Kentucky Derby

Who will win the Kentucky Derby? Here's who the experts are picking for Saturday's race.

Justify, with exercise rider Beto Gomez up, during a morning training session Wednesday at Churchill Downs.
Justify, with exercise rider Beto Gomez up, during a morning training session Wednesday at Churchill Downs. aslitz@herald-leader.com

The Herald-Leader asked several horse racing aficionados to handicap Saturday’s Kentucky Derby.

Who will win this year's big race?

Justify? Mendelssohn? Good Magic? A long shot, perhaps?

Here are our experts' predictions:

John Clay

Herald-Leader

Win: Justify

Place: Mendelssohn

Show: Good Magic

Comment: Justify proves he’s as good as Bob Baffert thinks he is.

Jared Peck

Herald-Leader

Win: Justify

Place: Magnum Moon

Show: My Boy Jack

Comment: We can stop talking about the Curse of Apollo now with these two on the top of the board. If the pace is fast early, look out for Jack late.

Ben Roberts

Herald-Leader

Win: Justify

Place: Bolt d’Oro

Show: Hofburg

Comment: Bolt has often looked like the best colt in this crop, and Justify put him away with relative ease four weeks ago. Baffert’s latest is just too good.

Frank Angst

The Blood-Horse

Win: Mendelssohn

Place: Bolt d’Oro

Show: Justify

Comment: Winning a top Kentucky Derby prep by 18½ lengths is not something you see every day. Mendelssohn is a rare talent in a strong year.

Bill Finley

National turf writer

Win: Mendelssohn

Place: Bolt d’Oro

Show: Good Magic

Comment: While the competition may not have been the greatest, Mendelssohn’s win in the UAE Derby was as impressive a performance in a Derby prep as I have ever seen.

Jason Frakes

Courier Journal

Win: Good Magic

Place: Hofburg

Show: Justify

Comment: Good Magic has looked so outstanding this week that trainer Chad Brown even has a smile on his face.

Katie Gensler

Keeneland analyst

Win: Audible

Place: Mendelssohn

Show: Good Magic

Comment: Audible could take the Derby with his push-button speed and a favorable post position No. 5, plus the Florida Derby winner has good karma coming his way due to the generous donation to Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance from Audible.com.

Neil Greenberg

Washington Post

Win: Bolt d’Oro

Place: Audible

Show: Good Magic

Comment: The son of Medaglia d’Oro doesn't have to worry about the curse of Apollo plus has the speed and stamina required to excel at the classic distance of 1 1/4 miles. Read Greenberg's full analysis here.

Steve Haskin

The Blood-Horse

Win: Vino Rosso

Place: Good Magic

Show: Bolt d’Oro

Comment: I've had him ranked No. 1 since the Wood Memorial and see him improving off that race, especially with his pedigree, but concerned about the 18-post. Read Haskin's final Derby Dozen for 2018.

Melissa Hoppert

New York Times

Win: Good Magic

Place: Justify

Show: Hofburg

Comment: The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner has been working lights out at Churchill Downs, which has his normally stoic trainer smiling from ear to ear. At a nice price, that’s good enough magic for me.

Tom Leach

UK announcer

Win: Mendelssohn

Place: Hofburg

Show: Justify

Comment: $3 million Keeneland sales yearling justifies the price tag and wins the roses

Marty McGee

Daily Racing Form

Win: Good Magic

Place: Mendelssohn

Show: My Boy Jack

Comment: Looking for a huge run from the divisional champion in what shapes up as one of the deepest Derby fields in years.

Ray Paulick

Paulick Report

Win: Bolt d’Oro

Place: Combatant

Show: Justify

Comment: Despite recent trends, I think experience still matters when it comes to the Kentucky Derby, and Bolt d'Oro has proven to be a steady and top-class performer since beginning his career last August.

Jay Privman

Daily Racing Form

Win: Justify

Place: Hofburg

Show: Good Magic

Comment: Bye-bye Apollo.

Jennie Rees

WAVE-3

Win: Vino Rosso

Place: Good Magic

Show: Bolt d’Oro

Comment: Looking for horses with stamina pedigrees, proven class horses who raced at 2 — and offering value.

Kenny Rice

NBC

Win: Justify

Place: Audible

Show: Good Magic

Comment: Justify’s huge talent makes up for inexperience. Bob Baffert wins his fifth Derby

Tim Sullivan

Courier Journal

Win: Justify

Place: Bolt d’Oro

Show: Mendelssohn

Comment: On Wall Street, they say the trend is your friend. On Central Avenue, they say five straight winning favorites is not a coincidence.

Read Next

Mike Watchmaker

Daily Racing Form

Win: Justify

Place: Bolt d’Oro

Show: Magnum Moon

Comment: The so-called “Curse of Apollo” ends Saturday when Justify runs back to his powerful Santa Anita Derby victory and proves to be simply better than his contemporaries.

Tim Wilkin

Albany Times Union

Win: Good Magic

Place: Bolt d’Oro

Show: Vino Rosso

Comment: No horse has looked better than Good Magic this week; trainer Chad Brown hasn’t stopped smiling.

Alicia Wincze Hughes

The Blood-Horse

Win: Good Magic

Place: Justify

Show: Mendelssohn

Comment: Good Magic has looked and trained tremendous since Keeneland and is on a similar form cycle as he was when he won the Breeders' Cup. His barn has never been so outwardly confident heading into a big race.

Read Next

This story was originally published May 4, 2018 at 8:50 AM with the headline "Who will win the Kentucky Derby? Here's who the experts are picking for Saturday's race.."

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