Kentucky Derby Watch 2021: Reassessing the top contenders after a busy weekend
Two of the biggest prep races yet on the 2021 Kentucky Derby trail went down Saturday, and there were no surprises.
Essential Quality ran away in the slop for a victory in the Southwest Stakes in his winning return to the track after being off since his Breeders’ Cup Juvenile triumph last fall. Meanwhile, Greatest Honour continued to prove himself as the class of the Florida contingent with a rousing stretch run in the Fountain of Youth Stakes.
Things will only heat up from here.
Four 50-point prep races will be run over the next two weekends — including possible Derby favorite Life Is Good’s next start in the San Felipe on Saturday — before the 100-point races begin with the Louisiana Derby on March 20.
It’s still early, but here’s the latest look at 10 top contenders for this year’s Derby — and additional info on 10 others to watch — as the prep calendar turns to what should be an eventful March.
The William Hill sportsbook has provided its latest futures odds (updated after this past weekend’s races), and the Herald-Leader will continue to update this top-10 list as the road to the 2021 Kentucky Derby continues.
Caddo River
William Hill odds: 15-1
Trainer: Brad Cox
Sire: Hard Spun
Why he’s here: Caddo River has won his last two races by a combined 19½ lengths, including a 10-length gate-to-wire romp in the Smarty Jones Stakes on Jan. 22. Before that, he broke his maiden over the Churchill Downs track with a 9½-length victory. And before that, he finished ahead of Fountain of Youth winner Greatest Honour twice in the first two career races for each colt. The recent winter weather forced Caddo River to move from Arkansas to New Orleans, where he fired off a bullet workout — 5 furlongs in :59.60 — on Feb. 20. He should be well-rested and ready for his next start, and — while Essential Quality is getting the most attention in Cox’s crowded barn — don’t be surprised if Caddo River turns out to be the Louisville native’s top contender on Derby Day.
What’s next?: The Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park on March 13.
Concert Tour
William Hill odds: 10-1
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Sire: Street Sense
Why he’s here: Concert Tour has raced only twice and has not yet stretched out beyond 7 furlongs, but he hasn’t done anything wrong to this point. The son of 2007 Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense won his debut in January and came back Feb. 6 to catch stablemate Freedom Fighter at the wire in the Grade 2 San Vicente. Concert Tour has the Derby connections — 2013 winner Joel Rosario has been aboard both times — and a pedigree (Tapit is his damsire) that should suit the distance. His next race — his first outside of California and first going two turns, against elite company — should be telling.
What’s next?: The Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park on March 13.
Essential Quality
William Hill odds: 4-1
Trainer: Brad Cox
Sire: Tapit
Why he’s here: Essential Quality is the reigning champion in this 3-year-old crop, and he didn’t do anything in his 2021 debut Saturday to relinquish that claim. The gray son of Tapit rolled to a 4 1/4-length victory on a rainy, foggy day at Oaklawn Park in the Southwest Stakes, his first start since winning the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Keeneland last fall. Essential Quality is now 4-for-4 on his career and clearly one of the favorites for this year’s Derby. He broke his maiden on Derby Day at Churchill Downs last year, and the Godolphin homebred has done nothing wrong since.
What’s next?: Essential Quality will head to Fair Grounds while Louisville native Brad Cox figures out his final move before the Kentucky Derby, with his next start likely coming in either the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland on April 3 or the Arkansas Derby back at Oaklawn Park on April 10.
Greatest Honour
William Hill odds: 5-1
Trainer: Shug McGaughey
Sire: Tapit
Why he’s here: Greatest Honour won the Holy Bull Stakes in convincing fashion to begin his 3-year-old campaign but looked like a beaten favorite late in the Fountain of Youth Stakes on Saturday. That was before he unleashed a spirited run in the stretch under jockey Jose Ortiz to win by 1 1/2 lengths. He was well off the pace in that one — his typical running style — was was still several lengths off the lead when coming around the far turn. Once he got straightened out, he looked every bit the part of a top Kentucky Derby contender. Lexington native Shug McGaughey says Greatest Honour should get better with added distance, and he’s using the same prep schedule here that got Orb to the Derby winner’s circle eight years ago.
