How Kentucky and Louisville match up — with a game prediction
How the Kentucky Wildcats (1-5) and Louisville Cardinals (5-1) match up at each position for their annual rivalry showdown — with a game prediction:
Small forward
▪ Kentucky’s Brandon Boston (14.5 ppg, 6.3 rpg, 37.9% FGs, 17.2% treys) had 15 points, seven rebounds and two assists (vs. two turnovers) in UK’s 75-63 loss to North Carolina last Saturday. However, the 6-foot-7, 185-pound freshman from Norcross, Ga., continues to struggle with his outside shot. He went 0-of-3 on three-point attempts vs. Carolina and is now 5-of-29 on treys for the season.
▪ Louisville’s Dre Davis (9.5 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 47.5% FGs, 27.8% treys) hit seven of nine shots, two of three treys and scored 21 points in U of L’s 75-54 beat down of Western Kentucky on Dec. 1. However, in the two games since then — an 85-48 destruction by Wisconsin last Saturday and a 64-54 win over short-handed Pittsburgh on Tuesday night — the 6-5, 220-pound freshman from Indianapolis has gone a combined 3-of-11 from the floor, 0-of-5 on treys and committed seven turnovers.
Advantage: Kentucky.
Power forward
▪ Kentucky’s Isaiah Jackson (5.8 ppg, 8.7 rpg, 2.5 blocks, 45.2% FGs) has seen his effectiveness dissipate in recent games. The 6-10, 206-pound freshman was active and productive (nine points, 12 rebounds, four assists) in UK’s 79-62 loss to Georgia Tech on Dec. 6. In part due to foul trouble, the Pontiac, Mich., product has been on the court for only a combined 31 minutes in UK’s two subsequent games, losses to Notre Dame and North Carolina, while scoring a total of four points.
▪ Louisville’s Samuell Williamson (11 ppg, 7 rpg, 50% FGs, 81.8% FTs) missed two games with a dislocated big toe, but seemed to find his game in Tuesday night’s win at Pitt. The 6-7, 210-pound sophomore from Rockwall, Texas, had 14 points and 12 rebounds, though he did commit four turnovers. In UK’s 78-70 overtime victory over U of L last year in Rupp Arena, Williamson — a 2019 McDonald’s All-American — went scoreless in eight minutes.
Advantage: Louisville.
Center
▪ A transfer from Wake Forest, Kentucky’s Olivier Sarr (10.7 ppg, 5.7 rpg, 55.6% FGs) must feel like he never left the ACC. U of L will be the fourth straight Atlantic Coast Conference foe UK has faced. A 7-foot, 237-pound senior from Bordeaux, France, Sarr will be trying to bounce back from a forgettable showing vs. North Carolina. Limited to 19 minutes by foul trouble, Sarr did not attempt a field goal and finished with two points and four rebounds. In three prior games, all losses, vs. Louisville while playing for Wake, Sarr averaged 7.3 ppg and 5.3 rpg and made seven of 14 shots.
▪ Louisville Coach Chris Mack was bullish on redshirt freshman Jae’Lyn Withers in the preseason, telling The Blue Ribbon College Basketball Yearbook that the talent level of the 6-8, 230-pound redshirt freshman “is enormous.” With Louisville senior big man Malik Williams sidelined by a foot injury, Withers, a Charlotte, N.C., product, has backed up his coach’s excitement, averaging 9.8 ppg and 6.5 rpg while converting 53.5% of his field-goal attempts.
Advantage: Kentucky.
Shooting guard
▪ With Kentucky struggling to find an offensive identity, freshman Terrence Clarke (12.5 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 13 assists, 20 turnovers) has been tasked by John Calipari with assuming more ball handling and distribution responsibilities. Against North Carolina, that did not go well. In 25 minutes vs. the Tar Heels, the 6-7, 194-pound Boston product had no assists, three turnovers and made only three of 11 shots.
