How Kentucky and No. 1 Alabama match up — with a game prediction
How the Kentucky Wildcats (3-4 SEC) and No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide (6-0 SEC) match up at each position — with a game prediction:
Quarterbacks
After missing the Georgia game with an injury, Kentucky senior Terry Wilson (64.7% completions for 712 yards with six touchdown passes vs. one interception; 68 rushes for 344 yards and four TDs) reclaimed the starting job last week. The 6-foot-3, 202-pound product of Oklahoma City, Okla., turned in a sharp performance in UK’s 38-35 win over Vanderbilt, completing 13 of 15 passes for 110 yards and two TDs and rushing seven times for 83 yards and a score. Alabama redshirt junior Mac Jones (78.5% completions for 2,196 yards with 16 TD passes vs. two picks) has played his way into Heisman Trophy contention. Originally, a UK recruiting commit, the 6-3, 214-pound Jacksonville, Fla., product needs one more 400-yards passing game this season tie to the SEC record of four in one year held by Tim Couch (1998), Johnny Manziel (2013) and Joe Burrow (2019).
Advantage: Alabama.
Running backs
Redshirt sophomore Christopher Rodriguez (562 rushing yards, six TDs, 6.4 yards per carry average) has been the breakout offensive star of the 2020 Kentucky season. The 5-11, 224-pound product of McDonough, Ga., has produced back-to-back 100-yards-plus rushing games — 108 vs. Georgia; 149 with two TDs against Vanderbilt. Alabama star Najee Harris is second in the SEC in rushing yards (714) and leads the league in rushing TDs (14). The 6-2, 230-pound senior from Antioch, Calif., needs 40 yards vs. UK to pass Trent Richardson (3,130 career yards) for seventh on the all-time Crimson Tide rushing list and 171 yards to move ahead of Mark Ingram (3,261) for sixth. With 20 receptions for 183 yards, Harris is also dangerous in the passing game.
Advantage: Alabama.
Wide receivers
Kentucky redshirt freshman DeMarcus Harris had a team-high four catches, albeit for only 33 yards, vs. Vandy. The 6-1, 183-pound product of Vero Beach, Fla., is now second on the UK team in receptions (14). Alabama star DeVonta Smith is second in the SEC in receptions (56), receiving yards (754) and TD catches (eight). The 6-1, 175-pound senior from Amite, La., is the top-rated WR in college football this season by Pro Football Focus. With the injured Jaylen Weddle out for the season, sophomore John Metchie (24 catches, 517 yards, three TDs) has emerged as Bama’s “stretch the field” receiver. The 6-foot, 190-pound Canadian has gone for 15 yards or more on 14 of his 24 catches.
Advantage: Alabama.
Tight ends
Both primary Kentucky tight ends caught touchdowns in the win over Vanderbilt. Senior Justin Rigg (eight catches, 65 yards, one TD) caught a 15-yard TD from Terry Wilson, while redshirt sophomore Keaton Upshaw (seven, 90, two) hauled in a 21-yard scoring pass. When Alabama’s scheduled game last week with LSU was postponed due to COVID-19 issues in the Tigers program, the Crimson Tide’s Miller Foristall (10, 141, one) made productive use of the time off: He received a yes from girlfriend Abby Lutzenkirchen to his proposal of marriage.
Advantage: Even.
Offensive line
Due to injuries, Kentucky backup guards Austin Dotson, the former Belfry standout, and Quintin Wilson were pressed into major playing time in the victory over Vanderbilt. For Wilson, a 6-1, 294-pound redshirt sophomore from Cincinnati, it was his most extensive action as a collegian. “I thought Quintin did a nice job,” UK Coach Mark Stoops said. “He played hard and did some good things.” Alabama’s offensive front has drawn raves in 2020. Left tackle Alex Leatherwood, left guard Deonte Brown and center Landon Dickerson are All-America candidates.
Advantage: Alabama.
Defensive line
Kentucky senior tackle Phil Hoskins (17 tackles, one tackle for loss, two quarterback hurries, one interception) had six tackles and a QB hurry vs. Vanderbilt. Alabama hopes to have standout end LaBryan Ray (11 tackles, 0.5 sacks, one QB hurry) back after he missed the prior three games with a sprained elbow. “I think it’s a matter of how confident he feels with it, in terms of his ability to use [the elbow],” Alabama Coach Nick Saban said of Ray. “Does he feel like he has enough strength to be able to go in there and play?”
Advantage: Alabama.
Linebackers
Kentucky MBL Jamin Davis (team-high 73 tackles, two TFL, one sack, two interceptions) had 15 tackles vs. Vandy, his fifth straight game with double-digit stops. Playing in place of an injured DeAndre Square, WLB Marquez Bembry made 10 stops vs. the Commodores. Alabama MLB Dylan Moses leads the Tide in tackles (50, with 5.5 TFL, 1.5 sacks and a pick). SLB Christopher Allen leads in TFL (six) and sacks (two).
Advantage: Alabama.
Defensive backs
Kentucky free safety Yusuf Corker (53 tackles, two TFL, one pass breakup) had 10 tackles vs. Vanderbilt, while strong safety Tyrell Ajian (31 tackles, one pass breakup, one interception) had six stops. Alabama cornerback Patrick Surtain (22 tackles, five pass breakups, a fumble recovery, a pick) has surrendered 25 yards or fewer in five of six games. Freshman nickleback Malachi Moore (28 tackles, three TFL, six pass breakups) has a nose for the football: He has two picks and a forced fumble.
Advantage: Alabama.
Special teams
With both of Kentucky’s starting kickers sidelined vs. Vanderbilt, the backups came up big. Redshirt sophomore place-kicker Chance Poore was named SEC Special Teams Player of the Week after cashing all five PATs and a 28-yard field goal. Punter Colin Goodfellow averaged 46.3 yards on three kicks. All-America punter Max Duffy is not expected back this week, Mark Stoops said Monday. Alabama place-kicker Will Reichard is perfect on the season, 8-of-8 on field goals (with a long of 52 yards) and 37-of-37 on PATs. Punter is another story. Charlie Scott (36.8 yards a kick) and Sam Johnson (35.4) have split the job. As a team, the Crimson Tide are last in the SEC in punting, averaging only 35.9 yards a kick. The Tide is 10th in the league in punt returns, 13th in kickoff returns.
Advantage: Even.
Prediction
Alabama 45, Kentucky 13.
This story was originally published November 19, 2020 at 7:30 AM.
