Kentucky vs. Texas prediction: How will Wildcats fare against Arch Manning?

For the first time in 35 days, Kentucky football will host a game at Kroger Field on Saturday when No. 21 Texas plays in Lexington for the first time. Since Kentucky last played at home, the Wildcats have been outscored 70-27 in two SEC road games sandwiched by two bye weeks.

With pressure on Mark Stoops increasing with each loss, can Kentucky shock even its own fans with an upset of the Longhorns? Here are some final thoughts and predictions about how the game will play out Saturday at 7 p.m.

The Manning show comes to town

A disappointing start to the season has dropped Texas quarterback Arch Manning from the lists of Heisman Trophy candidates he led entering the season, but the nephew of NFL quarterbacks Peyton and Eli Manning will still be a star attraction when the Longhorns play at Kroger Field.

Manning is coming off an encouraging performance last Saturday in the Longhorns’ upset of Oklahoma in which he completed 21 of 27 passes for 166 yards and one touchdown. He also rushed for 34 yards on four carries.

“He’s playing really well,” UK defensive coordinator Brad White said. “I don’t think people realize what he’s doing, how he’s operating. And every game has been sort of a little bit different. I think he’s handled it great. He’s taken some big hits. He’s extended plays with his legs. He gets up. He’s made some really big-time throws. Obviously, the arm strength, there’s no issues there.”

Casual fans might see Manning on the back of his jersey and expect Arch to be the same type of statuesque pocket passer as his famous uncles, but he leads Texas in rushing yards (194) for the season.

While Manning may not have lived up to the soaring hype that surrounded him entering the season, he still has a chance to carry Texas back to playoff contention with a strong finish.

“I can’t speak for Arch, but he didn’t ask for any of that (hype),” Stoops said. “Everything that I could see, and hearing from him, he’s just a young man putting his head down, trying to get better. And I think a lot of that is unfair, and it is what it is. He understands that, I don’t need to tell him anything that he hasn’t heard from his famous uncles and father and all that, but he’s just a young man getting better with every rep. You can see the confidence in him, and why wouldn’t he be confident? He’s a very good football player.”

Focus on tackling

Kentucky’s offense has taken the most heat for the Wildcats’ struggles this season, but the defensive production has lagged in recent games too. Now both units rank outside the top 100 nationally.

A consistent theme in the defensive struggles has been poor perimeter tackling.

Against Ole Miss, the issue came on hitch routes from the Rebel receivers. Against South Carolina, the biggest problem was bringing down star quarterback LaNorris Sellers. Against Georgia, the physicality of the Bulldogs’ playmakers often resulted in misses from UK defenders.

“I would say until we tackle efficiently and effectively, yes, it’s an issue,” White said after the Georgia loss. “I’m not going to sugarcoat that. You can’t be a good defense if you’re not a good tackling defense. That’s the bottom line. And so, doesn’t matter how well you execute. Doesn’t matter if you’re in the right spot. It doesn’t matter if we get the ball pushed exactly where we want to get pushed. If we don’t tackle it and tackle it there, we’re going to have issues getting off the field.”

Addressing the issue is not as simple as tackling more in practice.

Coaches rarely have players tackle to the ground in practice out of fear of adding unnecessary injuries to players who will be needed in games. Asked if he would consider adding more live tackling to practice, Stoops questioned whether that would even help the issue.

“I just think our position on the football hasn’t been great,” he said. “...There’s some really talented players, and there’s other times we’re just not in good position. So we just got to work it all and just get better.”

Kentucky football injury report

Running back Seth McGowan and cornerback DJ Waller remain on track to play against Texas. Neither starter was included on the first SEC-mandated availability report this week, indicating they are available.

Getting Waller back after he missed the last four games with a hamstring injury could be particularly helpful to UK’s defense.

“He really wants to go,” White said. “He had a really good offseason, and he’s really been itching to get out there and show what he can do. Been trending in the right direction this week, and so we’ll see how it goes on Saturday.”

Backup nickel back Jaden Smith, guard Aba Selm and wide reciever Troy Stellato were listed as probable or questionable during the week but left off the final game day report, indicating they are available. Linebackers Jacob Smith and Devin Smith, defensive back Nasir Addison, defensive lineman Nic Smith, wide receiver David Washington and tight end Elijah Brown were listed as out, as was suspended running back Jamarion Wilcox. None of those players has seen significant snaps for Kentucky this season.

Kentucky vs. Texas prediction

Kentucky has lost nine straight games against power-conference competition. It has not beaten a power-conference foe at home in more than two years. No, Texas has not lived up to its preseason No. 1 ranking, but the Longhorns still rank third nationally in scoring defense (11 points per game). A Kentucky offense that has not scored more than two offensive touchdowns against a power-conference team since 2023 is likely to be overmatched again. Texas 35, Kentucky 10.

The last word

“Obviously it’s going to be frustrating when you’re out here, the work you’re putting in is not coming to fruition quite yet. But I feel like everybody still believes, and everybody’s coming to work every single day. We know the team we can be. We’re the only ones in here in the locker room every day, and we see what we can do. And every single one of these dudes believes that we can win every game we play. We just got to put it all together. And we’re starting to put those pieces all together, for sure.” — QB Cutter Boley on team morale

This story was originally published October 17, 2025 at 6:30 AM.

Jon Hale

Lexington Herald-Leader

(859) 414-6776

Jon Hale is the University of Kentucky football beat writer for the Lexington Herald-Leader. He joined the Herald-Leader in 2022 but has covered UK athletics for more than 10 years. Hale was named the 2021 Kentucky Sportswriter of the Year. Support my work with a digital subscription