UK vs. Louisville prediction: Can Kentucky extend Governor’s Cup streak to six wins?

It’s almost football time in the Bluegrass for the last time this season. Here are some final thoughts and predictions about how Kentucky football’s game against Louisville might play out at Kroger Field on Saturday.

A different type of Governor’s Cup rivalry

One of the reasons it is so difficult to predict what will happen in this game is we have no prior experience seeing how Kentucky will play in the rivalry with bowl eligibility already off the table.

From 1994 to 2013 the game was played in the first month of the season, usually as the opener. Since the game moved to the regular season finale in 2014, Kentucky has entered rivalry week with at least five wins. The Wildcats fell short in 2014 and 2015 with a chance to reach a bowl with a win against Louisville. Since 2016, Kentucky has had at least six wins at the time of the game.

“I think you have an extra sense of pride anytime you play a game for a trophy, whether that be a bowl game or the Governor’s Cup,” senior center Eli Cox said this week. “And I just told the guys that there’s nothing left to save it for. This is the last Tuesday practice. This is the last Wednesday practice. There’s no reason to leave anything in the tank. So just leave it all out on the field for Saturday, and there’ll be no feeling like the one walking off that field with the trophy on Saturday.”

If you could guarantee Cox’s teammates will take that same approach, there would be plenty of reason to expect Kentucky to extend its winning streak in the rivalry to six games, despite its losing record. After all, Mark Stoops’ team has repeatedly proven in recent years that struggling in SEC play does not necessarily have any bearing on its matchups with nonconference opponents.

But this is also a Kentucky team that has looked lost at times this season. Starting freshman quarterback Cutter Boley might provide the Wildcats a needed spark or it might further exacerbate issues on an offense that failed to score more than 20 points in an SEC game.

“I never shied away from the importance of this game,” Stoops said. “Told you that game one, day one, and I’ll say it again this year. It doesn’t really matter what the records are or anything like that. I have a lot of respect for Jeff (Brohm) and the way he coaches and their program. It is important to our fan base, it’s important for our players, it’s important to me that we go play well.”

Senior day watch

Since all players on rosters in 2020 were granted a waiver that essentially amounted to an extra year of eligibility, senior day festivities have not looked the same.

Previously players only participated before what they knew would be their final home game. Now, a host of players on the roster already have walked through a senior day ceremony only to decide to return to school. That’s the case for Wildcats like J.J. Weaver, who is playing his final college game Saturday but actually participated in senior day two years ago.

As of Monday, Kentucky planned to honor 17 players as part of senior day: quarterback Beau Allen, punter Wilson Berry, safety Zion Childress, wide receiver Trey Dennis, tight end Jordan Dingle, linebacker Jamon Dumas-Johnson, cornerback Maxwell Hairston, offensive tackle Gerald Mincey, defensive back Jarard Mosely, defensive lineman Octavious Oxendine, offensive lineman Lucas Padgett, offensive lineman Paul Rodriguez, defensive lineman Tre’vonn Rybka, defensive back Jackson Schulz, safety Kristian Story and running back Demie Sumo-Kargnbaye.

Of the scholarship players on that list, Berry, Dingle and Hairston have eligibility still remaining after this season. Participating in senior day does not guarantee they will not return next season, but it could signal the outcome of their pending stay-or-go decision. Hairston is almost certainly finished playing college football since he is ranked as a top-50 NFL draft prospect by The Athletic.

It is worth noting that none of the seven class of 2020 recruits who still can use the pandemic waiver to return next season (Chip Trayanum, Ja’Mori Maclin, Courtland Ford, Josaih Hayes, Darrion Henry-Young, D’Eryk Jackson and Daveren Rayner) are participating in senior day, but that decision does not necessarily mean they are planning to return to UK. Jackson, the most impactful player on that list, participated in senior day last year. Trayanum and Maclin are playing their first seasons as Wildcats and simply might not feel comfortable participating after inconsistent playing time this season. Each of those seven players could return though, and should be included on the list of players who will need to make announcements about their futures in the coming days.

Kentucky football injury report

Since Kentucky is not playing an SEC opponent this week, there was no SEC-mandated availability report published. That means information on the status of injured players is limited. Stoops previously announced Jackson and Mincey would be out for the rest of the season. Backup cornerbacks D.J. Waller, Tehryon Nichols and Jantzen Dunn and reserve nose guard Tavion Gadson were also listed as out for last week’s game at Texas.

Kentucky vs. Louisville prediction

Before Stoops announced Boley would start this game, I thought there was real reason to fear a 2017-style embarrassment for Kentucky since player emotions have too often resulted in silly penalties and mistakes this season. The rivalry could still bring out the worst of that in Kentucky, but the ability to rally around an exciting freshman at quarterback and other young players looking to head into the offseason on a positive note should lessen some of that worry. There still is no guarantee Kentucky will play well enough to win, but I’m going to pick UK in this game until I see Louisville actually win one. Kentucky 27, Louisville 24.

The final word

“I’m super excited, but I’m just preparing like every other week, just really staying in the game plan. Listen to Coach (Bush) Hamdan and just exhaust my preparation throughout the week, but I just got to treat this like another game. The emotions are going to be high in this game, so I can’t get up too high, too low. Just got to stay focused and execute.” — Boley on handling his first start in a rivalry game

This story was originally published November 29, 2024 at 6:45 AM.

Jon Hale

Lexington Herald-Leader

(859) 414-6776

Jon Hale is the University of Kentucky football beat writer for the Lexington Herald-Leader. He joined the Herald-Leader in 2022 but has covered UK athletics for more than 10 years. Hale was named the 2021 Kentucky Sportswriter of the Year. Support my work with a digital subscription