What’s next?: The Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park on March 27.
Hot Rod Charlie
William Hill odds: 30-1
Trainer: Doug O’Neill
Sire: Oxbow
Why he’s here: Hot Rod Charlie surprised with a second-place finish (at 94-1!) in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last fall and ran a fine race in his 3-year-old debut, finishing third behind Medina Spirit and Roman Centurion in a blanket finish in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes on Jan. 30. Two-time Derby winner Doug O’Neill was pleased with that effort, and while Hot Rod Charlie is currently positioned toward the bottom of this top-10 list, he seems to be improving from race to race and can make a big impression with his next start against what should be a talented field.
What’s next?: The Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds on March 20.
Keepmeinmind
William Hill odds: 28-1
Trainer: Robertino Diodoro
Sire: Laoban
Why he’s here: Keepmeinmind has yet to race in 2021, but he did enough as a 2-year-old to keep him in the top 10 … for now. He finished second to Elusive Quality in Keeneland’s top juvenile race before finishing third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in the fall. Keepmeinmind capped his 2-year-old campaign with a come-from-the-back victory in the Kentucky Jockey Club — Churchill Downs’ annual showcase for juveniles — at the end of November. He hasn’t raced since, with winter weather throwing a wrench in his training and prep schedule. He’ll get some top-flight competition in his 3-year-old debut a couple weeks from now.
What’s next?: The Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park on March 13.
Life Is Good
William Hill odds: 9-2
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Sire: Into Mischief
Why he’s here: There’s a long way to go, but Life Is Good is the slight Derby favorite in the eyes of the early bettors, who have made him the top individual choice in each of the Future Wager pools so far this year. He certainly fits the profile of a Derby winner on paper. Baffert trains, Hall of Famer Mike Smith is his regular jockey, and he’s a son of Into Mischief: the sire of Authentic, last year’s Derby and Breeders’ Cup Classic winner. Life Is Good has also been great on the track — albeit in just two starts so far — and turned in a class-best 101 Beyer Speed Figure in his victory in the Grade 3 Sham Stakes on Jan. 2. Until someone proves otherwise, he looks to be the class of this year’s West Coast contingent.
What’s next?: The San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita Park on March 6.
Mandaloun
William Hill odds: 16-1
Trainer: Brad Cox
Sire: Into Mischief
Why he’s here: Mandaloun also shares the same sire as last year’s Derby winner, and he’s yet another top contender out of the barn of Louisville native Brad Cox, the red-hot trainer who has never had a starter in the Kentucky Derby. Mandaloun stayed right off the leaders — including the talented Midnight Bourbon — and took over in the stretch to win last month’s Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes, his first race with blinkers. He looks to have the pedigree to go longer — the great Empire Maker is his damsire — he’s put up one of the best Beyers among this 3-year-old class so far, and he’s already won at Churchill Downs. Florent Geroux, who also rides Caddo River, has been aboard for all four starts so far.
What’s next?: The Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds on March 20.
Medina Spirit
William Hill odds: 16-1
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Sire: Protonico
Why he’s here: Medina Spirit finished within a length of star stablemate Life Is Good in the Sham before coming back with a gritty victory in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes four weeks later, holding off Roman Centurion and Hot Rod Charlie in an exciting stretch run. Baffert said after that one that Medina Spirit reminded him of Silver Charm, the trainer’s first Derby winner. He turned in a Feb. 20 workout that raised some concern among his early backers, but he returned Saturday with a much better effort. His rematch this weekend with Life Is Good will be one to watch.
What’s next?:The San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita Park on March 6.
