Do turnovers really even out over time in college football?
In case you haven’t heard, the Kentucky football team is having trouble with turnovers this season.
Out of the 130 teams playing FBS football in 2021, the Wildcats rank 129th in turnover margin at minus-9, or minus-2.25 per game.
Last year, Kentucky ranked 12th nationally in turnover margin at plus-10, or plus-0.91 per game.
This would seem to confirm the theory that turnovers even out over time. It’s just the way the ball bounces. Some seasons, it bounces your way. Some seasons, it doesn’t.
But is that true?
Here’s a list of where the top teams in turnover margin last season (2020) rank so far this season (2021).
Now here’s a list of how the worst teams in 2020 turnover margin are faring in 2021.
Yes, after ranking No. 121 in 2020, Oregon leads the nation in turnover margin so far in 2021.
OK, so you say 2020 was an aberration. Because of the coronavirus pandemic, there were not as many games played. Many of those games were played among conference opponents only. Other factors might have skewed the numbers, as well.
So here’s a look at the last two so-called normal seasons. The following chart looks at how the top teams in turnover margin for the 2019 season fared in 2018.
Last but not least, here is where Kentucky has ranked in turnover margin during Mark Stoops’ nine seasons as UK coach.
This story was originally published September 28, 2021 at 4:16 PM.
