Kentucky must do these three things to make a deep run in the NCAA Tournament

As we know by now, Kentucky begins its quest for a ninth national championship on Thursday night against Oakland in a first-round game of the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament.

If John Calipari’s team is to make a deep tourney run, it says here the following three things must happen:

1. Kentucky must force more turnovers

The Cats have to play better defense. You don’t have to be a Basketball Bennie to figure that out. At the conclusion of Tuesday night’s games, Ken Pomeroy’s metrics had dropped Kentucky to a 110th national ranking in adjusted defensive efficiency. Images of Texas A&M’s guards driving non-stop to the basket in the SEC Tournament still trigger BBN nightmares.

Where might this improvement come? Forcing turnovers is one often overlooked area. The Cats are not very good at that, either. In fact, they rank 252nd nationally in defensive turnover percentage.

In five of its nine losses, Kentucky forced the opponent into fewer than 10 turnovers. When Florida, Tennessee and Gonzaga became the first teams to beat the Cats in three consecutive games at Rupp Arena, the victorious trio committed a combined 26 turnovers. On the flip side: In Kentucky’s 23 victories, just four victims committed fewer than double-digit turnovers.

In Nashville, Texas A&M turned the basketball over just six times, which led to just four Kentucky points off turnovers. Not only that, a lack of forced turnovers means a lack of empty possessions by opponents. If the Cats are going to get where they want to go in this tournament, that has to change.

2. Kentucky must make 3-pointers

There’s one glaring stat from Kentucky’s NCAA first-weekend exits the past two seasons. In the loss to No. 15 seed Saint Peter’s in 2022, the Cats were just 4-of-15 from 3-point range for 26.7 percent. In the loss to No. 3 seed Kansas State last season, the Cats were just 4-of-20 from 3-point range for 20 percent.

This Kentucky team is a much better 3-point shooting team than those two Kentucky teams. In fact, Calipari’s club leads the nation in 3-point accuracy at 41.2 percent. It averages 9.9 made threes per game, up from 6.0 last season.

Consider that 2021 NCAA champion Scott Drew and Baylor led the nation in 3-point shooting at 41.3 percent. When Tony Bennett and Virginia won the 2019 title, the Cavaliers were No. 8 nationally in 3-point shooting at 39.5 percent. When Jay Wright and Villanova cut down the nets in 2018, the Wildcats were No. 11 nationally in 3-point shooting at 40.1

To win in the NCAA Tournament, you must be able to score. And to score these days, you must make perimeter shots.

3. Kentucky must play like road dogs

When we asked Bruiser Flint a couple of weeks ago why Kentucky played better on the road than at home, the UK assistant coach scoffed. “I don’t know where you got that narrative,” he said.

Well, how about the fact that the majority of the Cats’ most impressive wins this season came on the road. In fact, Kentucky won games on the home court of four teams in the NCAA Tournament’s 68-team field — 87-85 at Florida on Jan. 6; 70-59 at Auburn on Feb. 17; 91-89 at Mississippi State on Feb. 27 and 85-81 at then No. 4-ranked Tennessee on March 9.

Plus, the Cats were underdogs in all four of those games. Florida was a 3.5-point favorite in Gainesville. Auburn was an 8.5-point favorite at Auburn. Mississippi State was a 4.5-point favorite in Starkville. SEC regular season champion Tennessee was an 8.5-point favorite in Knoxville. Kentucky beat the odds against all four.

That’s the mentality this young team must take to Pittsburgh. History says BBN will turn out to support the Cats in the postseason, but not to the same degree we see at Rupp Arena or at the SEC Tournament. And UK’s mindset must be that it is the road team that few expect to win. That formula has worked this season. It can work again.

Thursday

No. 3 seed Kentucky vs. No. 14 seed Oakland

What: NCAA Tournament South Regional

When: 7:10 p.m. EDT

Where: PPG Paints Arena in Pittsburgh

TV: CBS-27

Records: Kentucky 23-9, Oakland 23-11

All-time series: First meeting

This story was originally published March 20, 2024 at 1:14 PM.

John Clay

Lexington Herald-Leader

859-472-4218

John Clay is a sports columnist for the Lexington Herald-Leader. A native of Central Kentucky, he covered UK football from 1987 until being named sports columnist in 2000. He has covered 20 Final Fours and 42 consecutive Kentucky Derbys. Support my work with a digital subscription