Citrus Bowl predictions: Can Kentucky pile on Iowa after the Hawkeyes’ Big Ten letdown?

It’s almost football time in ... Orlando, Fla.! Here are some final thoughts and predictions ahead of Kentucky’s New Year’s Day showdown against Iowa in the VRBO Citrus Bowl, its last game of the 2021 season.

QB(s) battle

Last week, Iowa head coach Kirk Ferentz declined to officially name a starting quarterback for the Citrus Bowl.

Spencer Petras, who started 10 of the Hawkeyes’ games — including its abysmal showing against Michigan in the Big Ten championship — was listed No. 1 on the depth chart and was taking first-team reps in practice this week. Backup Alex Padilla, who won three straight starts in relief of an injured Petras before his return for the Big Ten title bout, has accounted for 30 percent of Iowa’s passing attempts and 27.5 percent of its passing yardage. He’s played in nine games to Petras’ 11, and is a sophomore to Petras’ junior.

Ferentz has said he’d like for both players to be on Iowa’s roster next season for a competition to decide a formal starter. Good luck with that; chances are this bowl will be the last game in a Hawkeyes uniform for one of the two, based on the transfer climate in college football.

That wrinkle could prove consequential for Kentucky. If there’s heightened pressure on the starter — presumably Petras — to perform on a stage like Saturday’s, perhaps he’ll play more hurriedly, making it easier for the Wildcats to do something they’ve done little of this season: create turnovers.

UK’s defense came away with six interceptions in 12 games, the fewest among all 14 Southeastern Conference teams and in the bottom 30 of all 130 FBS programs. Iowa, conversely, led the country with 24 interceptions. Will Levis averaged an interception per game — or one per every 27 passing attempts — but had just three over the Cats’ final four games (an average of one per every 40 passing attempts). Even if Kentucky is unable to capitalize against a quarterback who might be looking over his shoulder, it’d be in good shape if Levis makes decisions like he did over the final month of the season.

“They don’t give you anything easy,” UK offensive coordinator Liam Coen said. “They’re extremely physical up front, and the biggest thing about this defense is their strain and effort is through the roof. ... This is truly going to be about our execution. We’ll know what they’ll be in a lot of the time, but they do a good job disguising some coverages to match what they do. They tackle extremely well. This is going to be a game about our guys going out and making plays, being special with the ball in their hands. We need to strain and finish better than we have all season.”

Levis will be without one of his top weapons in Josh Ali. The Cats’ second-leading wide receiver is out due to an injury suffered during a car accident in Georgia this month. With Isaiah Epps sidelined as a result of the same incident, expect UK to rely more heavily on Wan’Dale Robinson, if it can, and Demarcus Harris, a sophomore who showed promise down the stretch. Tight end Izayah Cummings should have his number called more often, and the same could be said of true freshmen Chauncey Magwood and Chris Lewis.

UK’s QB-1 has played against Iowa before. He had his most efficient game as a passer against the Hawkeyes in his final season at Penn State, going 13-of-16 for 106 yards in a 41-21 loss. He also rushed for 34 yards on 15 carries in that game. Levis appears to be a much different quarterback now than he was in that matchup.

“What I have improved in most is the comfort aspect of the position,” Levis said this week. “Like Coach (Coen) said, that really just comes with reps, and that really comes with seeing different looks in a variety of different ways. The more looks you see and the more reps you get, the more comfortable you’re going to be.”

Ball control

Levis will have the advantage of seeing his top backfield mate — Chris Rodriguez — actually back there opposed to whoever’s under center for Iowa; Tyler Goodson, the Hawkeyes’ leading rusher, opted out of the game weeks ago to focus on the NFL Draft.

This matchup pits two of the stingiest rushing defenses in the country against each other. Iowa was second in the Big Ten and 13th nationally allowing 113.8 rushing yards per game. Kentucky ranked third in the SEC and No. 16 in the country in that category at 117.9 yards. How things pan out in the trenches often dictates the outcome for UK, and this will be no exception.

