there’s no quicker way for UK to “get right” than by playing Vanderbilt. For the defense, in particular, a common theme in its last two defeats — missed tackles — can’t be present Saturday. The Commodores aren’t going to present as many problems in space as Mississippi State and Tennessee did, and maybe a few mistakes against them won’t cost you as dearly as they did the last two weeks, but the Cats need to get in as many hits as possible this week to shape themselves back into form.
“We take it very personally,” safety Yusuf Corker said. “The last two games we didn’t play up to our standard, but right now that’s in the past. We’re focused on Vanderbilt and trying to improve on what we need to do: making interceptions, making plays and making turnovers.”
Keep running
UK would also be well-served by another triple-digit rushing effort by Rodriguez, who last Saturday hit the century mark for the fifth time this season. He would need to do that in each of UK’s final four games to top Artose Pinner’s record for the most 100-yard rushing games in a single season.
Spectators debated in the moment and afterward whether Rodriguez should have been involved more in the final series against Tennessee. Kentucky threw or attempted to throw the ball on 10 of its final 13 plays, including the last seven; an early target went to the vicinity of Rodriguez, who early in the drive carried three times for a total of 11 yards. Stoops and offensive coordinator Liam Coen after the game offered differing views of how that situation played out: Stoops thought UK could have leaned on Rodriguez more while Coen indicated that, since UK was trying to win the game and not get a field goal, there was no second-guessing to be done regarding the run game.
After some good runs, Kavosiey Smoke’s effectiveness was hampered Saturday after taking some licks. Some fans wondered if Rodriguez wasn’t running at the end because of injury, too. He disputed that.
“I was available,” Rodriguez said this week. “I came to the sideline to get some water or something but it wasn’t like I was unable to get back on the field. I’m 100 percent right now.”
The Cats’ blocking left a lot to be desired against Tennessee. Levis was sacked three times and open running lanes were few and far between for Rodriguez, who averaged 4 yards after contact per rush. For as effectively as the offense operated overall Saturday — its 6.2 yards per play was the best output since the win over LSU (7.7) — it could have been even more productive. With right guard Eli Cox out for the season, there will be more onus on stalwarts like Luke Fortner and Darian Kinnard to perform to near perfection moving forward; the latter, seldom a mistake maker, was flagged twice for false starts against Tennessee.
Guys off the line must become more aware, too.
“We fell short from a number of different places in terms of the protection,” Coen said. “ ... We need to help the offensive line. We have other people that are involved in protection, whether it’s the running back or the quarterback understanding where the pressure’s coming from and how to react to that. I would not put it all on those guys up front.”
Final predictions
Kentucky 45, Vanderbilt 17: Perhaps I’m overly bullish, but with nose tackle Marquan McCall expected to return and UK coming off one of its best offensive performances of the Stoops era, I think the stars align for Kentucky to look closer to the team it looked like during its 6-0 start. And that team should be more than capable of sending Vandy fans to bed early Saturday night.
MVP: Chris Rodriguez. He comes back to Lexington with another 100-yard, two-touchdown Nashville performance under his belt.
Good gamble: You can bet Kentucky to score over 7.5 points in the first quarter at plus-130. Seems like easy money, to me.
The last word
Defensive lineman Justin Rogers has taken on a greater role during Marquan McCall’s absence. The sophomore spoke this week about what having the senior out there does for UK’s ball-stoppers.
“Having him out there, it’s something different. You can feel the difference on the team. He keeps everybody’s spirit alive.”
