Who will win the Kentucky Derby? Here's who the experts are picking for Saturday's race.
The Herald-Leader asked several horse racing aficionados to handicap Saturday’s Kentucky Derby.
Who will win this year's big race?
Justify? Mendelssohn? Good Magic? A long shot, perhaps?
Here are our experts' predictions:
John Clay
Herald-Leader
Win: Justify
Place: Mendelssohn
Show: Good Magic
Comment: Justify proves he’s as good as Bob Baffert thinks he is.
Jared Peck
Herald-Leader
Win: Justify
Place: Magnum Moon
Show: My Boy Jack
Comment: We can stop talking about the Curse of Apollo now with these two on the top of the board. If the pace is fast early, look out for Jack late.
Ben Roberts
Herald-Leader
Win: Justify
Place: Bolt d’Oro
Show: Hofburg
Comment: Bolt has often looked like the best colt in this crop, and Justify put him away with relative ease four weeks ago. Baffert’s latest is just too good.
Frank Angst
The Blood-Horse
Win: Mendelssohn
Place: Bolt d’Oro
Show: Justify
Comment: Winning a top Kentucky Derby prep by 18½ lengths is not something you see every day. Mendelssohn is a rare talent in a strong year.
Bill Finley
National turf writer
Win: Mendelssohn
Place: Bolt d’Oro
Show: Good Magic
Comment: While the competition may not have been the greatest, Mendelssohn’s win in the UAE Derby was as impressive a performance in a Derby prep as I have ever seen.
Jason Frakes
Courier Journal
Win: Good Magic
Place: Hofburg
Show: Justify
Comment: Good Magic has looked so outstanding this week that trainer Chad Brown even has a smile on his face.
Katie Gensler
Keeneland analyst
Win: Audible
Place: Mendelssohn
Show: Good Magic
Comment: Audible could take the Derby with his push-button speed and a favorable post position No. 5, plus the Florida Derby winner has good karma coming his way due to the generous donation to Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance from Audible.com.
Neil Greenberg
Washington Post
Win: Bolt d’Oro
Place: Audible
Show: Good Magic
Comment: The son of Medaglia d’Oro doesn't have to worry about the curse of Apollo plus has the speed and stamina required to excel at the classic distance of 1 1/4 miles. Read Greenberg's full analysis here.
Steve Haskin
The Blood-Horse
Win: Vino Rosso
Place: Good Magic
Show: Bolt d’Oro
Comment: I've had him ranked No. 1 since the Wood Memorial and see him improving off that race, especially with his pedigree, but concerned about the 18-post. Read Haskin's final Derby Dozen for 2018.
Melissa Hoppert
New York Times
Win: Good Magic
Place: Justify
Show: Hofburg
Comment: The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner has been working lights out at Churchill Downs, which has his normally stoic trainer smiling from ear to ear. At a nice price, that’s good enough magic for me.
Tom Leach
UK announcer
Win: Mendelssohn
Place: Hofburg
Show: Justify
Comment: $3 million Keeneland sales yearling justifies the price tag and wins the roses
Marty McGee
Daily Racing Form
Win: Good Magic
Place: Mendelssohn
Show: My Boy Jack
Comment: Looking for a huge run from the divisional champion in what shapes up as one of the deepest Derby fields in years.
Ray Paulick
Paulick Report
Win: Bolt d’Oro
Place: Combatant
Show: Justify
Comment: Despite recent trends, I think experience still matters when it comes to the Kentucky Derby, and Bolt d'Oro has proven to be a steady and top-class performer since beginning his career last August.
Jay Privman
Daily Racing Form
Win: Justify
Place: Hofburg
Show: Good Magic
Comment: Bye-bye Apollo.
Jennie Rees
WAVE-3
Win: Vino Rosso
Place: Good Magic
Show: Bolt d’Oro
Comment: Looking for horses with stamina pedigrees, proven class horses who raced at 2 — and offering value.
Kenny Rice
NBC
Win: Justify
Place: Audible
Show: Good Magic
Comment: Justify’s huge talent makes up for inexperience. Bob Baffert wins his fifth Derby
Tim Sullivan
Courier Journal
Win: Justify
Place: Bolt d’Oro
Show: Mendelssohn
Comment: On Wall Street, they say the trend is your friend. On Central Avenue, they say five straight winning favorites is not a coincidence.
Mike Watchmaker
Daily Racing Form
Win: Justify
Place: Bolt d’Oro
Show: Magnum Moon
Comment: The so-called “Curse of Apollo” ends Saturday when Justify runs back to his powerful Santa Anita Derby victory and proves to be simply better than his contemporaries.
Tim Wilkin
Albany Times Union
Win: Good Magic
Place: Bolt d’Oro
Show: Vino Rosso
Comment: No horse has looked better than Good Magic this week; trainer Chad Brown hasn’t stopped smiling.
Alicia Wincze Hughes
The Blood-Horse
Win: Good Magic
Place: Justify
Show: Mendelssohn
Comment: Good Magic has looked and trained tremendous since Keeneland and is on a similar form cycle as he was when he won the Breeders' Cup. His barn has never been so outwardly confident heading into a big race.
This story was originally published May 4, 2018 at 8:50 AM with the headline "Who will win the Kentucky Derby? Here's who the experts are picking for Saturday's race.."