How Kentucky and Iowa match up in the Citrus Bowl — with a game prediction

How the No. 22 Kentucky Wildcats (9-3, 5-3 SEC) and the No. 15 Iowa Hawkeyes (10-3, 7-3 Big Ten) match up at each position — with a game prediction:

Quarterbacks

▪ Kentucky’s Will Levis (66.5% passing, 2,593 yards, 23 TDs vs. 12 interceptions; 387 yards rushing, nine TDs) has had a quality first season as UK starting QB. The Penn State transfer made one of his two career starts for the Nittany Lions last season against Iowa. Levis completed 13 of 16 passes for 106 yards and ran 15 times for a net minus-34 yards vs. the Hawkeyes. He was pulled with Iowa leading PSU 24-7 in a game the Hawkeyes won 41-21. Against a defense that thrives on takeaways, the sometimes-turnover-prone Levis needs to play a clean game.

▪ Iowa starter Spencer Petras has completed 58.1% of his passes for 1,532 yards with nine TDs vs. six picks. The 6-foot-5, 233-pound Californian is not mobile — he’s run for minus-99 net yards this season albeit with five rushing TDs. Petras left Iowa’s 42-3 blowout loss to Michigan in the Big Ten championship game with a torso injury. Backup Alex Padilla (46.4% completions, 598 passing yards, two TDs, one pick) is considered a more mobile option.

Advantage: Kentucky.

Running backs

▪ Kentucky star Christopher Rodriguez (1,238 yards rushing, 6.3 yards per carry, eight TDs) ran for 121 yards and a TD in UK’s 52-21 pasting of archrival Louisville in the regular-season finale. The 5-11, 224-pound redshirt junior ran for 84 yards and two scores in the Wildcats’ 23-21 upset of No. 23 North Carolina State in last season’s TaxSlayer Gator Bowl. Change-of-pace back Kavosiey Smoke (416, 5.1, four) carried eight times for 31 yards and a TD vs. U of L.

▪ Iowa leading rusher Tyler Goodson (1,101 rushing yards, 4.6 ypc, six TDs; 25 receptions, 219 yards, one TD) opted out of the Citrus Bowl, depriving the Hawkeyes of their primary offensive weapon. As a result, Iowa is likely to deploy as many as three different backs. Ivory Kelly-Martin (190 yards, 4.3 ypc, one TD) is first on the depth chart, with Gavin Williams (151, 4.1) and Leshon Williams (27, 2.5) bracketed at No. 2.

Advantage: Kentucky.

Wide receivers

▪ Kentucky junior slot receiver Wan’Dale Robinson has produced an epic season after transferring home from Nebraska. The 5-10, 183-pound Western Hills High School graduate has set a UK single-season receptions record with 94. Robinson also has 1,164 receiving yards and seven TDs. However, Kentucky will be without its No. 2 receiver, Josh Ali (41 catches, 601 yards, three TDs) as well as fellow senior Isaiah Epps (11, 171, one) due to injuries suffered in a car accident. Redshirt sophomore DeMarcus Harris (10, 122, one) and true freshman Chauncey Magwood (one catch for 17 yards; one completed pass thrown for 15 yards) will be asked to step up.

▪ Iowa did not get an abundance of production from its wideouts in 2021. The Hawkeyes are hopeful, however, that freshmen Arland Bruce and Keagan Johnson will develop into playmakers. Bruce, a 5-10, 193-pound product of Olathe, Kan., has 19 catches for 175 yards and a TD. Johnson, a 6-1, 197-pound product of Bellevue, Neb., has 17 catches for 339 yards and two touchdowns. Junior Nico Ragaini (26, 331, one) and senior Charlie Jones (19, 282, three) are also in the rotation.

Advantage: Kentucky.

Tight ends

▪ Kentucky has gotten a solid season from its primary tight ends — super-senior Justin Rigg (18 catches, 178 yards, four TDs); sophomore Izayah Cummings (13, 182, three); and junior Brenden Bates (10, 64, one). With injuries thinning out the UK wide receiving corps, the tight ends may be a larger part of the game plan in the Citrus Bowl.

▪ With Tyler Goodson choosing not to play, Iowa’s Sam LaPorta is the most proven playmaker the Hawkeyes will bring to Orlando. LaPorta was the offensive bright spot in the Big Ten championship game loss to Michigan, hauling in a team-high six passes for 62 yards. On the season, the 6-4, 249-pound junior is Iowa’s leading receiver (46 catches, 548 yards, two TDs) by a wide margin.

Advantage: Iowa.

Offensive linemen

▪ UK right tackle Darian Kinnard has reaped a bounty of postseason recognition. The 6-5, 338-pound senior was voted First Team AP All-America en route to becoming a consensus All-America selection. Kinnard was also named the winner of the SEC’s Jacobs Blocking Trophy, signifying the best offensive lineman in the SEC. Against an Iowa rush defense that ranks 13th in the FBS (allowing 113.8 yards a game), UK needs a stout showing from “The Big Blue Wall.”

