Kentucky-Louisville predictions: Reporters around the state pick 2024 Governor’s Cup winner

Good luck predicting what will happen in the Governor’s Cup rivalry Saturday.

Kentucky has dominated the series of late, winning five straight, including an upset of a top-10 Louisville team on the road last season, but the Wildcats have already clinched a losing season this year while Louisville has spent the season bouncing in and out of the Top 25. Mark Stoops’ decision to start freshman quarterback Cutter Boley after he impressed off the bench in the last two games adds another element of uncertainty to the matchup.

So, who will win? The Herald-Leader polled reporters covering both UK and U of L to ask their opinion.

Gary Graves (Associated Press): Louisville’s susceptibility to allowing explosive plays, like last year, gives Kentucky and Boley a chance. Otherwise, the Wildcats’ offense will be hard pressed to keep up with the Cardinals’ attack. Louisville 24, Kentucky 13.

Dick Gabriel (Big Blue Insider): This is provided UK is at least plus-2 in the turnover margin and provides ample protection for Boley. Otherwise, a frigid Kroger Field could be empty by the time the final buzzer sounds. Kentucky 24, Louisville 23.

Mike Rutherford (CardChronicle): I swore after 2022 that I wouldn’t pick Louisville to win this game again until I actually witnessed the Cardinals do it. I went back on that last year because of the Jeff Brohm factor, and then made the same vow after the Wildcats triumphed once again. I can’t go back on that vow two years in a row. UK finds a way. Kentucky 24, Louisville 20.

Jeff Drummond (Cats Illustrated): I’ve been torn on this one all season. On the one hand, I should pick the Cats until I see the Cards prove they can beat them. On the other, U of L is just the safer pick to put more points on the board. Louisville 29, Kentucky 26.

Justin Rowland (Cats Illustrated): This one could obviously go either way. If Kentucky’s offense comes out and looks like a train wreck, which is totally possible, I’m just wrong here. But I’ll call for UK to ground out a game in a series they tend to play well in. Kentucky 23, Louisville 20.

Aaron Gershon (The Cats’ Pause): It’s hard to pick against a team that seems to dominate a head-to-head series. Even in years such as 2023, when Louisville had the better season, Kentucky has seemed to find a way to victory over its archrival. With Boley bringing some energy and UK’s size in the trenches, I’ll pick the Cats, given U of L has yet to prove it can beat Kentucky without Lamar Jackson under center since 2014. Kentucky 23, Louisville, 14.

Nick Coffey (Coffey and Company): Louisville has proven they can score points. Jeff Brohm’s offense is averaging 36 ppg overall and 32 ppg against four top 12 teams. The Cards defense has been shaky at times, but they’ll do enough to contain Kentucky’s offense, which ranks dead last in the SEC. Louisville 27, Kentucky 16.

Ryan Black (The Courier-Journal): Cutter Boley gives the UK offense some kick, which has been desperately needed all season. And the Wildcats’ defense does enough to turn back the Cardinals yet again. Kentucky 27, Louisville 24.

Alexis Cubit (The Courier Journal): Despite a hiccup at Stanford, the Cardinals have adjusted and made enough improvements on both sides of the ball throughout the year to take the Governor’s Cup back for the first time since 2017. Louisville 38, Kentucky 17.

Matt Jones (Kentucky Sports Radio): The streak ends in a tough loss at home. Louisville 23, Kentucky 20.

Adam Luckett (Kentucky Sports Radio): Predicting this game feels impossible as both teams have played to their competition all season. But there’s no denying the mental edge that UK has in this series. Cats find a way with Boley at QB with a game-winning field goal in the fourth quarter. Kentucky 24, Louisville 23.

Nick Roush (Kentucky Sports Radio): No possible outcome would surprise me. Even though Kentucky clearly has a mental edge on Louisville, they also have my brain in a pretzel and I can’t bet on this team to score more than 21 points against a power conference opponent. Boley will get them close to that before a turnover quickly turns into a Louisville chunk play that puts the game away. Louisville 31, Kentucky 24.

