A look into the recruiting future (and other Kentucky basketball notes)
A big thanks to all of the questions we received for the Kentucky basketball mailbags this week.
One question that didn’t get answered in the recruiting portion of the mailbag posts looked a little further into the future.
What’s the latest with the 2022 class?
That’s a difficult one to fully answer at this point, mostly due to the uncertainty of the COVID-19 pandemic and its impact on the college basketball recruiting world.
The players in the 2022 class are currently high school juniors, and typically at this point in the cycle we’d have a great idea of Kentucky’s top early targets. So far, only one player from that class — five-star point guard Skyy Clark — has a confirmed UK scholarship offer, and he’s considering a move to the class of 2021.
Clark was also well known to UK’s coaches before the pandemic hit. Assistant coach Joel Justus had visited him several times. Clark and his family had traveled to Lexington for a recruiting visit (just weeks before the NCAA recruiting ban began). A UK scholarship offer for Clark was seen as a formality. (He’ll announce his college decision Oct. 22, by the way).
It’s important to keep in mind that — right before the pandemic — UK was still working on filling out its 2020 class, and any looking ahead was focused primarily on the class of 2021. This past spring and summer would’ve been the normal time for coaches to start seriously building relationships with players from the 2022 class. Obviously, they didn’t get a chance to do that.
UK’s typical process is also to evaluate players early, communicate to them what they need to work on, and then re-evaluate their progress in those areas after a few months. That’s much tougher to do when you can’t see a player in person.
Another hang-up for UK and the 2022 class: there’s been talk in recruiting circles for months that this group will feature several highly touted players that skip college altogether. Even if the NBA’s “one-and-done” rule isn’t nixed ahead of the 2022 draft, which seems less likely now than it did a year ago, the G League and other professional options remain lucrative paths out of high school, and there are plenty of prospects in this 2022 class that could easily take that route. The top three players in the class — Emoni Bates, Jalen Duren and Chris Livingston — have already been mentioned as possible preps-to-pros players. Some others further down the list will ultimately take that path.
So, on top of evaluating prospects for whether or not they’ll fit at Kentucky, coaches must do the necessary background work on which of these young players are likely to bypass college completely. Not an easy task at this point in the process.
Still, there are some early names to watch.
Five-star point guard Jaden Bradley is already well-acquainted with the UK coaching staff and has remained in contact with the Wildcats’ staff. No. 4-ranked Amari Bailey, a former teammate of UK freshman Brandon Boston Jr., is on Kentucky’s radar. Nashville-area star Brandon Miller (ranked No. 11) has already visited UK. The Cats have reached out to Florida small forward Jarace Walker, Kansas small forward Mark Mitchell and Texas shooting guard Keyonte George, while Angola big man Sadraque Nganga and New Jersey combo guard Zion Cruz haven’t been hiding their love for UK, which has reciprocated the interest. And that just covers players in the top 20 of the 247Sports composite rankings. Recent history says that Calipari will cast a wider net — and look further down the rankings — for potential UK targets.
The hope in the college basketball community seems to be that coaches will be able to safely get back on the recruiting trail by spring of next year. Between now and then, UK’s coaches will continue to evaluate prospects from the 2022 class and build relationships through phone calls and video meetings, and I think we’ll have a much better idea of Kentucky’s top recruiting priorities in that class by the summer.
No. 1 recruit to Milwaukee?
One more question leftover from our mailbag call this week:
About Patrick Baldwin Jr. — I’ve written him off, but have you heard anything about Milwaukee’s chances? As a UK fan I obviously don’t want him going to Duke. We’ve lost quite a few lately to family ties. It’d be nice to see it happen to them.
The schadenfreude remains strong when it comes to the UK-Duke recruiting rivalry.
First off, yes, Kentucky fans shouldn’t get their hopes up on Baldwin. The 6-foot-9 forward is still listing the Wildcats, but UK is not one of the many schools he’s visited so far, and it seems more likely than not that he’ll be making a college decision before the NCAA lifts its recruiting travel ban.
