How Kentucky and Mississippi State match up — with a game prediction
How the No. 8 seed Kentucky Wildcats (9-15, 8-9 SEC) and No. 9 seed Mississippi State Bulldogs (14-13, 8-10 SEC) match up at each position for Thursday’s SEC Tournament second-round meeting — with a game prediction:
Small forward
▪ Kentucky’s Brandon Boston (team-best 12 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 36% FGs, 30.3% three-pointers, 78.5% FTs) had 21 points, four rebounds and three assists in UK’s 92-68 pounding of South Carolina in the regular-season finale. The 6-foot-7, 185-pound freshman from Norcross, Ga., made seven of 13 field goals and a season-high six of 10 three-pointers vs. the Gamecocks. The hot shooting reversed a late-season trend for Boston, who was only 11-of-44 overall, 4-of-21 on three-pointers, in the four prior games. In UK’s 78-73 double-overtime victory over Mississippi State on Jan. 2, Boston had 11 points on 4-of-13 shooting.
▪ Mississippi State freshman Derek Fountain (4.7 ppg, 2.5 rpg) has been a late-season insertion into the Bulldogs rotation. A 6-9, 210-pound product of Holly Springs, Miss., Fountain has started four of MSU’s final six games. Fountain opened eyes by going for 20 points, seven rebounds and two assists in MSU’s 94-80 loss to LSU on Feb. 10. He did not play in the first meeting with UK.
Advantage: Kentucky.
Power forward
▪ In Kentucky’s prior six games, freshman Isaiah Jackson (8.5 ppg, 6.8 rpg, 2.6 blocks) has averaged 14.3 ppg, 7.5 rpg and 2.2 blocks a game while making 28 of 43 field-goal attempts (65 percent). The 6-foot-10, 206-pound product of Pontiac, Mich., did all that while averaging only 22.8 minutes, mostly due to foul trouble. Jackson has had at least four fouls in four of the preceding six games. Jackson had two points, two rebounds and four blocks in the first game vs. Mississippi State.
▪ Mississippi State’s Tolu Smith (12.7 ppg, 8.6 rpg, 1.2 assists) is tied for first in the SEC with seven double-doubles. A 6-10, 245-pound redshirt sophomore from Bay St. Louis, Miss., Smith is a transfer who played his first collegiate season in 2018-19 for Western Kentucky. In the regular-season game against UK, Smith had 12 rebounds and three blocks but struggled offensively, scoring seven points on 2-of-11 shooting with four turnovers.
Advantage: Even.
Center
▪ Kentucky’s Olivier Sarr (10.7 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 47.3% FGs, 47.8% three-pointers) has played consistently down the stretch. In UK’s final 11 games, the Wake Forest transfer has scored in double figures eight times — and had nine points in two of the other games. The 7-foot, 237-pound product of Bordeaux, France, had a double-double against Mississippi State in Starkville, going for 14 points, 12 rebounds and two blocks.
▪ Mississippi State’s Abdul Ado (5.6 ppg, 6.3 rpg, 2.0 blocks) was voted by SEC coaches to the league All-Defensive Team. A 6-11, 255-pound redshirt senior from Lagos, Nigeria, Ado has started 124 of the 125 college games in which he’s played. His 236 career blocks are third in school history. Ado had five points, five rebounds and four blocks vs. UK in the first game.
Advantage: Kentucky.
Shooting guard
▪ In a difficult Kentucky season, Jacob Toppin (5.4 ppg, 3.6 rpg, 44.9% FGs) has been a pleasant surprise. In UK’s last five games, the Rhode Island transfer has averaged 8.0 ppg, including a 16-point performance in a road win at Vanderbilt. A 6-9, 194-pound product of Brooklyn, N.Y., Toppin has emerged as UK’s defensive stopper on the perimeter. Toppin had six points and four rebounds in the win at Mississippi State.