Keith Taylor (Kentucky Today): Cardinals are poised to end five-game losing streak and end long season for UK. Louisville 30, Kentucky 20.

Jon Hale (Lexington Herald-Leader): I felt the chances of a 2017-style embarrassment for Kentucky were high until Boley was named the starter. The excitement around him and other young Wildcats expected to feature heavily in the game make me lean toward Kentucky continuing its run of success. Kentucky 27, Louisville 24.

Matt McGavic (LouisvilleOnSI): Louisville’s offense is pretty evenly matched with Kentucky’s defense, so I think this comes down to UK’s offense vs. U of L’s defense. The Wildcats’ offense has shown zero signs of cohesion against power competition, whereas the Cardinals’ defense has at least shown some signs of progress (albeit inconsistently). My confidence isn’t super high because of the series’ recent history, but I think the Cards finally snap the streak. Louisville 31, Kentucky 24.

Dylan Ballard (Sea of Blue): Kentucky has struggled in almost every aspect this season, but I feel like the Cats win this one because Stoops and staff always get up for this game. Kentucky 24, Louisville 20.

Larry Vaught (VaughtsViews): Counting on the Cutter Boley Effect to rejuvenate the offense and the UK defense to play its best. It takes 20 or more points to win this game almost every year, so UK needed to make change to hopefully find a way to score touchdowns. Kentucky 24, Louisville 21.

Dusty Baker (WAVE): The battle between the Louisville offense and Kentucky defense is what makes this matchup appealing, and I expect the U of L run game to behind Isaac Brown to be a key difference-maker. I expect it to be a close game that comes down to the wire, but the experience of Tyler Shough facing the inexperienced Boley has me leaning toward the Cardinals. Louisville 24, Kentucky 23.

Kendrick Haskins (WAVE): I think the Cats have found something in Boley and U of L’s defense has been inconsistent all season. Kentucky 28, Louisville 24.

Michael Epps (WDKY): There is still some fight left in this UK team and, if nothing else, it wants to throw those L’s down one more time. Boley takes this opportunity to firmly claim the title of QB1 next season, and the defense puts together a game that it was supposed to display all year. Kentucky 38, Louisville 20.

Tyler Greever (WDRB): While I think Boley is not going to be rattled in starting a rivalry game as a freshman, it is difficult to trust the Kentucky offense to do enough. But what Louisville has also failed to do is show consistency. Still, I think the difference is Shough. His experience and playmaking ability lift the Cards in Lexington. Louisville 24, Kentucky 20.

Kent Spencer (WHAS): Boley shows promise but the Cards offense is functioning at an extremely high level. Louisville 28, Kentucky 14.

Lyndsey Gough (WKYT): Despite it being a down year for the Wildcats, I think Boley will reenergize this squad and lead them to his first win and keep the Governor’s Cup trophy in Lexington. Kentucky 31, Louisville 28.

Hallie DeVore (WTVQ): After the bowl game streak snaps, so does this one, but could be a situation like Tennessee where it’s very much a game at the half. Louisville 24, Kentucky 17.

Jeff Piecoro (WTVQ): To be the man you gotta beat the man! Louisville has to prove they can beat Kentucky. Not this year. Kentucky 27, Louisville 21.

Forrest Tucker (WTVQ): Kentucky, despite making a quarterback change, doesn’t have enough offensive consistency to win this game in my opinion. If the Cats retain the Governor’s Cup, defense and special teams will have stepped up big time. If this game comes down to field goals, UK does have the edge with the almost perfect Alex Raynor, but I’m not convinced it will. Louisville 27, Kentucky 20.

This story was originally published November 28, 2024 at 6:45 AM.

Jon Hale

Lexington Herald-Leader

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Jon Hale is the University of Kentucky football beat writer for the Lexington Herald-Leader. He joined the Herald-Leader in 2022 but has covered UK athletics for more than 10 years. Hale was named the 2021 Kentucky Sportswriter of the Year. Support my work with a digital subscription