I think Duke is the favorite here. At the time the Blue Devils extended a scholarship offer, it was reported that Baldwin was the youngest recruit Mike Krzyzewski had ever offered. Duke has stayed on him strong in the time since. He visited Durham earlier in his recruitment. And he just seems a good fit for that program.
That said, I would not be surprised at all if he chooses to stay home and play for Milwaukee, where his father is the head coach. Asking around over the past few weeks, that’s a stance shared by others in recruiting circles.
Baldwin is super close to his family, and his father, in particular. I’ve heard the argument that the elder Baldwin has already shaped his son into the No. 1 recruit in all of high school basketball and a surefire top NBA Draft pick a couple of years from now, so why go somewhere else when he can continue to thrive under his tutelage for another year? It’s a solid case, and there is definitely some buzz — even among the other schools recruiting Baldwin — that it might be tough to get him away from home for college. We’ll see.
Kentucky fans looking ahead to the 2022 NCAA Tournament will certainly be rooting for Baldwin to make a Milwaukee pledge. The Blue Devils already have commitments from former UK mega-target Paolo Banchero, the No. 3 player in the 247Sports composite rankings, and A.J. Griffin, the No. 6 player on that list. This week, No. 8-ranked Caleb Houstan included Duke in his final four. And the Blue Devils are the consensus favorite for No. 16 Trevor Keels.
Coach K is building another possible No. 1 recruiting class for next season, and Baldwin would be the biggest name in the group.
More Top 100 commitments
As we explored last week, the very best players in the 2021 class are making their college decisions much earlier in the process compared to past recruiting cycles, despite the NCAA’s ongoing “dead period” that bars recruiting travel.
That trend has continued into October.
Coming into the month, 68 of the Top 100 prospects in the Rivals.com rankings for the 2021 class had already picked their colleges. That’s a staggeringly high number. Only 39 of the Top 100 players in the 2020 class had decided by Oct. 1 last year. And just 30 of the Top 100 in the class of 2019 had picked a school by Oct. 1 the previous year.
The number of high-profile 2021 commitments is only growing.
Since Oct. 1, three more Top 100 players have announced decisions: No. 13 JD Davison (Alabama), No. 46 Jordan Nesbitt (Memphis), and No. 79 Jakai Robinson (Miami). It’s also worth noting that another player who was previously committed — No. 23-ranked Bryce McGowens — backed off his pledge to Florida State on Thursday.
On Friday, five-star forward Jabari Smith — the No. 4 player in the Rivals rankings — will reveal his decision, and Auburn is the favorite going into that announcement.
Meanwhile, other elite prospects in the 2021 class have cut their school lists over the past few days as they near college commitments.
It’s becoming even more clear that the number of available, elite high school talents after next month’s early signing period will be far fewer than in previous recruiting cycles.
Kentucky vs. Oklahoma?
Five-star forward Daimion Collins — the No. 10 overall player in the Rivals.com rankings for 2021 — cut his list to five schools this week: Kansas, Kentucky, Oklahoma, Texas and Texas Tech.
There’s already a top tier to that group, though, and UK is in it.
After revealing Collins’ final five, Joe Tipton of the popular Tipton Edits Twitter account posted his pick: “Prediction is Oklahoma (for now), with Kentucky in second place.”
Tipton, who creates graphics for many top-ranked recruits to announce their list cuts and commitments, noted that he only makes predictions for players who have not told him where they’re going.
Before Kentucky extended a scholarship offer to Collins in late August, the clear leaders in his recruitment were thought to be Oklahoma and Texas. The Wildcats have also since hired Collins’ lead recruiter at Texas, Jai Lucas, for a new role on John Calipari’s staff.
Working their way into the top two in Collins’ recruitment in just a matter of weeks is an accomplishment in itself, and the fact that Collins hasn’t told Tipton where he’s going suggests he’s still open in his recruitment, something that matches up with what his high school coach told the Herald-Leader a couple of weeks ago.
Kentucky’s chances to land the elite shot-blocker from east Texas are very much alive, and it won’t be a surprise if Collins is ready to announce a decision by the early signing period in mid-November.
This story was originally published October 9, 2020 at 7:13 AM.
