Kentucky Derby Watch 2021: A detailed look at the top contenders for this year’s race
UPDATE: The March 1 edition of the Herald-Leader’s Kentucky Derby Watch can be found at this link.
Believe it or not, the Kentucky Derby is only three months away.
Though we’re just a few months removed from the 2020 Derby, which was pushed to September because of the COVID-19 pandemic, the road to the 2021 edition of the race is well underway. Two major early Derby preps were held over the weekend, and the first 50-point race on the prep schedule is less than two weeks away.
Though new contenders will surely emerge in the coming weeks, several possible 3-year-old stars have already been identified. The Derby is scheduled for May 1, and six-time winning trainer Bob Baffert has a few of the top early choices. So does Louisville native Brad Cox, who has never had a Derby starter but hopes to bring the 2-year-old champion, Essential Quality, along with a few others, to his hometown track.
There’s also a new rule this year related to Lasix, the race-day medication used to prevent pulmonary bleeding. Its use has been widespread in American racing, but a current attempt at sweeping medication reforms in the sport will include a ban of Lasix for Kentucky Derby starters. In support of that rule, Churchill Downs has decided not to award any Derby qualifying points for a horse that runs on Lasix during a Derby prep race. So far, it hasn’t had much of an effect on the points standings, but it will be worth watching between now and Derby Day.
It’s obviously early, but here’s the latest on 10 top contenders — and additional info on 10 more promising 3-year-olds — as the calendar flips to February, which will be a busy month for Derby hopefuls.
The William Hill sportsbook has also provided its latest futures odds (updated after this past weekend’s races), and the Herald-Leader will continue to update this top-10 list as the road to the 2021 Kentucky Derby continues.
Caddo River
William Hill odds: 15-1
Why he’s here: Caddo River finished second in his first two starts — both in New York — before breaking through with an impressive 9½-length victory in a maiden race at 1 mile over the Churchill Downs track in November. He proved that run was no fluke with his first start of 2021, a dominating, gate-to-wire victory by more than 10 lengths in the Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn Park (also run at the 1-mile distance). Caddo River earned a 92 Beyer Speed Figure for that romp, and he looked like he left plenty in the tank.
Connections: The first colt on this list trained by the red-hot Brad Cox, a Louisville native who won four Breeders’ Cup races in the fall. Cox has never had a starter in his hometown Kentucky Derby — he grew up just blocks from Churchill Downs and won the 2018 Oaks with star filly Monomoy Girl — but he figures to be a major factor in this year’s race. Caddo River — a homebred for the Arkansas-based Shortleaf Stable — has had Florent Geroux aboard for both of his dominating victories.
Family ties: Caddo River is a son of Hard Spun, who finished second in both the Kentucky Derby and the Breeders’ Cup Classic in 2007. The 3-year-old colt has A.P. Indy on his dam’s side of the family.
What’s next? Given his connections, Caddo River figures to stay in Arkansas as the Derby trail continues. The Rebel Stakes on March 13 is the 50-point race on the Oaklawn schedule, which culminates with the Arkansas Derby on April 10.
Concert Tour
William Hill odds: 10-1
Why he’s here: At this stage in the Derby prep season, some contenders land on lists like this one based more on promise than results. Concert Tour is such a colt. He has raced only once, a dominating, front-running victory in a maiden race at Santa Anita on Jan. 15. That race came at just 6 furlongs, but Concert Tour is well-bred for the Kentucky Derby distance and has some all-star connections in his corner. Derby Future Wager bettors made him the fourth choice (at 16-1) in the most recent edition of the pool.
Connections: He’s trained by Bob Baffert. Perhaps you’ve heard of him? The winner of six Kentucky Derbys — including last year’s with Authentic — Baffert would break a tie with Ben Jones for most Derby wins of all time if he returns to the winner’s circle again. Joel Rosario rode Concert Tour in his debut race and has been among the nation’s very best jockeys for more than a decade, with a win in the 2013 Kentucky Derby aboard Orb. And Concert Tour is a homebred for Gary and Mary West, who have had five Derby starters over the past 28 years, including a near victory with the DQ’d Maximum Security two years ago.
Family ties: Concert Tour is a son of 2007 Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense and has leading stallion Tapit for his damsire.
What’s next? It’s not yet clear where Baffert will send Concert Tour for his next start. The Hall of Fame trainer likes to separate his top Derby contenders during prep season, but it looks like he’ll have more horses than race options in 2021.
