Kentucky vs. Tennessee predictions: Can Wildcats hand Vols first loss?
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Preview: No. 19 Kentucky at No. 3 Tennessee
Click below to read more of the Herald-Leader’s and Kentucky.com’s preview coverage ahead of Saturday’s Kentucky-Tennessee football game scheduled for 7 p.m. at Neyland Stadium in Knoxville.
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It’s almost football time in the Bluegrass! Here are some final thoughts and predictions about how No. 19 Kentucky’s game at No. 3 Tennessee might play out on Saturday evening.
BYE-WEEK CONCERNS
Most of the talk surrounding Kentucky’s bye week has been the boost the Wildcats received from several players getting a much-needed week of rest to recover from injuries. The fact that coaches had an extra week to prepare for Tennessee’s No. 1-ranked offense has to be considered a net positive as well.
That doesn’t mean the bye week also does not bring some concerns.
“First game of the year, bowl games and after byes are the three games that defensive coordinators dread the most when it comes to tackling,” Kentucky defensive coordinator Brad White said. “You just haven’t done it at that point for 14 days. So, we need to do a good job, make a big emphasis point and we will as a defensive staff and as a defense as a whole.”
Like it was in Kentucky’s win over Mississippi State, open-field tackling will be essential against Tennessee. To have a chance at the upset, Kentucky will need to limit as many big plays as possible from the offense that has the most plays of 30 and 40 yards this season. That means tackling ball-carriers on first opportunity.
How well Kentucky limits Tennessee quarterback Hendon Hooker’s scrambling opportunities will have much to do with tackling too.
The good news is a matchup against the undefeated No. 3-ranked Volunteers should limit the worries about a lack of energy coming out of the bye. Players should have no trouble finding extra motivation for this one.
It should be noted though that Kentucky has struggled at times after off weeks in recent years.
Kentucky is 4-2 after a bye week during its run of six consecutive bowl appearances, but the performances have not always matched that record.
Two of those wins came in substandard performances against Vanderbilt. In 2019, Kentucky beat a Vanderbilt team that did not win a single SEC game by just three points. In 2018, the Wildcats threw for just 18 yards in a 14-7 win over the Commodores after a bye week.
A FAST-START NEEDED
Given Tennessee’s ability to score quickly, it’s difficult to imagine a scenario where Kentucky can put away the game early, even if it jumps out to a multiple-score lead. But given the Wildcats’ own offensive style, it’s easy to see a way Kentucky’s hopes of the upset end by halftime.
Tennessee has outscored its opponents 96-24 in the first quarter this season. The Volunteers led Alabama 28-10 early in the second quarter and LSU 23-7 at halftime.
“It’s huge,” UK quarterback Will Levis said of the importance of a fast start for the Wildcats. “... We shouldn’t need to get smacked in the mouth to get that energy up. We have to get up early and get hot early. He have to make sure we do that to give our defense confidence, to give ourselves confidence and then to dictate the tempo of the game. We can’t really do that unless we’re winning the game.”
Kentucky’s best chance to limit Tennessee’s high-octane offense involves its own offense turning long drives into points to limit the Volunteers’ number of possessions. That strategy becomes harder to execute if the Wildcats fall behind by multiple scores early and are forced to play catch-up.
UK’s veterans need no reminder of how quickly Tennessee can jump on the scoreboard.
A year ago, Tennessee scored a 75-yard touchdown on the first play of the game against Kentucky.
“We got to start out punching them in the mouth out the gate all the way to the end,” super senior outside linebacker Jordan Wright said. “If you start slow, we saw what happened to us last year. Just keeping that tempo up from the beginning to the end.”
KENTUCKY FOOTBALL INJURY REPORT
The off week has Stoops’ team in its best injury situation in weeks.
Middle linebacker Jacquez Jones remains out for “the foreseeable future” but that is perhaps the deepest position on the roster. Junior D’Eryk Jackson has played well while filling in for Jones in recent weeks, and sophomores Trevin Wallace and Martez Thrower can help fill in at the inside linebacker positions alongside weakside linebacker starter and team captain DeAndre Square.
Leading receiver Tayvion Robinson has returned to practice. Stoops reported Thursday that normal starting right tackle Jeremy Flax had a productive week of practice after missing most of the last two games with a leg injury and has a chance to be close to 100% by Saturday.
“It was nice feeling like you have all your bullets in your gun and you can go out and be the best version of yourself,” offensive coordinator Rich Scangarello said. “I am encouraged by all that. I’m encouraged by what we have going for us in that respect, but it’s our job to put together a good plan and go out and execute it.”
Quarterback Will Levis, who has dealt with finger, foot and shoulder injuries already this season stayed in Lexington throughout the bye week to rehab from his various ailments instead of traveling home to Connecticut to visit family as initially planned.
“It’s going to be kind of a process throughout the whole season to feel as good as I can leading up to each game week,” Levis said. “I feel good. This is the healthiest I’ve felt in the last month. It’s a good opportunity to go out there and play well.”
FINAL PROJECTIONS
Tennessee 35, Kentucky 28.
It was difficult to ignore the sense of confidence from Kentucky players and coaches this week despite the daunting matchup. I feel good about the Wildcats’ chances to keep this one close, but even limiting Tennessee’s possessions will not be enough to keep the Volunteers from scoring quickly. It would not surprise me if Kentucky pulled off the upset this week, but I just can’t predict it will happen due to the self-inflicted mistakes that have plagued the Wildcats this season. A close-to-perfect performance is needed this week, and we just have not seen Kentucky record one of those yet.
MVP: Jalin Hyatt. Reports from Knoxville suggest wide receiver Cedric Tillman, one of the top wide receiver prospects in the 2023 NFL Draft class, might return from a four-game absence due to an ankle injury this week, but Hyatt has established himself as Hooker’s go-to option. A couple of big plays from Hyatt, who leads the country in receiving touchdowns, seem inevitable.
“Really talented player that can find holes,” White said of Hyatt. “He’s got really long arms, so it provides a big catch radius. You put a big catch radius in open space with speed together good things happen.”
The spread: As of Thursday, Tennessee was favored by 12.5 points. For all of the Volunteers’ offensive success, it’s worth noting that three of Tennessee’s four games against Power Five opponents have been decided by one score or less. The Volunteers have scored at least 30 points in a school-record 10 straight games, but Kentucky has not surrendered 30 points in 11 straight games. The last team to break that threshold against the Wildcats was Tennessee last season.
Will Levis passing yards: 325
Tennessee total plays: 69
Tennessee passing touchdowns: 2
Barion Brown touchdowns: 2
THE FINAL WORD
“I think our guys are ready for the challenge. You don’t know what happens until the game is played, but I think they’ve prepped for it. They understand the quality of the opponent we’re about to play. There’s no under-selling. They understand the task that we have ahead of them, but they’re not afraid. They’re going to come out and they’re going to play fast. We’ll see what happens from there.”
— Defensive coordinator Brad White
This story was originally published October 28, 2022 at 7:57 AM.
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