▪ Iowa redshirt junior center Tyler Linderbaum has also been receiving ample postseason acclaim. The 6-3, 290-pound product of Solon, Iowa, won the Rimingtown Award, signifying the nation’s top center. He, too, was chosen First Team AP All-America and is a consensus All-America choice. Though Linderbaum has not announced his 2022 NFL Draft intentions, he is presumed to be a first-round selection should he enter.

Advantage: Kentucky.

Defensive linemen

▪ Kentucky senior nose guard Marquan McCall (3.5 tackles for loss, two quarterback hurries) will face the formidable challenge of going against Iowa star center Tyler Linderbaum (see above). That is also a big opportunity for McCall to juice his own NFL Draft standing with a big showing. Star senior end Josh Paschal (53 tackles, 15.5 TFL, 5.5 sacks, 8 QB hurries, one forced fumble) left the Louisville game with an apparent lower-body injury. His playing status for the Citrus Bowl is one of the game’s big keys.

▪ After transferring from NCAA Division II Hillsdale College, Iowa right end Zack VanValkenburg has become a force. The 6-4, 267-pound senior leads the Hawkeyes with 11.5 TFL and 8 QB hurries. He also has 3.5 sacks. Once a walk-on linebacker, left end Joe Evans is tied for the team lead with six sacks.

Advantage: Even.

Linebackers

▪ Kentucky’s veteran LB corps has been solid. Senior WLB DeAndre Square is second on the team with 74 tackles, and also has nine TFL, three sacks and three QB hurries. Senior MLB Jacquez Jones, a transfer from Mississippi, leads the Cats with 86 tackles and has had at least 3 game-altering plays in pass coverage (four pass breakups, one interception). OLB/rush end Jordan Wright, another senior, battled injuries this season but has five pass breakups and three TFL in eight games.

▪ Iowa’s Jack Campbell is one of the best MLBs in the country. A homegrown 6-5, 243-pound junior from Cedar Falls, Iowa, Campbell has 124 tackles, six pass breakups, five QB hurries, 3.5 TFL and has scored TDs by both fumble recovery and pass interception. Hybrid LB/S Dane Belton has a nose for the football. The 6-1, 205-pound Floridian (Tampa) has made 41 tackles, picked off five passes and broken up seven.

Advantage: Iowa.

Defensive backs

▪ Kentucky senior free safety Yusuf Corker (73 tackles, 3.5 TFL, eight pass breakups) had an interception in UK’s Gator Bowl victory last season. In the regular-season-ending win over Louisville, sophomore CB Carrington Valentine was credited with seven tackles and a pass defended.

▪ Named the Big Ten Defensive Back of the Year, Iowa cornerback Riley Moss (36 tackles, two TFL, four interceptions, two pick-sixes, five passes defended) leads a ball-hawking Hawkeyes secondary. Iowa is first in the FBS in interceptions (24). Starting cornerback Matt Hankins (44 tackles, three interceptions, five passes defended) has missed the past three games and is not expected to play in Orlando. His replacement, Jermari Harris (28 tackles, three picks), had the game-clinching interception in the Hawkeyes’ come-from-behind win at Nebraska that put Iowa into the Big Ten championship game.

Advantage: Iowa.

Special teams

▪ Kentucky senior punter Colin Goodfellow has averaged 46 yards a kick. Of his 31 punts, he has pinned 11 inside the opponents’ 20-yard line. Place-kicker Matt Ruffolo is 8-of-11 on field goals, with a long of 45. He has also had two blocked. With Josh Ali sidelined, Wan’Dale Robinson presumably returns as UK’s primary punt returner. In two of its past three bowl appearances, UK has blocked an opponent’s field-goal attempt.

▪ A Melbourne, Australia, product, Iowa punter Tory Taylor has averaged 45.8 yards a kick. Of a whopping 69 punts, he has stopped 33 inside the opponents’ 20. Place-kicker Caleb Shudak is 22-of-25 on field goals with a long of 51. Return man Charlie Jones (26.3 yards a return average on kickoffs, 8.5 yards average on punts) was named the Big Ten Return Specialist of the Year. Jones had a 100-yard kickoff return TD vs. Illinois.

Advantage: Iowa.

Prediction

Kentucky 24, Iowa 22.

Saturday

No. 22 Kentucky vs. No. 15 Iowa

What: VRBO Citrus Bowl

When: 1 p.m.

Where: Camping World Stadium in Orlando, Fla.

TV: ABC-36

Records: Kentucky 9-3, Iowa 10-3

Series: First meeting

This story was originally published December 30, 2021 at 3:10 PM.

Mark Story

Lexington Herald-Leader

859-444-4731

Mark Story has worked in the Lexington Herald-Leader sports department since Aug. 27, 1990, and has been a Herald-Leader sports columnist since 2001. I have covered every Kentucky-Louisville football game since 1994, every UK-U of L basketball game but three since 1996-97 and every Kentucky Derby since 1994. Support my work with a digital subscription