The top blocker for reserve rushers Gavin Williams (207 yards on 40 carries) and Ivory Kelly-Martin (190 yards and a TD on 44 carries) is Tyler Linderbaum, a probable top-10 draft pick and the winner of this year’s Rimington Trophy, given to the country’s top center. Luke Fortner, UK’s center, said both teams’ offensive lines will enter this one with something to prove.

“I’ve watched their offensive line quite a bit and they play hard, they’re a hard-nosed unit,” Fortner said. “ ... Their defense has done really well at defending against the run this year, and they haven’t given up many points in each of their games.”

Defensive end Josh Paschal was observed going through drills in practice on Wednesday but Stoops deemed his availability for Saturday as “highly questionable” on Friday morning. He leads UK in tackles for loss (15.5) and quarterback hurries (eight), and is one of the most versatile players in the Wildcats’ defensive rotation. He suffered a leg injury during the Louisville game and was on crutches following that win; he was uncertain about his availability for the Citrus Bowl during his last media availability on Dec. 10.

Paschal’s absence, or limited ability to play significant snaps, would make it harder for the Wildcats to get pressure against a stout Iowa front, even one blocking for formerly part-time rushers and a quarterback who might not have 100 percent confidence from his head coach. UK had 77 tackles for loss (38th nationally) and 55 sacks (55th nationally) with Paschal anchoring the end. Unless it sees something it can exploit against the Hawkeyes’ offense, it’s tough to see that area of the defense looking better than it did in the regular season without him on the field.

Iowa’s offense is more “old school” than the spread- and spread-inspired types that UK often sees these days, which creates another set of challenges.

“This one is sort of challenging your pride,” UK defensive coordinator Brad White said. “They are not hiding anything. They are coming downhill. They are going to put their pads on you, and they are going to try to drive you off the football. If they are gaining yards, it means that they are physically more dominant than you. So it’s a sense of pride for our front. It’s going to be a sense of pride for our back end when they have to come and fill, and they have to tackle these big backs coming downhill. We have to impose our will and our physicality, and it’s something that we’ve been able to do over the years. We’ve been able to do it this year, at times, and we need to show up and do it again.”

Final predictions

Kentucky 31, Iowa 14: Perhaps I had too much eggnog over the holidays, but if both teams maximize their potential after a month to prepare, I think UK should be able to come through with another historic bowl win without too much drama. It’ll arguably have four of the game’s top five offensive players on the field — Darian Kinnard, Will Levis, Wan’Dale Robinson and Chris Rodriguez — and the Cats have played well enough defensively to feel good about their ability to stop a spotty Hawkeyes offense, even though Paschal is questionable for Saturday. If errors pile up, ignore all of the above.

MVP: Wan’Dale Robinson, in what I’m predicting will be his final game was a Wildcat, goes out in a blaze of glory. He records double-digit receptions for 100-plus yards and two touchdowns.

Good gamble: In its three losses, Iowa failed to reach 10 points. Here’s a same-game parlay (via DraftKings) with that in mind: Over 44.5 points combined plus under 14.5 points for Iowa’s total points in the game. If you’re rooting for a UK blowout, why not do it with a plus-1300 return on the line?

The last word

Nose guard Marquan McCall has a fun-loving, hype-heavy demeanor. He makes an exception for one thing he was asked about this week in the land of Disney World.

“I’m not a big roller-coaster fan. I feel like that’s not a safe place for me, you know what I’m saying?”

This story was originally published December 31, 2021 at 6:00 AM.

Josh Moore

Lexington Herald-Leader

Josh Moore covers the University of Kentucky football team for the Lexington Herald-Leader, where he’s been employed since 2009. Moore, a Martin County native, graduated from UK with a B.A. in Integrated Strategic Communication and English in 2013. He’s a fan of the NBA, Power Rangers and Pokémon. Support my work with a digital subscription