▪ Louisville’s David Johnson (13 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 4.3 apg, 26 assists/25 turnovers) has been turning the ball over at an alarming rate. The 6-5, 210-pound sophomore from Trinity High School had seven miscues at Wisconsin, then came back with six more at Pitt. Ball security aside, Johnson, the MVP of the 2019 Kentucky Boys’ Sweet Sixteen after leading Trinity to the state title, played well at Pittsburgh, finishing with 17 points and 11 boards.
Advantage: Louisville.
Point guard
▪ Kentucky’s Davion Mintz (8.8 ppg, 3 rpg, 36.2% FGs, 28.6% treys) is the only active, scholarship player on the UK roster with more assists (17) than turnovers (11). The graduate transfer from Creighton is coming off his best game in a Kentucky uniform. The 6-3, 196-pound product of Charlotte, N.C., had team highs of 17 points and eight rebounds vs. his home-state Tar Heels. A career 35% three-point shooter at Creighton, Mintz has yet to get his outside shot (8-of-28 treys) dialed in at UK.
▪ Louisville’s Carlik Jones (16 ppg, 6.4 rpg, 5.6 apg, 50% treys, 77.3% FTs) was rated the No. 1 graduate transfer in the country for 2020-21 by ESPN.com last spring and has so far lived up to that billing. Last season at Radford, the 6-1, 185-pound product of Cincinnati was the only player in college basketball who averaged at least 20 ppg (20.0), 5 rpg (5.1) and 5 apg (5.5). For U of L, Jones had 18 points, 11 rebounds and six assists in a 71-70 win over Seton Hall and 18 points, six boards and four assists in the victory over WKU. Historically, Kentucky’s defensive length often “swallows up” smallish guards. It will be fascinating to see how so accomplished a college player as Jones fares.
Advantage: Louisville.
Bench
▪ Kentucky freshman point guard Devin Askew (6.5 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 12 assists, 15 turnovers) played his best game yet vs. North Carolina — 12 points, four rebounds, three assists, a steal and a block. ... Freshman forward Lance Ware (1.2 ppg, 2.7 rpg) also showed promise (four points, seven rebounds) vs. UNC. ... Rhode Island transfer Jacob Toppin (2.7 ppg, 2 rpg) took six shots vs. North Carolina, making only one. ... Ex-Pendleton County star Dontaie Allen (1.8 ppg, 0.3 rpg) has not seen meaningful game action since committing three turnovers in four minutes vs. Georgia Tech.
▪ Louisville freshman JJ Traynor (7.2 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 57.7% FTs) was a hero of the one-point win over Seton Hall. The 6-8, 200-pound freshman from Bardstown hit two free throws with 5.1 seconds left to put U of L up three points. ... Sophomore forward Quinn Slazinski (6.3 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 38.7% FGs, 85.7% FTs) has logged three starts this season ... Sophomore point guard Josh Nickelberry (3 ppg, 50% treys) made his season debut at Pitt after missing the season’s first five games with a knee injury. ... Irish big man Aidan Igiehon (2.6 ppg, 1.6 rpg, 71.4% FGs) did not play against Pittsburgh after logging an average of 8.1 minutes a game in the first five contests.
Advantage: Louisville.
Intangibles and history
▪ Kentucky leads the all-time series with Louisville 37-16 and leads the modern series — since 1982-83 — 28-13.
▪ As UK head coach, John Calipari is 11-2 vs. U of L. As Louisville head man, Chris Mack is 0-2 against Kentucky.
▪ This will be UK’s first game on an opponent’s home court in 2020-21. In the Calipari coaching era, the Cats are 5-6 in their first true road game but Kentucky has won its past three such games.
▪ UK is seeking to avoid its first six-game losing streak since the 1988-89 Cats — Eddie Sutton’s final team — dropped six in a row in February en route to a 13-19 final record.
Advantage: Kentucky.
Prediction
Louisville 63, Kentucky 62.
