Looking for a Kentucky Derby long shot? These are the best bets to win big money
While the 2026 edition of the Kentucky Derby appears to be a relatively wide-open race, there’s still a clear top tier of contenders.
Arkansas Derby winner Renegade is the morning-line favorite and will look to become the first horse in 40 years to win the Derby from the No. 1 post position. Santa Anita Derby winner So Happy, Florida Derby winner Commandment and Blue Grass Stakes winner Further Ado are all drawing big win money in the early wagering, and The Puma — runner-up in the Florida Derby — is among the top choices, as well.
The more lightly raced Chief Wallabee and Emerging Market have also emerged as “buzz” horses this week, and their odds have stuck around the 10-1 range in the early betting.
But what about the long shots?
Finding the right horse to hit the board at a big number on Derby Day would provide quite a thrill, and it happens more often than not. As you finalize your picks leading up to Saturday’s 6:57 p.m. ET post time, here are a few long-shot bets to consider.
Picking a long shot to win
The most likely scenario is that one of those aforementioned Derby contenders will be wearing the roses in Louisville on Saturday night, but recent runnings of the race have provided surprises.
Mystik Dan won the 2024 Derby at 18-1 odds. Mage was the winner as a 15-1 shot the year before that. Rich Strike shocked the racing world as the 81-1 winner in 2022, and Country House was declared the winner via DQ at odds of 65-1 three years earlier.
So don’t be surprised if a horse with longer odds finds his way to the finish line first.
Who’s the most likely long shot in this field to pull off an upset?
Of the contenders at odds of 20-1 or longer, Potente is an intriguing choice.
Purchased for a whopping $2.4 million as a yearling — the highest price tag, by far, of any horse in this field — Potente didn’t make his on-track debut until Jan. 31, winning a maiden race at Santa Anita Park.
The son of Into Mischief — sire of three of the past six Derby winners — returned to that track a few weeks later for his first stakes race, and he won that one, too, beating a San Felipe Stakes field that included So Happy and earning an 89 Beyer Speed Figure for his effort.
So Happy turned the tables on Potente in the Santa Anita Derby on April 7, but the runner-up that day ran closer to the pace in the early going and showed some real fight in the stretch before So Happy passed him for the victory.
Potente, whose damsire, Awesome Again, won the Breeders’ Cup Classic at Churchill Downs in 1998, turned in a bullet workout in his first serious go around the Louisville track last weekend, a promising sign for a colt who will be running his first race away from Santa Anita Park.
Those speed numbers have improved over each of his first three starts, topping out at 95 in the Santa Anita Derby, and a similar jump Saturday would likely put him in the thick of things at the end. It’s also fair to project that lessons learned in his last start could lead to better results in his fourth career race.
Oh, and his trainer? It’s Bob Baffert, who has six Kentucky Derby victories on his résumé and brings Potente to Louisville as his best shot at a record-breaking seventh win in the race.
As of this writing, Potente was sitting at 24-1 in the early Derby wagering. Those seem like mighty long odds for a clearly talented colt out of the Baffert barn on the first Saturday in May.
Betting tips for the Derby trifecta
Even if Renegade, Commandment, Further Ado or one of the other favorites wins the Kentucky Derby on Saturday, the exotic payoffs could still be significant.
A couple recent examples of lucrative tickets with a favorite on top:
- Authentic won the 2020 Derby at 8-1 odds, with 3-5 favorite Tiz the Law coming in second, but the $1 trifecta still paid more than $1,300, thanks to Mr. Big News finishing in third place at 46-1 odds.
- Always Dreaming won the 2017 Derby as the 9-2 favorite, but 2-3 finishers that day were Lookin At Lee (33-1) and Battle of Midway (40-1). A $1 trifecta bet paid more than $8,000, even with the race favorite on top.
In seven of the past nine Derbys, a $1 trifecta bet has paid at least $982. And until last year, at least one horse with odds of 15-1 or longer had finished in the top three in each of the previous six Derbys.
The superfecta — correctly picking the 1-2-3-4 finishers in the race — can also be a lucrative endeavor on Derby Day, even if a few of the top choices end up on the board.
Last year’s race featured Sovereignty (7-1), Journalism (the 3-1 favorite) and Baeza (13-1) in the top three. The $1 trifecta paid $231 as a result of that rather chalky finish. But Final Gambit finished fourth at 17-1 — not that long of a shot — and the $1 superfecta paid nearly $1,700.
It’s important to note that win pools are different from exacta, trifecta and superfecta pools, so the odds you see next to a horse’s name on Derby Day won’t correspond exactly to his value in the exotic bets. But those win odds are typically a pretty good indicator of who’s a long shot and who isn’t when it comes to the trifecta wagers.
That said, here are a few candidates — in addition to Potente — to hit the board and spice up an exotic wager this year (with each horse’s morning-line odds):
- One of the best ways to work a long shot into your exotic wagers on Derby Day is to find a horse that likes to come from the back of the pack, should have plenty of tolerance for the distance and will be in a position to pass the inevitable parade of tired horses that can’t hold on in this grueling test. Right to Party (30-1) showed that kind of style with his second-place finish in the Wood Memorial. That was admittedly one of the weaker major Derby preps — perhaps the weakest — but we’re not looking for a winner here; we’re just looking for a horse to hit the board at a big price, and Right to Party might fit that bill.
- Golden Tempo (30-1) is another late closer that shouldn’t be anywhere near the early speed and has already shown a penchant for running down others at the end. He’s improved over each of his previous four starts — always a good sign leading into the Derby — and the son of Curlin is incredibly well-bred for the distance. The far outside post shouldn’t be worrisome, since jockey Jose Ortiz will surely look to angle toward the rail in the early going and let others race to the first turn. Louisiana Derby winner Emerging Market might be the buzziest horse of Derby week, and he beat Golden Tempo by only a length in that race. Don’t ignore him.
- The only horse in this field to win twice at Churchill Downs is Incredibolt (20-1), and he would be getting a lot more attention if his performance two races back had gone differently. As one of the favorites in the Holy Bull Stakes — his first race in three months — Incredibolt basically stopped running, and trainer Riley Mott said afterward that he came out sound, offering no excuses for the head-scratching performance. In need of Derby qualifying points, Mott sent his colt to the mid-tier Virginia Derby, where he turned in one of the most visually pleasing performances of the prep season, beating that field by 4 lengths. The seven-week layoff from there to here would be a modern Derby record for a winner, but, again, we’re looking for a big number to hit the board, and this guy certainly has talent. He should be fine with the Derby distance, and the Churchill experience adds some spice to his profile.
- This one could very well get caught up in a blistering pace battle, but Pavlovian (30-1) showed tremendous grit in his Derby prep season, most recently setting a fast pace in the Louisiana Derby before giving way — but just barely — to Emerging Market, who beat him by a head at the wire. With a staggering seven starts as a 2-year-old (and three more in 2026), he’s the most experienced colt in this field by a good margin. That’s not necessarily a positive, but it is interesting that Pavlovian’s speed numbers have greatly improved over the course of his 3-year-old season, and his trainer, Doug O’Neill, has already won the Kentucky Derby twice. Expect him to be closer to the front in the early going — and that could be dangerous — but he looks like the sort to fight like heck down the stretch, even if he’s running out of gas. It wouldn’t be a total surprise to see him in the mix as they near the wire.
