High school basketball playoffs: Predicting every region as the Girls’ Sweet 16 nears
The Kentucky girls’ high school basketball postseason is already underway as we begin to find out who will contend for the 2022-23 Mingua Beef Jerky Girls’ Sweet 16 championship next month in Rupp Arena.
Here’s a look at the favorites, potential spoilers, and teams with top players who could get hot and make a run to a regional title and, maybe, state tournament history. All of last week’s district finalists made their respective regional tournaments. Only region champions make the Girls’ Sweet 16.
We’ll start with Central Kentucky’s 11th Region and then make our way around the state. Last season I picked 10 of the 16 regions correctly.
11th Region
Favorite: Franklin County (30-8) will look to win its fourth straight region title but could be facing its most formidable opposition in years. Junior Rachel Shropshire leads Franklin County in scoring at 10.8 points per game. She’s the only Flyer averaging double figures in scoring. Curiously, the Flyers have only played one game against a regional opponent outside of their district this season, so they are going in untested against the 11th’s best. Still, with a 52-0 record against region foes over the last four years, they are the favorite until someone knocks them off.
Spoilers: Frederick Douglass (21-9) has the guard play and inside presence to make history for the 6-year-old program. Senior transfer Jermyra Christian recently topped 2,000 career points, sophomore guard Niah Rhodes is one of the most prolific three-point shooters in the state and Ayanna Darrington averages a double-double. Darrington has been resting a nagging ankle injury for the last few games. If she can’t go, it complicates matters for the Broncos. Madison Central (20-6) can get buckets inside with the reliable scoring of Bailey Hensley (17.1 points and 8.6 rebounds per game). The Indians have impressive wins over Corbin, Montgomery County and blowouts over nine teams within the region. Their only loss within the 11th Region came to Frederick Douglass.
@HLpreps pick: Frederick Douglass.
1st Region
Favorite: McCracken County (29-2), led by Miss Basketball candidate and Murray State signee Destiny Thomas (18.5 points), has demolished everyone in the 1st Region. She’s joined in double figures by junior point guard Claire Johnson (16.7 points) and senior Briley Benton (12.9). The Mustangs’ only losses this season have come to 9th Region powers Ryle and Covington Holy Cross.
Spoilers: None. McCracken throttled its top challengers: Graves County (24-7) 58-17 on Feb. 10 and Mayfield (17-10) 77-29 on Jan. 16.
@HLpreps pick: McCracken County.
2nd Region
Favorite: Henderson County (23-4) has won the 2nd Region championship for four seasons running and has much of its roster back from its Sweet 16 team of a year ago, including leading scorers Jarie Thomas (14.5 points) and Graci Risley (13.1). The Colonels have been so dominant in recent years, only three region teams from outside their district have scheduled them this season. All were routed.
Spoilers: Crittenden County (23-5) has region player of the year and Miss Basketball candidate Taylor Guess (23.3 points) but has faced only a few teams of Henderson’s caliber this season and lost by eight to Hopkins County Central on Feb. 14. Hopkins County Central (23-8) would need to massively improve after a 60-32 loss to Henderson to end the regular season.
@HLpreps pick: Henderson County.
3rd Region
Favorite: Meade County (21-9), the defending region champ, has one of the state’s top sophomores, Peyton Bradley (22.7 points) and fellow double-figure scorers Paige Medley (13.0) and Katie Durbin (10.9). The Lady Waves have not faced a serious challenge within the region this season.
Spoiler: Owensboro Catholic (22-9) might have the best shot, but it lost 59-42 to Meade County on Feb. 6. The Aces are led by Hailee Johnson (12.9 points) and Karmin Riley (11.0).
@HLpreps pick: Meade County.
4th Region
Favorite: Bowling Green (21-10) has won three straight region titles and features three senior standouts, led by region player of the year and Miss Basketball candidate Meadow Tisdale (13.0 points), a Northern Kentucky signee. Saniyah Shelton (10.2 points) is committed to EKU. Tanaya Bailey (10.9 points) has offers from Centre and Lindsey Wilson.
