Kentucky vs. Tennessee prediction: After near-miss vs. Texas, can Cats snap streak?

The second half of the 2025 season begins for Kentucky football Saturday with the Wildcats still searching for their first SEC win.

The next chance for an upset comes against No. 17 Tennessee. Kentucky has lost its last four meetings with Tennessee, but the past four games in Lexington were one-score affairs. One week after Kentucky just missed an upset of Texas in an overtime loss, can the Wildcats finish the task this week?

Here are some final thoughts and predictions about how the game will play out Saturday at 7:45 p.m.

Tweaked offensive strategy gets a new test

Kentucky has still yet to score more than two offensive touchdowns against a power-conference foe this season, but there were clear signs of progress for the passing attack in losses to Georgia and Texas. That progress came after offensive coordinator Bush Hamdan tweaked his scheme to prioritize redshirt freshman quarterback Cutter Boley getting the ball out faster.

Boley attempted 41 passes at Georgia and 39 against Texas, but the vast majority of those throws were of the short or intermediate variety.

Can that same strategy work against a more-aggressive Tennessee defense that ranks second in the SEC in sacks per game?

“You always try to make some tweaks here and there, but I think in general through football, you got to get the ball out of the quarterback’s hands,” Hamdan said. “That’s been something we have made a huge emphasis on, and getting them early completions and being more balanced.

“It always comes with the explosive (play) thing. How are we going to create more explosives? As you guys know, when you take those shots (down the field) a lot of times, you got to hold up longer, and those can be riskier calls. So we got to know the right time to take those shots.”

Kentucky ranks 115th nationally in passing plays of at least 20 yards (14), but Tennessee ranks 128th in passing plays of at least 20 yards allowed (28). If Kentucky’s offensive line can give Boley enough time to find open receivers, this looks like an opportunity to finally add some explosive plays to the offense.

Defense has momentum and a new challenge

After its worst performance of the season at Georgia, Kentucky’s defense posted its best showing yet last week against Texas.

Kentucky held Texas to just 179 total yards, 123 yards fewer than the Longhorns’ previous low this season. Key in the turnaround was improved perimeter tackling, but the Texas offense has not scored more than 23 points against a power-conference foe this season.

Meanwhile, Tennessee boasts one of the most explosive offenses in the country, ranking second nationally in points per game (44.1) and fifth in yards per game (511). The Volunteers are balanced too, averaging 200 yards per game on the ground and 311 per game through the air.

“Every week’s its own little unique challenge scenario, and so the guys have to wipe last week in terms of knowledge,” defensive coordinator Brad White said. “What you’d like them to feel is that energy that they played with (against Texas). I was really proud of the effort that they displayed, and we’re going to need to carry that over. We’re going to have to play a really clean game. Guys are going to have to win one-on-ones.”

Tennessee’s offense is thriving despite losing starting quarterback Nico Iamaleava to the transfer portal after spring practice. The Volunteers essentially traded Iamaleava for Joey Aguilar, the quarterback who left UCLA when Iamaleava signed there.

That move has worked out fine for Tennessee, with Aguilar ranking 11th nationally in passing yards per game (278.3).

“They’ve got a really, really strong coaching staff, and they did a great job adapting to him, making him feel comfortable,” White said. “Obviously, the team had to do a great job welcoming him with open arms, getting him adjusted. Yeah, credit to them.”

Kentucky football injury report

The reveal of Wednesday’s SEC-mandated availability report made Kentucky look like a team still recovering from the physical toll of its overtime loss to Texas.

Star running back Seth McGowan, who had to leave the Texas game to go to the hospital for a chest scan, was listed as a game-time decision on the final SEC availability report released 90 minutes before kickoff despite UK coach Mark Stoops saying Monday he expected McGowan to be available this week. McGowan did return to the game against Texas after the scan was clear. A game-time decision designation means McGowan will likely participate in warmups to gauge how much he can play. Teams are instructed by the SEC to use that designation only in situations where it is truly unclear if the player will be avaliable before warmups.

Wide receiver Fred Farrier and offensive guard Aba Selm were initially listed as questionable on Wednesday but upgraded to available by Friday. Tight ends Josh Kattus and Willie Rodriguez were listed as probable on Wednesday then removed from Thursday’s update, indicating they are available to play. Defensive lineman Kahlil Saunders was listed as probable throughout the week and available on Saturday. Defensive back Jantzen Dunn was listed as a game-time decision, like McGowan.

Cornerback DJ Waller was set to play for the first time since the season opener against Texas but reaggravated his hamstring injury in early warmups and ended up missing his fifth straight game. He was listed as doubtful on Wednesday’s availability report then downgraded to out on Thursday.

“We did an MRI, and there is definitely a spot,” Stoops said. “It’s a little setback. We’ll see whether it’s in the scar tissue or whether it’s new and try to get him back as soon as possible. But I know he’s chomping at the bit.”

Edge rusher Steven Soles was a surprise inclusion on the game day report, listed as out, after not being included on the availability report during the week. He leads Kentucky with three sacks on the season.

Linebackers Jacob Smith and Devin Smith, defensive lineman Nic Smith, wide receiver David Washington and tight end Elijah Brown remain out. Wide receiver Troy Stellato, who returned from an injury to make his first catch of the season against Texas, is unavailable once again.

Running back Jamarion Wilcox is still suspended following his September arrest.

Kentucky football vs. Tennessee prediction

This sets up as the prototypical trap game for Tennessee, sandwiched between games against ranked opponents Alabama and Oklahoma, but it’s difficult to imagine Kentucky scoring enough to match the Volunteers, even with the recent offensive improvements. Maybe the defense can build on its impressive showing against Texas, but the Volunteers have been held to fewer than 34 points just once this season. Kentucky hasn’t scored 30 points against a power-conference foe since 2023. Tennessee 31, Kentucky 21.

The last word

“Pull the fire alarm the night before. Maybe they come down with the flu. They’re as good of a trio — I would put them up with anybody in the country. The way they run their routes, the way they attack the football, they’re long, they’re physical, they’re fast. … They must train for marathons, because they play the entire game, those three, and they play full speed, non-stop. It’s really one of the most impressive things that I’ve seen on film.”

— White on how Kentucky can slow Tennessee receivers Chris Brazzell, Braylon Staley and Mike Matthews.

This story was originally published October 24, 2025 at 6:30 AM.

Jon Hale

Lexington Herald-Leader

(859) 414-6776

Jon Hale is the University of Kentucky football beat writer for the Lexington Herald-Leader. He joined the Herald-Leader in 2022 but has covered UK athletics for more than 10 years. Hale was named the 2021 Kentucky Sportswriter of the Year. Support my work with a digital subscription