Essential Quality
William Hill odds: 7-1
Why he’s here: That’s simple enough. He’s the 2-year-old champion from 2020. Essential Quality capped a terrific first season by winning the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Keeneland in November. He also won the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity at the Lexington track a few weeks earlier and broke his maiden in his first try — on the Kentucky Derby undercard at Churchill Downs, no less — a few weeks before that.
Connections: Another colt out of the barn of Brad Cox, who has a deep and talented group for the 2021 Derby. “I do feel the sky’s the limit for this colt,” Cox said after the Breeders’ Cup win, the Kentucky Derby already in mind. Luis Saez — jockey of the disqualified Maximum Security in the 2019 Derby — has been aboard for both of Essential Quality’s last two starts. The 3-year-old star is a Godolphin homebred.
Family ties: He’s a son of Tapit, the three-time leading sire in North America who has fathered three Belmont Stakes winners (but no Derby winners, so far). Essential Quality’s damsire is Elusive Quality, the father of Smarty Jones.
What’s next? Cox announced last week that he would make his 3-year-old debut in the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park on Feb. 15.
Fire At Will
William Hill odds: No current odds
Why he’s here: Fire At Will won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf in November at 30-1 odds. All four of his previous starts have been scheduled for the turf, but he won over a sloppy Saratoga main track — his only race on dirt — in the fall, and his connections are considering giving him a chance at the Kentucky Derby prep series if he trains well over the dirt surface this winter. He’s looked good so far in that regard, putting in a series of impressive works in Florida last month.
Connections: Michigan-born trainer Mike Maker — a longtime D. Wayne Lukas assistant — has had 10 Derby starters but has never finished better than eighth place, the most starters by a trainer in Derby history without a top-three finish. Three Diamonds Farm — run by Kirk Wycoff, a managing partner of a Philadelphia-based private equity firm — has never had a Derby starter. Fire At Will has had four jockeys in his four races, with Ricardo Santana Jr. aboard for the Breeders’ Cup victory.
Family ties: Fire At Will is a son of Declaration of War, who was based in Europe and nearly won the 2013 Breeders’ Cup Classic before heading to a successful stud career. His damsire is Kitten’s Joy, the former turf star and a top sire over the past 15 years.
What’s next? No plans for a 3-year-old debut appear to be set for Fire At Will, who continues to train well at Gulfstream Park in Florida. If his connections do opt for the Derby trail, it looks like the Fountain of Youth Stakes on Feb. 27 will be his next start.
Greatest Honour
William Hill odds: 16-1
Why he’s here: It took Greatest Honour four tries to break his maiden before finally coming through with his first victory in late December, an impressive win from off the pace — his typical running style — at 1 1/16 miles at Gulfstream Park. He made his 3-year-old debut Saturday with an even more impressive run — a come-from-behind romp by 5¾ lengths in the Grade 3 Holly Bull Stakes at Gulfstream. Greatest Honour, who finished just behind Caddo River in two of his early races, earned an 89 Beyer for the Holy Bull victory.
Connections: Lexington native Shug McGaughey, who turned 70 years old last month, trains Greatest Honour. The Hall of Fame trainer won his first Kentucky Derby eight years ago with Orb. Jose Ortiz, who was second in the Derby on Good Magic three years ago, has been aboard Greatest Honour for three of his five starts, including the Holy Bull win. Greatest Honour is a homebred for Courtlandt Farm.
Family ties: He’s another son of Tapit, and his damsire is multiple Grade 1-winner Street Cry, who was the father of Winx, Zenyatta and Street Sense, among other star Thoroughbreds.
What’s next?: McGaughey said immediately after the Holy Bull win Saturday that he’s looking ahead to the Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream on Feb. 27, though he noted that — if he thinks Greatest Honour needs a little more time before his next start — he wouldn’t mind waiting until the Florida Derby in late March.
Keepmeinmind
William Hill odds: 40-1
Why he’s here: Keepmeinmind came from the back of the pack into a slow pace to win the Kentucky Jockey Club — the premier 2-year-old race at Churchill Downs — in late November. That’s impressive, though the race time and speed figures ended up on the slow side. He also ran third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile — with much faster numbers there — and finished second to Essential Quality in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity before that. Quite simply, he hasn’t done anything to wow us yet, but he’s always around at the end, and he should love added distances. Perhaps he’s only scratched the surface of his talent? Early bettors seem to think so. Keepmeinmind was the fifth choice (at 19-1) on the most recent Derby Future Wager.