Spoiler: Barren County (26-6), led by junior guard Abigail Varney (16.9 points), dropped a close game to the Purples 48-44 on Feb. 6 and might have its best shot to return to the Sweet 16 after a three-year drought.
@HLpreps pick: Bowling Green.
5th Region
Favorite: Bethlehem (25-7) has made two straight trips to the Girls’ Sweet 16 and has veteran experience from last year’s postseason run, including junior point guard Carlie Thurmond (16.6 points), and senior forward Emma Filiatreau, the 5th Region’s player of the year who averages 17.4 points and 10.3 rebounds.
Spoilers: Taylor County (25-6), led by Grace Bale (15.9 points), suffered an 18-point loss to the Banshees way back on opening day, but it has won 12 of its last 13 games.
@HLpreps pick: Bethlehem.
6th Region
Favorite: Mercy (21-9) remains formidable with standout forward Leah Macy (24.2 points and 12.8 rebounds) as the focal point, but the Jaguars have been without the playmaking presence of point guard Alyssa Murphy (14.3 points) for the last few games to rest an ailing knee. If Murphy can return to the lineup, Mercy can make a deep run.
Spoilers: Bullitt East (20-10) has lost twice to Mercy this season, but the defending region champs kept it relatively close last week in the 24th District title game, losing 56-48.
@HLpreps pick: Mercy.
7th Region
Favorite: Sacred Heart (29-3) aims for its third straight Sweet 16 championship, led by one of the top sophomores in the nation, Zakiyah Johnson (21.5 points). The Valkyries have demolished almost all of their in-state competition, but they got a scare in a narrow 54-53 win at George Rogers Clark on Feb. 7. Sacred Heart’s three losses came against nationally ranked out-of-state teams. Their toughest opposition in Kentucky might be within their own region.
Spoilers: Manual (26-2) has been the state’s No. 2 ranked team for much of the season and has region player of the year Jakayla Thompson (15.2 points). Sacred Heart has beaten the Crimsons twice this season, the last time a 76-50 win in the Louisville Invitational Tournament finals. Nevertheless, the Crimsons might be the best hope to stop a Valkyries three-peat.
@HLpreps pick: Sacred Heart.
8th Region
Favorite: Anderson County (26-6) graduated a Miss Basketball and has been going through some rebuilding pains, but it still poses a threat for the region title. Sophomore Lainey Johnson (22.5 points) and junior Jenna Satterly (13.8) lead the way.
Spoilers: Spencer County (24-8), led by Daveigh Reichenbach (16.2 points) and Ella Brown (12.7) showed the Bearcats are vulnerable with a 37-32 win over Anderson on Jan. 27. Owen County (20-10), led by Gracie Ferguson (13.9 points) and Haley Logan (13.5), reiterated that point by topping Anderson 50-41 in Lawrenceburg on Feb. 10.
@HLpreps pick: Anderson County.
9th Region
Favorite: Cooper (26-3) made a run to the Sweet 16 semifinals last season and has region player of the year and Miss Basketball candidate Whitney Lind (17.0 points). Cooper is undefeated against region foes this season, including a 61-48 win over Ryle in the 33rd District championship last week.
Spoilers: Covington Holy Cross (25-7) won the All “A” Classic state championship and has Julia Hunt (13.4 points and 9.4 rebounds) as a force inside. Notre Dame (18-10) topped Holy Cross in the 35th District finals and has Northern Kentucky commit Noelle Hubert (17.3 points). Ryle (22-8) showed it could play Cooper close in a 63-58 loss on Jan. 13.
@HLpreps pick: Cooper.
10th Region
Favorite: George Rogers Clark (24-7) has won the region title five out of the last six years and features Cincinnati signee Brianna Byars (15.1 points) and her younger sister Ciara (17.5), the team’s leading scorers who helped the Cardinals reach the state quarterfinals last season and came within a possession of upsetting No. 1 Sacred Heart this year.
