The Kentucky Derby picture was muddled over the weekend. Here are the latest odds.
An interesting weekend on and off the track has thrown a wrench into the Kentucky Derby picture.
A few hours before the Louisiana Derby went to post Saturday evening, word came out of California that Life Is Good — the undefeated Kentucky Derby favorite heading into the spring — would miss the May 1 classic at Churchill Downs with an injury.
Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert — in search of his record seventh Kentucky Derby victory — said he expects Life Is Good to be back to racing later this year, but the announcement that arguably the top star of this budding 3-year-old class would be off the trail was a major blow to the Derby landscape.
It was also unwelcome news to early bettors.
Life Is Good — the son of Into Mischief, who sired 2020 Derby winner Authentic — ended up as the 2-1 favorite in the most recent Derby Future Wager pool, a stunningly short price on a horse two months before the race. In fact, that was the shortest price in the 23-year history of the March edition of the Derby Future Wager. That is now a lost wager for those bettors.
Last week’s futures sheet from the William Hill sportsbook had Life Is Good as the 7-2 favorite. Obviously, he’s no longer on that sheet, and Monday’s updated Derby odds from William Hill listed Essential Quality as the 4-1 favorite for the race.
Essential Quality — trained by Louisville native Brad Cox — is the reigning and undefeated champion of this 3-year old class after winning the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Keeneland last fall. He returned to the track and won his 2021 debut in impressive fashion this month with a 4 ¼-length victory in the Southwest Stakes.
Next up for Essential Quality will be the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland on April 3, his final tuneup before the Kentucky Derby four weeks later. The Keeneland Spring Meet is set for opening day April 2, and entries for the Blue Grass Stakes will be drawn March 30.
Essential Quality has impeccable credentials, but he’s not a lock for Kentucky Derby favoritism, even if he wins the Blue Grass Stakes in a couple of weeks.
Concert Tour, also trained by Baffert, looked tremendous winning the Rebel Stakes this month and will be the favorite in the Arkansas Derby on April 10. He’s next on the William Hill sheet at 6-1 odds for the Kentucky Derby.
And then there’s Greatest Honour, who has won the Holy Bull and Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park this winter. He’ll be the Florida Derby favorite this weekend for Hall of Fame trainer Shug McGaughey. Greatest Honour is third choice on the William Hill sheet at 8-1 odds.
Going into the Louisiana Derby on Saturday, there were only five horses with shorter Kentucky Derby odds on the William Hill sheet than Mandaloun at 16-1. He went off as the 6-5 favorite at Fair Grounds and never fired, finishing a disappointing sixth in the eight-horse race. Mandaloun is now 30-1 on William Hill’s sheet for the Derby.
The Louisiana Derby winner, Hot Rod Charlie, saw his Kentucky Derby futures odds shorten from 30-1 to 12-1 after the impressive victory. He earned a 99 Beyer Speed Figure for Saturday’s win, the highest such speed figure for any horse still on the Derby trail. (Life Is Good ran 107 and 101 Beyers in his two victories this year).
The fifth choice for the Kentucky Derby, according to the William Hill sportsbook, is Prevalence at 14-1 odds. The Brendan Walsh trainee made his career debut in late January and is 2-for-2 so far. He’s expected to run in one of the 100-point races on the Derby prep calendar — likely the Wood Memorial or Arkansas Derby — though no specific race has been confirmed.
Keeneland Spring Meet
When: April 2-23 (racing Wednesdays through Sundays, except Easter Sunday)
Key info: Ticket sales will be limited because of COVID-19. Visit Keeneland.com/tickets for details.
Key dates: The Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (Kentucky Derby prep) and Central Bank Ashland Stakes (Kentucky Oaks prep) will both be contested April 3. The Grade 1 Maker’s Mark Mile is set for April 9 and the Grade 1 Coolmore Jenny Wiley for April 10.
This story was originally published March 22, 2021 at 12:45 PM.