Connections: Canadian-born Robertino Diodoro has been training for more than 25 years and has never had a Kentucky Derby starter. David Cohen is Keepmeinmind’s regular jockey. The 36-year-old has never had a Derby mount. Keepmeinmind is owned by Kevin Moody’s Cypress Creek LLC and Arnold Bennewith.
Family ties: Keepmeinmind is from the first crop of foals by emerging stallion Laoban — a son of Uncle Mo — and the 3-year-old colt’s damsire is Victory Gallop, who finished second to Real Quiet in the 1998 Kentucky Derby and Preakness before defeating him at the wire in the Belmont Stakes.
What’s next? The Southwest Stakes on Feb. 15 at Oaklawn Park — where Diodoro has been a top trainer in recent years — seems to be the spot where Keepmeinmind will make his 3-year-old debut.
Life Is Good
William Hill odds: 8-1
Why he’s here: This unbeaten colt made his first start with a sensational 9 ½-length victory going 6 ½ furlongs at Del Mar in November before making his stakes debut — a victory in the Grade 3 Sham Stakes at Santa Anita last month, earning a 101 Beyer for the effort — to cement his status as a top early Derby contender. Life Is Good, who has gone straight to the front in both races, drifted some in the stretch of the Sham and allowed Medina Spirit to close within three-quarters of a length at the wire, but he was under a hand ride until the final stages of that race. In the most recent Derby Future Wager pool, Life Is Good was the top individual betting choice at 7-1.
Connections: The top colt out of Bob Baffert’s barn heading into 2021. Baffert has 33 career Derby starters and has had multiple starters in 10 editions of the race. Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith — winner of two Kentucky Derbys — will be aboard if Life Is Good makes it to the Derby starting gate. Gary and Mary West bred Life Is Good, who is owned by China Horse Club and WinStar Farm and went for $525,000 at the Keeneland yearling sale. (Those connections were also on the ownership team for Justify three years ago).
Family ties: Life Is Good is the son of Into Mischief, who also sired Authentic, last year’s Kentucky Derby winner, and was the leading sire in North America in 2019. His damsire is Distorted Humor, a leading broodmare sire who was also the father of Kentucky Derby winner Funny Cide.
What’s next? The San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita on March 6 appears to be next on his race calendar.
Medina Spirit
William Hill odds: 20-1
Why he’s here: Medina Spirit won his debut (at 5½ furlongs) in December and then got right back to the track three weeks later, where he finished within a length of stablemate Life Is Good in the Grade 3 Sham Stakes. On Saturday in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes, Medina Spirit set the early pace and showed great toughness in the stretch to hold off Roman Centurion and Hot Rod Charlie in a three-horse photo finish, earning a 91 Beyer. Trainer Bob Baffert said afterward that the effort reminded him of Silver Charm, his first Kentucky Derby winner 24 years ago.
Connections: Yet another out of the Baffert barn. Guatemala native Abel Cedillo, who has never had a Kentucky Derby mount, has been aboard for all three starts. The Florida-bred is owned by Zedan Racing Stables, the Lexington-based racing venture of Saudi Arabian businessman Amr F. Zedan.
Family ties: The son of Protonico has 2011 Blue Grass Stakes winner Brilliant Speed, seventh in that year’s Kentucky Derby, as his damsire.
What’s next?: It’s not yet clear where Medina Spirit will make his next start. If Life Is Good does indeed stay in California, perhaps he’ll be shipped to Oaklawn Park, a strategy Baffert has employed in the past to keep his top Derby contenders separated.
Prevalence
William Hill odds: 16-1
Why he’s here: Is it too early to put Prevalence on a top 10 list like this one, just a few days removed from his first race? Perhaps. But here he is, a testament to just how impressive he looked in that debut a little more than a week ago, as well as his bloodlines and long-term promise. Prevalence went off at 7-1 odds as one of 12 starters in a 7-furlong, $50,000 maiden race at Gulfstream Park, where he took over in the turn and absolutely obliterated the field in the stretch with jockey Tyler Gaffalione simply along for the ride.
Connections: Trainer Brendan Walsh finished ninth with his first Kentucky Derby starter, Plus Que Parfait, in 2019 and looked to have one of the race favorites with Maxfield last year, before injury sidelined that colt from Derby contention. Gaffalione won the 2019 Preakness with War of Will. Prevalence is a Godolphin homebred.
Family ties: His sire is star stallion and two-time Breeders’ Cup Classic runner-up Medaglia d’Oro, who counts Rachel Alexandra among his offspring. Prevalence’s damsire is 2004 Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Ghostzapper.
