It’s never too soon for Kentucky Derby odds. A local trainer has the early favorite.
The Kentucky Derby is still six months away, but the early odds are already here.
The William Hill sportsbook put out its first batch of Derby futures odds last month, and that sheet was updated this week following recent developments that included the running of the $2 million Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Keeneland on Friday.
In that race, Essential Quality — trained by Louisville native Brad Cox — won by three-quarters of a length at 7-2 to stay undefeated in his young career. He also established himself as the early Derby favorite for Cox, who won a total of four Breeders’ Cup races over the weekend. The 40-year-old trainer grew up just a few blocks from Churchill Downs and has never had a starter in his hometown Kentucky Derby.
Success in the Juvenile does not equal success in the Derby, however, and the next six months is near an eternity in horse racing time. Since the Juvenile was first run in 1984, only two horses — Street Sense and Nyquist — have won that race and the following year’s Derby. Only six Derby winners in that span have even run in the Juvenile the year before. That said, Essential Quality is the clear class of this 2-year-old crop, as of now, and recent Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winners have gone on to pretty good success the following year. The past five Juvenile champs have ended up in the following year’s Derby, and none of those horses finished worse than sixth on Derby Day, with Nyquist winning the race in 2015 and Good Magic finishing second in 2017.
Here are the Derby contenders with the shortest current odds for 2021, according to the latest list from the William Hill sportsbook.
Top Derby contenders
Essential Quality (10-1): The only horse on the latest William Hill odds list at shorter than 40-1, Essential Quality claimed the mantle of early Derby favorite with his victory in the Juvenile over the weekend. He’s now a perfect 3-for-3 and already has a victory at Churchill Downs, his home track. The son of Tapit would also likely be a target of casual bettors if he makes the Derby starting gate, given his gray coat and local connections. “I do feel the sky’s the limit for this colt,” his trainer, Brad Cox, said after Friday’s victory, noting that Essential Quality should love any added distance moving forward.
Jackie’s Warrior (40-1): Going into last weekend, Jackie’s Warrior, at 15-1, was a slight early Derby favorite over Essential Quality. The son of Maclean’s Music went off as an odds-on favorite in the Juvenile but finished fourth after chasing a hot pace up front. Though he was 4-for-4 with two Grade 1 victories going into the Juvenile, he’d never raced around two turns before Friday and there were still questions about how far he could go. Trainer Steve Asmussen acknowledged after the Juvenile that those questions will linger, but he chalked up the defeat as more a matter of that early pace than an indictment of Jackie’s Warrior’s ability to go longer distances. “He accomplished a lot coming into here,” he said. “We obviously planned on winning — ended up fourth. But the pace makes the race, and it did not set up well for us today.”
Highly Motivated (45-1): This Chad Brown trainee was 125-1 on the William Hill futures sheet going into the weekend. He didn’t run in the Juvenile, but he did win the Nyquist Stakes — a 6½-furlong race on the Keeneland undercard Friday — by more than 4 lengths. Highly Motivated still hasn’t run beyond that distance in three career starts, but he’ll be worth watching in the coming months. His sire is Into Mischief, the sire of Authentic, this year’s Kentucky Derby champ and the winner of the Breeders’ Cup Classic on Saturday.
Hot Rod Charlie (50-1): The son of 2013 Preakness winner Oxbow was 140-1 on the Derby futures sheet last week and went off at odds of 94-1 in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile on Friday, finishing second as the longest shot in that race. Before that, Hot Rod Charlie won for the first time — going a mile on the Santa Anita dirt — after two starts on the turf. His trainer is Doug O’Neill, who has already won the Kentucky Derby with I’ll Have Another and Nyquist.
Dr. Schivel (50-1): The shortest odds for a horse that didn’t run this past weekend, Dr. Schivel won the Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity in September at 7 furlongs and is not expected to run again until his 3-year-old campaign begins under the tutelage of trainer Mark Glatt. His sire is Violence, a star 2-year-old whose career ended due to injury early in his 3-year-old season.
Jaxon Traveler (60-1): Another early Derby contender that didn’t run over the weekend, Jaxon Traveler is a Maryland-bred trained by Steve Asmussen, who is 0-for-21 in the Derby, the most all-time starts of any trainer without a victory in the race. The son of Munnings is 2-for-2 this year with both of those races coming at Maryland tracks and going 6 furlongs.
Other Derby contenders
There are eight more 2-year-olds with odds of shorter than 100-1 on the latest William Hill futures list, and all of those horses are listed at 75-1. Some interesting contenders among that group include the Asmussen-trained Cazadero, a son of Street Sense who won his first two races at Churchill before a fifth-place finish behind Jackie’s Warrior this fall; Get Her Number — a son of Florida Derby winner Dialed In and trained by Peter Miller — the winner of the Grade 1 American Pharoah Stakes, his first start on dirt, at 1 1/16 miles in September; and Olympiad, a son of Speightstown and trained by Bill Mott, the Hall of Famer who finally won his first Derby last year with Country House. Olympiad broke his maiden at Saratoga in September (and he certainly has a name befitting a Derby winner).
The third, fourth and fifth choices in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile on Friday all saw their standing on the Derby futures list plummet after that race. Classier, trained by Bob Baffert, went from 30-1 to 125-1 after finishing eighth; Sittin On Go, trained by Dale Romans, went from 35-1 to 100-1 after finishing ninth; and Reinvestment Risk, trained by Chad Brown, went from 40-1 to 100-1 after finishing 10th.
Classier’s tumble in the odds means no 2-year-old in Baffert’s barn has Derby futures odds of shorter than 100-1. Two have that number next to their name: Savile Row and Spielberg.
Savile Row is a son of Quality Road and the winner of his debut race Sunday at Del Mar. Spielberg — a son of Union Rags — broke his maiden on the fourth try with a win at Del Mar last week.
Keepmeinmind, the 30-1 shot that charged from last place in the 14-horse Juvenile field to finish third — just 2 lengths behind Essential Quality — wasn’t even among the 119 selections on last week’s William Hill futures sheet. This week, he’s on the list at 125-1 odds. The son of Laoban is trained by Robertino Diodoro and is still winless — with two seconds and a third — in three career starts.
Something else to keep in mind: this year’s Kentucky Derby winner, Authentic, hadn’t even made his racing debut at the time of last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Authentic ran for the first time Nov. 9, 2019, exactly a year ago Monday.
This story was originally published November 11, 2020 at 8:09 AM.