Spoilers: Montgomery County (20-13), led by Hayden Barrier (16.7 points), might have the best shot, but the Indians have not had success against Clark yet this season, losing 69-47 on Jan. 3, 67-57 on Jan. 27 and 59-36 in last week’s 40th District finals.
@HLpreps pick: George Rogers Clark.
12th Region
Favorite: Southwestern (19-12) is the two-time defending region champion. The Warriors, if healthy, will be tough for anyone to topple. Four players average in double figures, led by sophomore Kinsley Molden (15.3 points), whose status for the regional will be key after suffering a midseason ankle injury. Ayden Smiddy (15.0 points) was recently named co-region player of the year.
Spoilers: Mercer County (18-2), led by Anna Drakeford (15.9 points), topped Southwestern in its regular-season finale and has been runner-up each of the last two years. Danville (28-2) has beaten some very good teams, including Mercer, but did not play Southwestern in the regular season. Pulaski County (25-6) lost to both Mercer and Southwestern in the regular season and will need to be at its best.
@HLpreps pick: Southwestern.
13th Region
Favorite: North Laurel (26-6) is led by region player of the year Emily Sizemore (16.7 points) and two other double-figure scorers, Brooke Nichelson (13.9) and Chloe McKnight (13.4). The Jags split with defending champion Corbin, taking a 76-75 loss to the Redhounds on Dec. 10 and avenging it with a 62-53 win on Feb. 10.
Spoiler: Knox Central (23-5) has one of the top scorers in the state with Halle Collins (27.2 points) and is looking for its first region title. Corbin (21-9) got hot at the right time last postseason and is hoping for a repeat with the core of its team back, including leading scorer Kallie Housley (16.8 points).
@HLpreps pick: North Laurel.
14th Region
Favorite: Leslie County (20-8) avenged one of its troubling midseason losses by beating the Hazard 73-50 for the 54th District title. Leading scorer Courtney Hoskins (17.0 points) was named co-region player of the year alongside Hazard’s Abby Maggard. Leslie hasn’t won the region since 2016.
Spoilers: Knott County Central (20-9), which features leading scorer Kylie Gayheart (17.2 points), has dropped two relatively close games to Leslie this season and could be primed for revenge. Owsley County (23-8), led by Carly Smith (19.0 points) and Addison Terry (15.3), rates a shot.
@HLpreps pick: Leslie County.
15th Region
Favorite: Pikeville (25-5) has been the class of the 15th since junior point guard Trinity Rowe (16.1 points) was a seventh-grader, winning four straight region titles. The Panthers are 29-0 against region competition over the last two seasons.
Spoilers: Lawrence County (27-5) boasts Kensley Feltner, the region’s player of the year and one of this year’s Miss Basketball favorites. Feltner leads the state in scoring at 29.6 points per game and recently became the fourth-leading career scorer in Kentucky high school girls’ basketball history with more than 4,000 points. Regardless, Lawrence hasn’t been able to solve Pikeville for more than two decades and lost 68-53 to the Panthers on Jan. 31.
@HLpreps pick: Pikeville.
16th Region
Favorite: Russell (21-11) had won back-to-back region titles before getting upset in the semifinals last year. Junior guard Shaelyn Steele leads the Red Devils with 20.3 points and 7.4 rebounds per game. Russell split its season series with all of its top challengers, Ashland Blazer, Boyd County and Rowan County. In each set, Russell lost the first game and won the rematch.
Spoilers: Rowan County (24-7) has the region’s player of the year and Murray State commit Haven Ford, but it has yet to reach a region finals during her career. Boyd County (19-9) is the defending region champ and recently got Audrey Biggs (14.0 points) back into the lineup after a summer injury. Ashland Blazer (22-7) is a dangerous team led by Kenleigh Woods (18.6 points) and Ella Sellars (17.0).
@HLpreps pick: Boyd County.
Girls’ Sweet 16
What: High school basketball state tournament
When: March 8-11
Where: Rupp Arena
View the bracket: bit.ly/3keW1mg
This story was originally published February 25, 2023 at 3:49 PM.