▪ Mississippi State’s Iverson Molinar (16.4 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 2.5 assists, 44.6% three-point shooting) is a dynamic scorer who has tallied 20 points or more in six games this season. A 6-3, 190-pound sophomore from Panama City, Panama, Molinar hurt Kentucky in the first game, scoring 17 points with five rebounds and five assists.
Advantage: Mississippi State.
Point guard
▪ Kentucky’s Davion Mintz (11.3 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 2.9 assists) is on a tear. In UK’s last five games, the graduate transfer from Creighton has averaged 16.8 ppg. In the victory over South Carolina, the 6-3, 196-pound product of Charlotte, N.C., hit six of 11 treys en route to his UK career high of 20 points. Moving to the point vs. the Gamecocks, Mintz had seven assists. In the first meeting with Mississippi State, Mintz scored seven points on 3-of-10 shooting and had four rebounds, four assists and five turnovers.
▪ Mississippi State’s D.J. Stewart (16.5 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 2.7 assists; 35.3% three-pointers) was chosen Second Team All-SEC by the league’s coaches. A 6-6, 205-pound redshirt sophomore from Grace, Miss., Stewart had 19 points, five rebounds and four assists vs. UK in January, but made only five of 16 field goals. MSU is 10-2 this season when Stewart, Molinar and Tolu Smith all score at least 10 points.
Advantage: Mississippi State.
Bench
▪ Kentucky’s Dontaie Allen (4.5 ppg, 1.5 rpg, 38.5% treys) torched State in Starkville, scoring 23 points on 8-of-13 shooting, 7-of-11 three-pointers. The 6-6, 198-pound Pendleton County product ended the regular season in an offensive drought, however. Since scoring 12 points in Kentucky’s loss at Alabama on Jan. 26, Allen has shot 2-of-18, 2-of-15 on treys. ... Freshman point guard Devin Askew (6.8 ppg, 2.8 rpg, 3 apg) had six points, three rebounds and two assists in 19 minutes coming off the bench vs. South Carolina. The 6-3, 198-pound product of Sacramento, Calif., played well vs. Mississippi State in January, going for 11 points with a career-high seven assists. ... Sophomore forward Keion Brooks (10.3 ppg, 6.9 rpg) missed the first Mississippi State game due to a calf injury.
▪ Mississippi State’s Jalen Johnson (5.2 ppg, 1.7 rpg, 37.3% treys) is well-traveled, having also played at Saint Louis and Louisiana-Lafayette. A 6-6, 210-pound redshirt senior, Johnson hit three of five treys and scored 14 points vs. UK in the first game. ...Though slight at 6-1, 165-pounds, freshman guard Deivon Smith (5.1 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 3.1 assists) is gritty. Smith had six points, seven rebounds, two assists and two steals in MSU’s season-ending, 78-71 loss at Auburn. ... State has ample post depth, with 7-foot, 240-pound sophomore Quinten Post (2.9 ppg, 2.3 rpg) and 6-9, 245-pound redshirt sophomore Javian Davis (2.6 ppg, 3.4 rpg). ... Wing Cameron Matthews (2.2 ppg, 2.5 rpg) has started eight games this season.
Advantage: Kentucky.
Intangibles and history
▪ Under John Calipari, Kentucky is 15-0 against Mississippi State, including a 75-74 overtime victory over the Bulldogs in the 2010 SEC Tournament finals. Mississippi State Coach Ben Howland is 1-8 vs. UK, 1-1 as UCLA head man and 0-7 at MSU.
▪ Calipari is 23-4 in the SEC Tournament; Howland is 3-4.
▪ Because of the coronavirus, attendance at the 18,500-seat Bridgestone Arena is capped at around 3,400. That will deny UK the normal overwhelming advantage in the stands that Kentucky fans usually provide the Cats at the SEC Tournament.
Advantage: Kentucky.
Prediction
Kentucky 70, Mississippi State 69.
