Kentucky football vs. Southern Miss predictions: Can Wildcats’ new faces start strong?
It’s almost football time in the Bluegrass! Here are some final thoughts and predictions about how Kentucky football’s 2024 season opener against Southern Miss might play out at Kroger Field on Saturday.
All eyes on Brock Vandagriff
Four years into his college career, former five-star quarterback Brock Vandagriff finally gets to make his first start Saturday.
“Always just kind of get pretty emotional,” Vandagriff said when asked what he anticipates his emotions will be in the opener. “Like, just walking out on the stadium, whether I’m third-string guy, fourth-string guy, second, first, doesn’t even matter. I think it’s just kind of a testament to just like I love ball.
“Like walking out there, probably get a little teary eyed and stuff. But that’s just what it’s all about. Obviously going to be some nerves. And just that means you care at the end of the day, so be looking forward to that. And just that’s what you do it for: the BBN, the people, your friends and family, coaches, stuff like that. So just it all comes full circle when you walk out there and you just obviously want to play your best for them.”
Vandagriff has pushed back at the narrative that he approached this offseason any differently because he was the starter than he did as the backup the last three seasons at Georgia, but it would only be human to feel something extra now that the focus is fully pointed at him.
“He’s pretty steady, and that’s one thing I’ve always had a lot of respect and appreciated about him,” offensive coordinator Bush Hamdan said. “But then again until you get in front of 70,000 at Kroger field you never know. I’m sure there’s going to be, certainly, a high level of excitement. But as we know, this is every week. It’s wanting to play football for a long, long time, and it’s the battle against you and yourself and staying focused and playing at the level you can play at.”
In three seasons as the backup to Stetson Bennett and Carson Beck at Georgia, Vandagriff completed 12 of 21 passes for 165 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions. He also gained 46 yards on six carries. Five of those completions and 27 of his rushing yards came against Kentucky last season.
Working out some nerves against Southern Miss will be important for Vandagriff with games against South Carolina and Georgia looming the next two weeks.
“I don’t really tell the coaches, but like, I will not sleep the night before,” Vandagriff said. “It’s all just so jacked up. The same thing like before I go hunt or something. It’s just, I love it and just ready for it.”
Remembering 2016
Saturday’s game marks the first trip for Southern Miss to Kroger Field since one of the low points in the Stoops era at Kentucky.
After jumping out to a 28-7 lead over Southern Miss in the 2016 opener, Kentucky collapsed for a 44-35 loss. The next week, Kentucky was blown out at Florida, leading to calls for a coaching change from some fans.
The Southern Miss collapse started at the end of the first half when the Golden Eagles scored on a 71-yard touchdown pass with 26 seconds left.
“There were some lessons in that game that I carry with me,” Stoops said. “You’ve heard me talk about scars, calls and plays and things that happened. I remember exactly what happened at the end of that half. I remember exactly the call we made. I remember exactly the mistakes I made. You’re thinking they’re running out the clock, I let a call go. I should have called timeout and regrouped. That’s on me.
“That was a long time ago, but I don’t forget.”
Stoops and company ended up salvaging the 2016 season, starting the current eight-season bowl streak. Kentucky was able to avenge the Southern Miss loss a year later in a 24-17 win in Hattiesburg to open the 2017 season.
The 2016 loss is still mentioned as an example of why Kentucky can’t overlook opponents from smaller leagues, but Stoops and recruiting coordinator Vince Marrow are the only on-field coaches still on the staff from that game.
“It was before I’d gotten here, so obviously if it was before I got here, before any of the players and really anybody else on the defensive side of the coaching staff,” defensive coordinator Brad White said. “But we don’t need to look back like that to get motivation. There’s plenty of recent occurrences where if we don’t play well, you’re in a dogfight for four quarters and sometimes you’re on the wrong end or close to the wrong end. So our guys understand.
“I’ve got no worries about them being a letdown or looking ahead, or any of that. Their sole focus has been Southern Miss. They’ve dove hard into it.”
A surprising resolution to punting battle
When Kentucky signed former UT Martin punter Aidan Laros from the transfer portal, it was assumed he would take over the Wildcats’ starting job.
Laros led all of FCS in punt average (47.3 yards per punt) and ranked ninth in that division in net punting (40.8). Incumbent Wilson Berry ranked last in the SEC among qualified punters in average punt distance (39.7 yards per punt) last season.
When Stoops released his first depth chart of the season Monday, he listed an “or” between Laros and Berry at the position, but on his radio show later that day Stoops announced Berry would likely retain his starting job for at least the opener.
“He’s just been more consistent,” Stoops said. “We’ll see where it goes.”
Berry has battled a back injury throughout his UK career, but he did start strong last season, averaging 50.4 yards per punt in his first two games. The challenge will be for Berry to find the consistency that has eluded him to date.
“Wilson has just been consistent,” special teams coordinator Jay Boulware said. “He’s doing what we ask him to do. He’s gotten so much better. His footwork is phenomenal, his hang time is solid. I just wish I had a little bit more distance with him, but we’re working on that. He’s done a better job. His average is further than it was last year, and he’s able to do so many more things that he couldn’t do last year. So, I’m looking forward to that.”
Boulware acknowledged one advantage of Berry being named the starter was the pressure it would place on Laros to continue to improve. By Thursday Stoops seemed to open the door to both punters playing, acknowledging that Laros had the stronger leg.
In one practice drill Thursday when coaches were simulating a situation where Kentucky was backed up into its own end zone, Laros booted a 75-yard punt, Stoops said.
“I’d be a real dumb, you know what ... if he could do that all the time, and he wasn’t in there,” Stoops said. “I think he is working. He’s getting better as he works through it and getting more consistent. He does have a big leg, but we can’t hit short line drives in this league, or it’ll be seven points. We just got to continue to be more consistent.”
FINAL PREDICTIONS
Kentucky 35, Southern Miss 7
The transfer portal era makes it difficult to fully know what to expect from either team heading into the season, but Kentucky’s defense is the unit we know most about. This is an early opportunity to make a statement on that side of the ball against a team that won just three games in 2023. Building confidence for the UK offense is important, but the best-case scenario is Hamdan can hold back some wrinkles for the SEC games.
MVP: Barion Brown
Brown has returned a kickoff for a touchdown in the opener in each of his first two seasons at Kentucky. Southern Miss will surely try to kick away from him Saturday, but Brown needs only one mistake for another big return. His speed should translate to at least a couple long offensive gains too.
The spread
Kentucky is favored by 28 points. The Wildcats won both their 2023 games against Group of Five teams by at least 30 points, including a 44-14 win in the season opener against Ball State. Southern Miss was blown out 66-13 at Florida State in Week 2 last season.
THE LAST WORD
“We got a lot of weapons. And then we’re not young, so we also know what it takes to win games. We also know what it takes to prepare for a game, and we also know what it takes to get to where we want to go. And that’s obviously to make the 12-team playoffs.” — Offensive tackle Gerald Mincey