Kentucky football vs. EKU predictions: Can Wildcats avoid another nail-biter?
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Preview: EKU at Kentucky
Click below to read more of the Herald-Leader’s and Kentucky.com’s preview coverage ahead of Saturday’s Kentucky-Eastern Kentucky football game at 3 p.m. at Kroger Field.
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It’s almost football time in the Bluegrass! Here are some final thoughts and predictions about how Kentucky’s game against Eastern Kentucky might play out at Kroger Field on Saturday.
The C.J. Conrad factor
The close connections between the coaching staffs of UK and EKU has been a popular talking point this week. EKU head coach Walt Wells and assistants Maxwell Smith and C.J. Conrad all previously worked for Mark Stoops at UK.
Conrad’s role on EKU’s staff could be particularly interesting this weekend since he was only hired as the Colonels’ tight ends coach in June. Conrad spent the spring semester as an offensive quality control coach for Kentucky, working closely with UK offensive coordinator Liam Coen to install his scheme with the Wildcats.
So, does Coen plan on changing anything Saturday knowing that a coach so familiar with Kentucky’s offense is on the other sideline?
“Just some signals,” Coen said. “Things like that you might need to change. We don’t do a ton at the line of scrimmage from a communication standpoint in terms of the no-huddle, so not really worried about any of the dialogue at the line of scrimmage.
“I love C.J., and I know he’s probably going to help them as much as he can to try to go win a football game. I’m sure it will be more like, ‘In these formations they like to do this, and this or that.’ That’s something that ultimately if they can get that coordinated and communicated during the game, all the power to them.”
Third down improvement needed
While Kentucky’s defense may have done much of the heavy lifting in the season-opening win over Ball State, head coach Mark Stoops and defensive coordinator Brad White saw plenty of room for improvement from that unit.
Among the primary areas of focus is improving the performance on third down after Ball State converted nine of 17 third downs. Ball State’s 52.9% success rate on third down puts UK’s third down defense 115th nationally.
“We were not good enough, and we need to get better there,” White said.
There was no single issue that led to the third down struggles.
White took the blame for at least a couple of the third down failures because of his call. There were others where Kentucky got the offensive look they wanted for the defense called but players did not execute correctly.
“In the second half we may have kept points off the board with the goal line stand and the blocked field goal, but what we didn’t do was we had these long extended drives and we never let the offense get the ball,” White said. “That’s on us as a defense.”
Kentucky football injury report
While the revelation that Kenneth Horsey’s injury will not end his season has to be considered good news given the fears when he was taken to the locker room on a cart in the opener, Horsey is still at least a few weeks away from playing again. West Virginia transfer Dylan Ray is expected to start in Horsey’s place. The offensive line depth is already being tested, so finding some snaps for backup guards Tanner Bowles and Paul Rodriguez could be important.
Backup cornerback Jordan Robinson missed the opener with an undisclosed injury. Defensive end Tre’vonn Rybka, who started eight games last season, did not play in the opener, but Stoops confirmed Thursday that decision was not related to an injury without providing specifics on why Rybka did not dress for the game. Both Robinson and Rybka were listed on the week two depth chart, as they were before the opener, suggesting their absences will not be long term.
FINAL PREDICTIONS
Kentucky 52, Eastern Kentucky 14
Yes, EKU has led UK in the second half of the last two meetings, but if the Wildcats struggle to score in this one it might be time to sound the alarm bells. EKU has surrendered 118 points and 1,190 yards in its last two games, the FCS playoffs loss to Gardner Webb to end last season and the 66-13 loss to Cincinnati last week. Stoops is sure to get his backups in if the outcome is decided in the second half, but the offensive starters need more snaps after running just 51 plays against Ball State.
MVP: Ray Davis
Fans can expect a better performance from quarterback Devin Leary in his second game as a Wildcat, but it will be a surprise if Davis does not top 100 rushing yards for the second consecutive week. Davis showed off impressive speed and elusiveness against Ball State. There should be plenty of time for at least a couple of big runs from Davis before UK coaches try to find some carries for the backup running backs.
The spread: On the first college football Saturday of in-person betting in Kentucky, the Wildcats are favored by 35 points at the Caesars sportsbook, which is partnering with Red Mile in Lexington. Of the nine games against FCS opponents in the Mark Stoops era, Kentucky has won by at least 35 points in four of them. Kentucky won its FCS game last season 31-0 against Youngstown State.
Over/under: The over/under for total points scored at Caesars is 61.5. No Kentucky game featured that many points last season, but EKU has surrendered at least 38 points in its last four games, dating back to last November.
THE LAST WORD
Stoops on seeing former players Smith and Conrad coaching for EKU:
“I’ll enjoy seeing those guys, but the focus will be there on all sides. They’re competitors. Believe me, you ask them and I know they love UK and have strong relationships on this staff, but I expect them to want to go in there and try to rip our eyeballs out. And our team’s going to go out there and try to play hard and play physical and win.”
This story was originally published September 8, 2023 at 7:52 AM.