What’s next?: Walsh has not yet announced plans for Prevalence’s second career start.
Senor Buscador
William Hill odds: 40-1
Why he’s here: Senor Buscador has been mighty impressive in his two races so far, coming from well off the pace in both to score clear victories. Check out the video of his most recent run — the $200,000 Springboard Mile in December — and watch Senor Buscador circle the field from the very back of the back to win going away. It’s not exactly a style that has been employed by recent Kentucky Derby winners — the DQ-aided Country House is the exception — but it’s certainly fun to watch, and the Senor obviously has the turn of foot to be competitive in this group. He ran both of his first two races on Lasix, so he didn’t accumulate any Derby points for the Springboard Mile score.
Connections: New Mexico-based trainer Todd Fincher — a former jockey — has never had a Kentucky Derby starter, coming close with 2018 Sunland Derby winner Runaway Ghost, who was ultimately removed from Derby consideration due to injury. Owner Joe Peacock Jr. bred Senor Buscador with his father and also owned Runaway Ghost. Luis Quinonez — fifth on Suddenbreakingnews in his only Derby five years ago — is Senor Buscador’s regular jockey.
Family ties: Senor Buscador is the son of 2003 Horse of the Year Mineshaft and is from the same dam, Rose’s Desert, as Runaway Ghost.
What’s next? It seems like Fincher is leaning toward the Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds on Feb. 13 for Senor Buscador’s 3-year-old debut, though the Southwest Stakes in Arkansas on Feb. 15 is also a possibility.
Ten more to watch
Since a maximum of 20 entrants can run in the Kentucky Derby, here are 10 additional contenders to keep an eye on as the prep season heats up (with the latest William Hill odds):
▪ Bezos (20-1) is the first unraced horse to be included in the Derby Future Wager pool — he finished at 26-1 odds there last month — so he deserves a mention here. The son of Empire Maker is trained by Bob Baffert.
▪ Brooklyn Strong (65-1) looked tough winning the Grade 2 Remsen over a sloppy track in New York in December but will miss this weekend’s Withers Stakes with an illness. The New York-bred son of Wicked Strong is a gelding and sold for just $5,000 last April.
▪ Highly Motivated (30-1) has yet to run beyond 6 ½ furlongs for trainer Chad Brown, but he’s been mighty impressive at the shorter distances, earning a 96 Beyer for his victory in the Nyquist Stakes on the Breeders’ Cup undercard in November. The son of Into Mischief might be headed for next month’s Fountain of Youth Stakes.
▪ Hot Rod Charlie (40-1) finished second at 94-1 odds in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile before coming in third in that three-horse photo finish in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes won by Medina Spirit on Saturday. The son of 2013 Preakness winner Oxbow is trained by two-time Kentucky Derby winner Doug O’Neill.
▪ Jackie’s Warrior (40-1) finished fourth as the odds-on favorite in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in November. He was 4-for-4 for Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen before that, but there have been questions about his ability to handle longer distances. He’ll make his 3-year-old debut in the Southwest Stakes in a couple of weeks.
▪ Mandaloun (35-1) is yet another Brad Cox-trained colt. The son of Into Mischief won his first two races at Keeneland and Churchill Downs before finishing a close third to Midnight Bourbon as the 4-5 favorite in the Lecomte Stakes a couple weeks ago.
▪ Midnight Bourbon (45-1) is also trained by Steve Asmussen — 0-for-21 in the Kentucky Derby so far — and won the Lecomte Stakes from gate to wire after setting a slow pace. His sire is Tiznow.
▪ Roman Centurion (40-1) finished fourth behind Life Is Good in his debut, broke his maiden next time out, and came from the back of the pack to finish second, a neck behind Medina Spirit, in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes on Saturday. The son of Empire Maker is trained by Simon Callaghan.
▪ Tarantino (125-1) showed some grit Saturday to finish second in the Holy Bull at 26-1 odds. It was his first race on the dirt after having success on turf as a 2-year-old. The son of Pioneerof the Nile — sire of American Pharoah — was in Bob Baffert’s barn until a few months ago and is now trained by Rodolphe Brisset.
▪ The Great One (45-1) raced on and off the turf as a 2-year-old before making his 2021 debut with a rousing, 14-length victory to break his maiden in his fifth career start. Trainer Doug O’Neill also trained The Great One’s father, Nyquist, who won the 2016 Kentucky Derby.
This story was originally published February 1, 2021 at 7:38 AM.