Proxy
William Hill odds: 45-1
Trainer: Michael Stidham
Sire: Tapit
Why he’s here: Proxy was the runner-up to Midnight Bourbon in the Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes and took another step forward with a runner-up finish to Mandaloun in the Grade 2 Risen Star a couple of weeks ago. The Godolphin homebred is yet another son of Tapit, and Proxy’s dam, Panty Raid, was a $1 million earner who won multiple Grade 1 races as well as the Grade 2 Black-Eyed Susan Stakes in 2007. He should do well at the longer distances, and he’s already turned in the fourth-best Beyer in this group with his 97 in the Risen Star. Trainer Michael Stidham, 63, has had all kinds of success in a career that has spanned more than 40 years, but he has never had a Kentucky Derby starter.
What’s next?: The Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds on March 20.
Ten more to watch
▪ Collaborate (50-1) seems to have worked his way into the Derby picture for Three Chimneys Farm and trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. with a 12 1/2-length maiden victory at 1 mile on the Fountain of Youth undercard Saturday. The son of Into Mischief earned a 90 Beyer for that win and could be headed to the Florida Derby next.
▪ Freedom Fighter (50-1) will have to answer some distance questions, but the son of Violence almost beat stablemate Concert Tour in the San Vicente last month and fired off a bullet workout (5 furlongs in :59.2) at Santa Anita on Saturday morning. Bob Baffert will send him to the Gotham Stakes in New York this weekend.
▪ Highly Motivated (20-1) is finally ready to make his 3-year-old debut for trainer Chad Brown after being off since an impressive win on the Breeders’ Cup undercard at Keeneland. The son of Into Mischief has never gone longer than 6½ furlongs and will be one to watch in the 1-mile Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct this weekend.
▪ Midnight Bourbon (45-1) has been battling Mandaloun and Proxy in New Orleans, finishing ahead of both in the Grade 3 Lecomte before finishing behind both in the more recent Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes at 1 1/8 miles. The Steve Asmussen-trainee and son of Tiznow will get another shot in the Louisiana Derby later this month.
▪ Prevalence (22-1) drops from our top 10 after a fever sidelined him from training last month. The Godolphin homebred — a son of Medaglia d’Oro — is still a Derby possibility for trainer Brendan Walsh, however, and he showed far too much promise in his maiden victory at Gulfstream Park in January to remove him from this list completely.
▪ Risk Taking (25-1) — another son of Medaglia d’Oro — won the Grade 3 Withers Stakes for Chad Brown and will go straight to the Wood Memorial in April in what his connections hope will be a final tune-up before Derby Day. Risk Taking seems to get better as the races get longer, and he should be a threat at the Derby distance.
▪ Roman Centurion (30-1) came from the back — his customary running style — to make a run at Medina Spirit in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes, but he fell short by a neck. Simon Callaghan trains the son of Empire Maker. The San Felipe Stakes — and a matchup with Life Is Good — appears to be next.
▪ Rombauer (75-1) came from California to finish fifth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Keeneland, and he won his first 2021 start two weeks ago, a victory in the El Camino Real Derby for trainer Michael McCarthy. The son of Twirling Candy came from a dozen lengths back in last place to win that one with a late charge. Rombauer doesn’t have his next start inked in just yet, but he’s an intriguing contender out on the West Coast.
▪ Spielberg (50-1) has had an uneven Derby prep season, but he’s back on the radar for Bob Baffert after finishing a nice second to Essential Quality in the Southwest Stakes on Saturday. The son of Union Rags got off to a poor start before rallying in that one, and he also beat The Great One two races back.
▪ The Great One (15-1) broke his maiden on the fifth try for trainer Doug O’Neill with a 14-length romp at Santa Anita on Jan. 23, but the son of 2016 Derby winner Nyquist will get a much tougher test against Life Is Good and others in the San Felipe this weekend.
This story was originally published March 1, 2021 at 7:00 AM.
